The Yankees are not spending to honor their Steinbrenner-ian heritage. They are getting old and fragile in too many places. They are not developing suitable replacements from their system.
So they are vulnerable to free-fall next year, right?
“We have been saying the same thing for 10 years — ‘They are too old, this is the year they fall apart’ — and every year they win 90-something games and make the playoffs,” said an AL executive. “I am tired of this story. Would I want their rotation in 2015? No. But we are not playing the 2015 season next year. Their rotation is going to be very good in 2013. And I bet they figure a way to get to 800 or so runs again. You know what I just described? A playoff team.”
It has become an annual rite of winter — especially since Hal Steinbrenner has instituted some financial clamps — to put the Yankees on the back-to-the-future launching pad to 1965. I have been guilty of wondering about it in this space. Yet, despite the annual gloom, the Yankees have the best regular-season record over the last two years, three years, four years, five years, etc., etc.
And it is not difficult to see 2013 as their Waterloo, since they are facing more roster volatility than any time in at least the last decade. There is the age of Mariano Rivera, Andy Pettitte, Hiroki Kuroda, Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez. The return from surgery for Rivera, Jeter, A-Rod and CC Sabathia. The uncertainty behind the plate, in right field and on the left side of the infield, all of which threatens their offensive output.
A few worst-case scenarios transpire and the distance between the 2013 Yankees and 2012 Red Sox might not be that great, especially with the Blue Jays seemingly rising in an already-fierce AL East.
But there is an element of Lucy pulling away the football from Charlie Brown/are we making the same mistake again in prognosticating the Yankee demise?
Just an offseason ago, the Yankees, with their eye on that $189 million luxury tax threshold in 2014, shunned Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Mark Buehrle and C.J. Wilson, were called cheap and downgraded as contenders. Many of their worst-case scenarios did occur, including Michael Pineda missing the whole season, Rivera and Brett Gardner most of it, and Sabathia, Pettitte and A-Rod significant chunks.
Yet they won an AL-high 95 games.
“They had a lot of stuff go wrong and still won,” Rays manager Joe Maddon told me at the Winter Meetings. “They play well together. The perception is they are just a bludgeoning group. But they have good schemes. They utilize their bullpen expertly, pinch-hit at the right moments, have good platoon systems. They have the right guys against your guys at the right time. They were morphing into a more creative offense anyway.”
The Yankees, in fact, likely will have a little more resemblance to Tampa Bay next year, relying heavily on pitching and, perhaps, having to manufacture a bit more on offense, which might be possible with full seasons from Gardner, Ichiro Suzuki (likely to re-sign) and Eduardo Nunez. Hasn’t the complaint been the Yankees need to stop relying on the homer so much?
Another common complaint has been the Yankees were tied to too many long-term contracts, assuring age and lack of roster flexibility. Yet once they turn away from such mega-deals, they are criticized as well. Damned Yankees.
You could make a case — with the skyrocketing prices on the market — the three best free-agent signings so far were the Yankees getting Kuroda, Pettitte and Rivera on one-year deals. All would seem to be good bets to be highly productive for the only year for which they are signed and, thus, a lot less risky than, say, Zack Greinke. Here is a question: For the New York Yankees would you rather have Greinke, Kuroda or Pettitte for just 2013? If it is Greinke, it is not by enough to justify a $147 million outlay.
Sabathia, Kuroda and Pettitte promise a strong front three. The Yankees get Phil Hughes in his walk year, which often translates to best shape of his life. Ivan Nova and David Phelps are better fifth-starter options than a majority of teams will propose, and Pineda looms as a potential midseason surprise. All in all, this is a better rotation portrait than most.
Look, I think the Yankees should have re-signed Russell Martin and used their monetary might to win for versatile lefty killer Jeff Keppinger. But if they end up with Suzuki, Kevin Youkilis, Scott Hairston and Raul Ibanez, then they should still have lefty-righty diversity, probably a deep offense and no further clogging of their long-term financial arteries. It is one thing to scream the Yankees should spend, but if in this market they are not anteing up for Josh Hamilton — who may not want to leave Texas anyway — then who should they be spending on?
The Yankees might be facing their ruin next season. But haven’t we heard that a lot in recent years?