The Yankees are intrigued by the possibility of obtaining Arizona’s Justin Upton.
And they should be.
Three of their best trades of the past two decades involved landing twentysomething outfielders who had fallen out of favor where they were — Paul O’Neill, Curtis Granderson and Nick Swisher. And, clearly, Upton is on the outs in Arizona.
Within the industry, there pretty much is zero doubt Upton will be traded, and the feeling recently was that the deal would come before the July 31 deadline.
But in a phone conversation, Arizona general manager Kevin Towers said, “There has been a lot of interest, but it probably is less likely that we would do anything at the deadline. It is something we will look at again in the offseason.”
There should be more interested teams then. The Braves, for example, very much want Upton, but Arizona has made it clear it wants to add left-side-of-the-infield players. For the Braves to obtain Upton would mean moving Martin Prado and helping one area of the team while harming another, which they won’t do. But they would in the offseason.
It is possible the Mets may even play for Upton in the offseason. They need a righty impact bat to join David Wright and balance the lefty-leaning lineup. Upton actually was the batboy for the AAU Virginia Blasters when his older brother, B.J., and Wright formed the double-play combo.
The Yankees definitely would be in during the offseason. But a deal before the deadline seems unlikely, according to Towers.
“I talk to [Yankees GM Brian Cashman] on a weekly basis. They’ve kicked the tires [on Upton]. But we have had no significant talks,” Towers said, before Yankees right fielder Nick Swisher strained a hip flexor Friday night in Oakland. “[Cashman] is pretty happy with the club he has now. I don’t sense he is going to make any big moves [before the deadline].”
Cashman’s style, in fact, has become to improve with trades in July (Lance Berkman, Kerry Wood, Jerry Hairston Jr.) and make big deals in the offseason (Granderson, Swisher, Michael Pineda).
In theory, the Yankees could deploy Upton in left now, since Brett Gardner almost certainly is out for the year. But the chemistry and production has been excellent without Gardner, largely because the left-field platoon of Raul Ibanez and Andruw Jones has worked superbly.
The Yankees do continue to worry about overexposing that older duo. But that could be addressed by either playing Dewayne Wise a bit more or acquiring a spare outfielder type. If Upton were to be obtained now, the Yankees would greatly diminish the at-bats and playing time of Ibanez, Jones and Eric Chavez, because left field would be locked down with Upton while Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter still would be DHing semi-regularly. And the Yankees don’t want to diminish the playing time for that effective veteran trio.
But if obtained in the offseason, Upton would just stay in his natural right field for 2013 with Gardner in left and Granderson in center. Swisher almost certainly is leaving via free agency, largely because the Yankees plan to drop under the $189 million luxury-tax threshold. Upton helps in that area because what is counted is the average annual value of a contract. So though Upton will be paid $9.75 million next year, $14.25 million in 2014 and $14.5 million in 2015, he only will cost the annual value of his long-term contract ($8.54 million) for luxury-tax purposes.
So the interest is understandable. But why is a player who was viewed as a Diamondbacks cornerstone — Upton finished fourth for the MVP last year and doesn’t turn 25 until August — even available?
“What does Towers know that we don’t?” one AL personnel man reasoned.
Towers insists he is just honoring his rep as a wheeler-dealer willing to discuss anyone in attempts to improve an overall roster. Yet there is some worry about the health of Upton’s shoulders, especially because he hit 31 homers last year and has seven now.
Also, though his contract is not onerous for a big-market team such as the Yankees, the big-dollar years are coming for an Arizona franchise looking to trim payroll. In addition, there was a whispering campaign, that reportedly originated from within the D’backs organization, questioning if Upton is a winning player and if he plays hard all the time.
Upton also has a four-team no-trade provision that reportedly includes the Yankees, but a person with ties to the outfielder said he does not see the clause being a huge hurdle because Upton is “pretty ready to go.”
Upton has been a key player on two playoff teams, has been a two-time All-Star and has avoided off-field trouble. Yet he is annoyed that he is booed at home.
“Maybe he is only 85 percent of the player they thought they were getting (with the 2005 overall No. 1 pick),” the source said, “but he is treated like he [stinks].”
The Reds and Tigers pretty much traded the homegrown O’Neill and Granderson, respectively, for the same reasons: Organizations got emotional believing the players were failing to fulfill superstar expectations. They wanted great and couldn’t appreciate very good. Swisher had a personality clash with then-White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen.
Upton has career statistics somewhat similar to those produced by O’Neill, Granderson and Swisher before their Yankees arrivals but is several years younger than those players were at the time of their trades. He almost certain is to exceed 3,000 career plate appearances before this, his age-24 season, is complete. Historically, almost all players who have done that have had long careers that, at minimum, were above average (Jones and Rodriguez are in that group, and so are players such as Adrian Beltre, Roberto Alomar, Robin Yount and Ruben Sierra).
In fact, through their age-24 seasons, Robinson Cano and Matt Kemp had stats similar to where Upton is now and, like the Diamondback outfielder, also were beset by underachiever questions. They, of course, have blossomed into superstars.
There is obvious risk in Upton. He may be trending the wrong way. His power is down dramatically and his OPS is 82 points lower than his career average. But O’Neill, Swisher and Granderson had an OPS between 48 and 62 points lower than their career norms in the season before being dealt to the Yankees. The dip is why they were available.
My suspicion is to get Upton would take a value package similar to the Austin Jackson/Ian Kennedy/Phil Coke group necessary to land Granderson from Detroit when, coincidentally, Arizona was the third team involved in the deal.
For the Yankees, I think it would take, at minimum, one of their best prospects, plus someone who can play shortstop now and a pitcher who could help immediately. So something like Mason Williams, Eduardo Nunez and David Phelps. Remember, Towers is pals with Cashman and knows the system well, having worked as a Yankees special assistant in 2010.
“It is hard to make these matches with clubs,” Towers said. “But it would be ridiculous not to listen.”
joel.sherman@nypost.com