There is no debating the job Rex Ryan has done this season. The Jets coach has taken a team expected to be at the bottom of the standings with a rookie quarterback and pushed it into playoff contention with seven games remaining in the regular season.
There is also no debate the job is not done.
Ryan has coached his butt off through nine games, but before we start throwing around contract extensions, can we let him finish the job?
A lot can happen between now and New Year’s and there is no reason why owner Woody Johnson needs to make a decision on 2014 now. Ryan is not about to become a free agent. His contract runs through next season, so there is no need to worry about him being lured away by another team.
Johnson and general manager John Idzik are taking the prudent course and waiting to see how this season plays out.
No one knows better than Johnson how a season and a coach’s fortune can change. Five years ago, Eric Mangini had the Jets at 8-3 coming off big wins over the Patriots and the previously unbeaten Titans. People wrote Mangini had earned a contract extension … and then the bottom fell out. Brett Favre hurt his arm, the team lost four of its final five and Mangini was fired the day after the season ended.
It seems unlikely that will happen to Ryan this season, but who knows in the NFL? Through nine games, Ryan has pushed the right buttons on most days with his 5-4 team. There were a few exceptions in Tennessee and Cincinnati, but overall Ryan has done some of his best work this season.
Clearly, Johnson has noticed. In his public comments, the owner has done nothing but praise Ryan. But there is no reason for him to draw up the paperwork on an extension yet. That would be like rating a restaurant after the salad and appetizers.
Ryan’s future depends on how he finishes. He needs to bring his team to the finish line, something he has failed at in each of the last two years. The Jets have gone 3-4 over their final seven in each of those campaigns, losing the final three games in both years.
Two years ago, the Jets were 8-5 and in control of their playoff lives when they collapsed in the final month of the season. That’s why Idzik’s mantra of living in the moment makes total sense. What happens if they give Ryan an extension this week and the Jets go on a three-game losing streak? The same people calling for him to be extended will be saying he should be fired.
Idzik and Johnson cannot afford to be as fickle as the fans and the media. Idzik has shown a deliberate approach since his hiring in January, and this is no different.
Idzik also does not want people to grow comfortable and complacent around the Jets — including Ryan. If you don’t think Ryan has been motivated by people calling him a lame duck entering this season, you don’t know him. Why take that chip off his shoulder now?
“In this league, whether it’s evaluating the quarterback position, evaluating anything you’re doing, if you have a feeling of contentment or complacency, you’re at risk,” Idzik said, “and we’re not going to have that feeling in this building. We’ll always push this train going forward.”
It is also worth pointing out Idzik will have a say in Ryan’s future, since some are minimizing his role in this decision. It is ultimately Johnson’s call, but Johnson is not Jerry Jones. He does not run the Jets on his own personal whims. He listens to those around him and builds consensus. Perhaps Ryan will make this a no-brainer and make a run deep into the playoffs. More likely, it will be a call that will be made by Johnson after he consults with Idzik, team president Neil Glat and his trusted adviser, Ira Akselrad, at the end of the year.
Will they keep Ryan if he misses the playoffs for three straight seasons? That is usually a formula for getting fired in the NFL. Marvin Lewis of the Bengals and Gary Kubiak of the Texans are the only current coaches who missed the playoffs three straight years during their tenures with those teams. Will they want to keep Ryan in charge of a defense that looks as if it could be a force for years to come? If Geno Smith is their quarterback of the future, do they worry about how a coaching change could affect him?
These are all questions that can’t be answered right now. So, let’s keep that contact extension in the drawer for at least another two months.