NASHVILLE, Tenn. — As we leave R.A. Dickey’s hometown, let’s rank his list of admirers, from big fans down to skeptics.
1. R.A. Dickey
2. The New York Mets
3. The 29 other Major League Baseball teams.
That’s where things appeared to stand as the Mets and the rest of baseball packed up their laptops, slide projectors and blazers and headed home to their respective quarters.
Sandy Alderson once again said yesterday going the middle road with Dickey — taking him into his free-agent season of 2013, as opposed to trading him or signing him to an extension — is not “necessarily the optimal result.” Yet because of the way Dickey is viewed by himself, the Mets and the rest of the industry, it may be the most sensible result.
“If that’s the one that ultimately transpires,” Alderson said, “then we may be happy with it.”
Dickey, the reigning National League Cy Young Award winner, has every right to aim high in his negotiations with the Mets, despite having just turned 38 in October. He wants a reasonable, two-year package beyond the $5 million he’ll make next season, for somewhere in the neighborhood of $15 million per season. The all-time list of knuckleballers is a small one, perhaps so small as to not merit any definitive conclusions, but you can’t ignore how many of these fellows have pitched effectively into their 40s.
Likewise, the Mets (thinking more like two years for $20 million to extend the fan favorite) are justified in asking for multiple talented young players in return for Dickey, who put together very strong 2010 and 2011 campaigns prior to his elite 2012. They’re offering a full season of him for a bargain-basement price, and if a team doesn’t extend him — an option which Dickey is amenable — then it can give Dickey a qualifying offer next November and recoup a draft pick if the right-hander declines.
Finally, you can’t blame other clubs for being wary of going overboard to acquire Dickey. Beyond even his advanced age, teams that are looking at a bigger picture than just 2013 — Kansas City, to name one — are loathe to trade prospects for someone under contract for one year. That’s why the Royals appear to be a better fit for someone like Tampa Bay’s James Shields, who can’t enter free agency (assuming his 2014 team option is exercised) for another two seasons.
So if the Mets don’t want to pay Dickey, and if teams won’t pay the Mets, that leaves Option C, keeping Dickey for 2013. It gives the 2013 Mets a better chance to be surprise contenders, obviously, and if that doesn’t work out, the Mets can shop Dickey again in July.
Or, if Dickey sticks around for the entirety of next season, then the qualifying offer dance can be conducted with the Mets, with a compensatory draft pick for 2014 waiting should Dickey depart as a free agent.
One official from a competing National League team, speaking on the condition of anonymity, opined the Mets would be making a mistake by taking this avenue. The Mets should either sell high on Dickey and get what they can for him in a trade, the executive said, or commit to him with the belief that the major-league team can contend sooner than later.
That’s an understandable way of looking at it. Nevertheless, the third way gives the Mets continued flexibility on both paths. Historically (think Zack Greinke from Milwaukee to the Angels last year or Cliff Lee from Seattle to Texas in 2010), teams do pretty well selling off frontline starting pitchers for even a couple of months’ work, so the Mets could still recoup something of value in a Dickey trade next year. And with Jason Bay and Johan Santana coming off the books a year from now, the Mets could compete for Dickey’s services in free agency if they chose to do so.
A resolution should be coming soon, and none of the three outcomes would be a shock. Yet it will take someone changing his valuation of Dickey — be it the Mets, another club or Dickey himself — to avoid carrying this saga over into next year.