If you want to know why Republicans and conservatives are in a political crisis, you need only consider the fact that the Right’s deeply held view now boils down to this: Taxes should not go up on the wealthy, and your health benefits should be cut.
Political folk talk a lot these days about “messaging” — a neologism designed to describe the way in which parties and politicians consciously characterize their efforts. It is only intended to be positive — i.e., “our messaging is designed to show we care.”
But what if there is very little way to convey a positive message with the policies you are advocating? What if your message is this: If we don’t do unpopular things, we are all going to die —
What of your “messaging” then?
The conservative movement and the GOP had better figure this out, and soon, because they are right on policy and horribly wrong on the politics.
And the politics are going to win out every time until the country is on the gallows and realizes its error.
As a matter of policy, increasing taxes on the most economically productive group, which already generates 60 percent of the nation’s federal revenues, during a sustained period of economic doldrums is a wretched idea.
Such an approach simply moves capital from the private sector to the public sector — which takes a huge bite out of it and then transfers the rest to others.
And as every sane person with an understanding of the trajectory of the federal budget understands, without sustained cuts in federally guaranteed medical benefits as the baby boomers retire en masse, first the states (including New York) and then the federal government are going to go belly-up.
So opposing tax hikes on the wealthy and advocating for benefit cuts are worthy and (especially when it comes to entitlements) nothing less than visionary.
But we just concluded an election in which the national candidate who spoke on behalf of these views lost by more than three points.
There’s a sense on the Right that the nation is ready to discuss entitlement cuts because the Democrats focused their nuclear weaponry on Paul Ryan for having proposed them and didn’t turn Ryan radioactive.
Yes, Ryan’s presence on the ticket didn’t mean Mitt Romney lost the votes of people over 65. But Romney and Ryan still lost. Their message didn’t kill them, but it didn’t work, either.
Now, as the Right tries to pick itself up and dust itself off and start all over again, it finds itself in the heat of a battle for which it is learning it is rhetorically and emotionally unprepared.
The “fiscal cliff” coming on Dec. 31 will automatically cause everyone’s taxes to rise and draconian defense cuts to go into effect. That leaves Republicans and conservatives having to fight a very public battle on these matters only weeks after a national defeat.
And they’ve somehow been maneuvered into arguing that benefits must be cut and taxes on the wealthy must not be raised — without having a single populist argument in their favor.
The only one that comes close is the invocation of the pain small businesses will experience from a tax hike. Fine, but unless you yourself are a small businessman or employed by one, you might not care all that much.
Thus, the political movement that came to maturity by advocating for dynamic American optimism has morphed into what it was at its most pinched and parched in the 1950s, ’60s, and ’70s: the eat-your-vegetables-and-shut-up party.
The bleak message fits the party’s bleak mood — and perhaps the bleak condition of the country going forward. But it can’t prevail over the false promise of better times if only the rich get soaked and we all come together in unity to borrow more money to send our kids to college.
There’s no light at the end of the tunnel in the Republican message, no promise of better things to come. There’s only the present stagnation, followed by a slow decline. The public will continue to live in fantasy rather than accept such a harsh reality. Right now, the GOP “messaging” is: Tough.
Yeah, that’ll work.