Oscar’s Best Actress race looks like a knock-down, drag-out fight between two young actresses — Jennifer Lawrence of “Silver Linings Playbook’’ versus Jessica Chastain of “Zero Dark Thirty.’’ Chastain, who got a supporting nod last year for “The Help,’’ is terrific as a determined CIA analyst who spends a decade hunting down Osama bin Laden while coping with condescending male superiors. But I’d give the edge to Lawrence (a Best Actress nominee for “Winter’s Bone’’), who plays to the academy’s preference for flashier roles in her performance as a young widow who sets her cap for a former mental patient. It also doesn’t hurt that she carried one of the year’s most popular popcorn movies, “The Hunger Games.’’
Daniel Day-Lewis’ towering performance in “Lincoln’’ looms large over the Best Actor race. His main obstacle is historical: Are Oscar voters comfortable making him the first three-time Best Actor winner in history? (He won previously for “My Left Foot” in 1990 and “There Will Be Blood’’ four years ago.)