Political insiders are already counting MTA chief Joe Lhota as a Republican mayoral contender who could alter next year’s race for City Hall.
They’re also predicting that he will step down as head of the transportation agency next month in order to take his first stab at elective office.
Coincidentally, several months ago, a subway-fare increase planned for January was put back to March.
“Everyone expects him to run,” declared one Democratic official. “He’d be a serious candidate.”
“Watch Joe Lhota,” recommended another Democrat who is plugged into the mayoral contest.
Lhota, 58, who served as a first deputy mayor in the Giuliani administration, is riding high on his widely applauded performance restoring most of the subway system within days after Hurricane Sandy.
But despite four weeks of buzz about his possible candidacy, Lhota isn’t ready to announce a decision.
“He hasn’t told anyone what he’s going to do,” said one source.
“On the merits, it isn’t even close. He knows the job [of mayor] better than anyone running. The question is, can he get there? The numbers are overwhelmingly stacked against you if you’re a Republican.”
Lhota — slated to testify in Washington today about Sandy’s impact on the region’s transit network — would have to raise millions in a hurry to compete with other candidates who’ve been fund-raising for months. As luck would have it, his wife, Tamra, is a big-league fund-raiser.
One possible way to beat the fund-raising odds would be through independent-campaign expenditures, which aren’t bound by the strict limits set by the city’s Campaign Finance Board.
“It can be tricky,” observed one insider. “You can get a lot of money in a hurry, but then that becomes an issue in the campaign.”
Lhota would also probably have to secure a second-ballot line to lure hard-core Democrats to his side.
That’s what Mayor Bloomberg did in all three of his elections, always scoring the city’s Independence Party line.
Independence Party strategist Jacqueline Salit said she has yet to hear from Lhota.
A potential rival, former Bronx Borough President Adolfo Carrión, turned up at the party’s annual “anti-corruption awards” ceremony last weekend.
Business leaders are encouraging Lhota to run because, win or lose, he’d shake up the Democratic race and force its candidates to tilt to the middle.
“The real problem is [that] to win the Democratic primary, you have to go to the left, say things like there are two New Yorks,” said one political consultant. “Then you get to the full election, and you have to explain the radical things you’ve said [if there’s a serious Republican candidate].”