Today
BENGALS (-3) over Cowboys: Given their adoring public, the necessary preliminary posture when Einsteining Dallas games is to determine if they’re enjoying marked schedule/statistical advantages. If not … accept the value offered, and try to beat them. Would need at least plus-6 to even consider Jones Boys, given Cinccinnati ascent … including their spanking of the Giants.
Saints (+5) over GIANTS: Coming off Monday’s come-from-ahead loss, Big Blue will be laser-focused. Saints QB Drew Brees has enjoyed marked success against the home side, even during his San Diego days. The Giants are fortunate they avoided New Orleans in the Superdome in last year’s playoffs, and grateful to face soft defense today — though one guided by former Giants coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, who has good idea how to best cope with Eli Manning.
Jets (-2 1/2) over JAGUARS: Defensive talent tends to hold up better than offensive when under extreme stress, so will lean slightly to Gang Green. But with a reset to Mark Sanchez as the starting QB, it’s tough to generate extreme confidence, especially with TE Dustin Keller out.
Ravens (+2 1/2) over REDSKINS: The Ravens may have a two-game lead in the AFC North, but they need to stay sharp since the schedule isn’t cake and both the Steelers and the Bengals figure to prevail today. The Redskins have slapped all three NFC East foes since being counted out, but we will see what they’re made of when favored in a pressure spot vs. a notoriously-physical foe. Terrell Suggs (torn bicep) is a game-time decision.
Chiefs (+6 1/2) over BROWNS: A Kansas City letdown after the Javon Belcher-provoked emotional surge would be no surprise. But we’ll fade the line move, with Chiefs coach Romeo Crennel and QB Brady Quinn harboring vengeful feelings after being bid adieu by the Browns. Though the Chiefs’ mental state likely will have a huge effect, this is a raw-value lay with the underdog.
STEELERS (-6) over Chargers: With the return of QB Big Ben Roethlisberger eagerly-awaited by the Heinz Field faithful, there’s not much left for the forlorn Chargers, who have established a tradition of bowing to AFC North types. The end of the line reportedly is approaching for San Diego coach Norv Turner and GM A. J. Smith.
Titans (+5 1/2) over COLTS: A marginal value read, though Titans QB Jake Locker needs to generate sustained confidence behind a shaky offensive line, while staying sharp against the resurgent Colts, who are achieving miraculous things with more than a little bit of Luck.
VIKINGS (+3) over Bears: The loss of Percy Harvin for the year is a severe blow to the Vikings, but RB Adrian Peterson has been monstrous off his remarkable recovery from knee surgery. Although the Bears’ special-team strengths are enviable, their out-of-sight 2012 advantage in generating turnovers is frankly unsustainable.
PANTHERS (+3 1/2) over Falcons: Atlanta has locked up the NFC South, and enjoys a pleasant cushion for conference home-field advantage. There’s little doubt Atlanta is dedicated to solidifying that advantage, but if the visitors are least bit off, Panthers QB Cam Newton is capable of torturing the lousy Falcons rush defense (4.8 yards per carry!).
Eagles (+7 1/2) over BUCCANEERS: Forlorn Philadelphia is in a classic “hang-in” spot, though the Eagles were flat-lucky to cover under similar conditions in Dallas on Sunday night. This would be an appropriate place for the Tampa Bay defense to demonstrate to coach Greg Schiano it can show up in a second half — but we will pay to see it.
Rams (+3) over BILLS: This is a wildly-popular underdog call, given clear-cut St. Louis improvement and the likelihood of the Bills’ anticipated exhale after their cruise past Jaguars.
Dolphins (+10) over 49ERS: It’s fair to anticipate a measure of bounceback by Jim Harbaugh’s crew. That said, if the revamped Dolphins offensive line holds up, the visitors’ secondary and running game can keep them in this, and it will be up to flashy 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick to avoid turnovers — the fatal flaw last week against the Rams.
Cardinals (+10) over SEAHAWKS: Having showcased Ryan Lindley’s shortcomings at quarterback, coach Ken Whisenhunt goes back to much-more-capable Fordhamite John Skelton, whose record as a starter is respectable. The Seahawks may exhale a tad after a lovely OT shocker at Soldier Field, especially without corner Brandon Browner.
Lions (+7) over PACKERS: There’s scant doubt the Packers will win this on the scoreboard, but Detroit’s skill people (operating above and beyond the Lions’ bad-mannered defensive louts) are accumulating tons of yardage while narrowly missing in one underdog role after another. This line provides plenty of cushion, given the caliber of Detroit’s offense.
TOMORROW
Texans (+3 1/2 ) over PATRIOTS: Don’t like this emphatic line move towards the visitors, but the Texans do some things better than the Patriots — especially given their superior defense, which doesn’t need to gamble to win. The Texans’ pass-rush effectiveness is critical in a hostile environment.
LAST WEEK: 6-9.
SEASON: 92-83-4.
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