Today
DOLPHINS (+3) over Seahawks: At this price point, can head but one direction, as chasing rookie NFL QBs as favorites continues to be a steep, stressful thrill ride associated with negative-percentage expectations. Given Russell Wilson’s limited range, we will line up behind the Dolphins defenders, plus a trey, all day.
Packers (+2 1/2) over GIANTS: Have no doubt Eli Manning will enjoy a more positive outlook this week, off Big Blue’s bye, but find it hard to resist Packers as underdogs in revenge setting for last year’s playoff ouster.
BEARS (-1) over Vikings: QB Jay Cutler passed his concussion protocols and is expected to start. Responding to desperate need, Bears shuffling offensive line personnel. Appears there will be no Percy Harvin for the Vikings.
Raiders (+8 1/2) over BENGALS: Bengals usually aren’t asked to shoulder this caliber of burden — and we would be remiss if we didn’t observe this will serve as a Carson Palmer homecoming of sorts. Some Cincy staffers know the Raiders too, so this isn’t all one-way, but we would rather side with Palmer’s informed reads.
Steelers (-4) over BROWNS: Unlike last week’s distended menu of big numbers, the Week 12 weekend rundown features just two numbers over a TD, and but three over a field goal! Those frustrated by ungainly spreads should rejoice. Third-string Steelers QB Charlie Batch can game-manage this assignment just fine, thanks.
COLTS (-3) over Bills: Last week, we asked a good deal of radical improvement in a short time from these Colts, and their defense failed to bear the burden. Theoretically, this should be easier, and though we are bucking the fade-the-rookie-QB-as-fave meme, will make exception for Master Luck at this short a number.
CHIEFS (+10 1/2) over Broncos: This is an enormous home-dog spot — and it ought to be, if we are getting stuck with Brady Quinn at QB in the bargain. But if Chiefs don’t give it away, it’s within reach.
BUCCANEERS (+1) over Falcons: Respect those who take in the big picture, and thus aren’t easily swayed by short-term results, so wouldn’t be shocked by Falcons win. But once knocked off their rarefied pedestal by the Saints, Atlanta was life-and-death to hold off Arizona in a game they should have lost. Greg Schiano has revamped the Bucs, and these guys have cleaned house for a month. Tampa Bay doesn’t seem ideal place for Mike Smith (or underperforming RB Michael Turner) to get well.
Titans (-3) over JAGUARS: We weren’t shocked by Jags’ tough OT loss against Texans last week, and I like QB Chad Henne more than most do … but that stellar performance will be tough to reproduce … and off their bye, Tennessee’s talent is stronger than Jags’ duty roster replete with too many representatives from non-football factories.
CHARGERS (+1) over Ravens: Mixed signals, so will go with straight psychology/physiology. Ravens find themselves between Steelers engagements, and though they survived last week, they were beaten to pieces, and now must endure cross-country trip. Bolts beat them last year, and can stage encore performance.
Rams (+2 1/2) over CARDINALS: Despite return of Beanie Wells to Cardinals backfield — which will aid their running attack markedly — cannot lay with Ryan Lindley under center, given his level of performance when tossed to the wolves by Coach Ken Whisenhunt in last week’s fit of pique.
SAINTS (+2 1/2) over 49ers: Yeah, the Falcons were favored at the Superdome, too. How did that work out? On their best day, Niners are superior to Atlanta, but not sure they hold sway indoors in the teeth of furious playoff-revenge feelings after Niners put ’em away (beating the hell out of them) in Cali. Colin Kaepernick could make world of difference, but this isn’t Candlestick, where the Bears have been DOA time-and-again for a quarter-century. Expect Kaepernick to start, despite coach Jim Harbaugh’s coy public posturing.
TOMORROW
Panthers (+2 1/2) over EAGLES: Laying less than a field goal at The Linc to this foe may seem a bargain to some. Fools’ gold is more like it. This is supposed to be the night when the Eagles finally sort of put something together? Cam Newton and his Panthers are hungry too, and are looking to build resumes as opposed to simply playing out the string of one of the ugliest seasons in Philadelphia annals.
LAST WEEK: 8-5.
SEASON: 80-68-3.
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