For several weeks, the Iranian media have promised on nearly a daily basis that “decisive talks” are “impending” on the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program.
In the talks, slated to start next week, Iran will face the “5+1 group”: the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, plus Germany.
The leadership in Tehran is certainly desperate for talks to start quickly — but seems far less eager for them to finish anytime soon. This is a change: Usually, whenever there’s talk of talks, Tehran has played reluctant debutante.
But now the regime needs the talks, for several reasons.
First off, fear of war has prompted a massive flight of capital, with banks in Dubai working overtime to launder Iranian money into the global financial mainstream.
Partly as a result of the same fears, the value of the Iranian rial has dropped almost 80 percent since 2010. This has boosted exports but made imports, including vital parts needed for the industry, more expensive. The result is mass unemployment in key provinces.
The atmosphere of crisis has boosted the morale of the opposition to the regime. For the first time in a decade, the possibility of regime change is a topic of conversation in political circles.
Another reason for fear is the effect of sanctions imposed by the United Nations, and separately by the United States and the European Union. The regime had long succeeded in sheltering its support base from most effects of the sanctions — but now even key constituencies such as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps are feeling the pain.
The psychological effect is also important. There is a sense of isolation, something Iranians loathe, as people realize that the regime has transformed Iran into a diplomatic pariah.
Talking with the 5+1 could help the regime on all those accounts. It would signal the opposition that the outside world is still prepared to accept the regime, warts and all. And the removal of some sanctions, promised by the Obama administration, could allay fears of economic collapse — and raise hopes that, over time, all sanctions will be scrapped.
The regime is keen on talks for yet another reason.
The spectacle of negotiations with major powers on an equal basis could help restore part of its legitimacy on the eve of this spring’s presidential election. With President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad not allowed to seek a third term, the field is open for rival factions to bring their barely hidden struggle for power into the open.
Ahmadinejad wants a diplomatic success before he leaves office, perhaps helping him propel one of his acolytes into the presidency. The fact that he controls the machinery of government, including the Interior Ministry (which organizes the elections) gives his faction an initial advantage.
For his part, “Supreme Guide” Ali Khamenei is trying to pre-register any possible success in the talks in his own name. He has announced that he, and he alone, is in charge of the nuclear dossier.
To hammer in that point, he has sent his national security adviser, Saeed Jalili, on a tour of every capital that will receive him to highlight the downgrading of Ahmadinejad and Foreign Minister Ali-Akbar Salehi.
With Jalili in charge of talks with the 5+1 group, Khamenei wants the process to continue through the presidential election — showing the nation that, as far as “vital issues” are concerned, who the president is at any given time makes little difference.
One thing the talks won’t produce is Iranian compliance with the demands of five unanimously passed Security Council resolutions. Even if willing, no one in Tehran is politically strong enough to stop uranium enrichment, dismantle sensitive facilities in Natanz, Fordow and Arak and ship all stocks of already enriched uranium out of Iran.
The projected talks, in which EU foreign affairs spokeswoman Catherine Ashton will lead the 5+1, are prompted by Iran’s domestic politics rather than a change of heart by the leadership.
As it has for the past three decades, Tehran will write the script for the talks — starting them when it needs to and stopping them when it wants, all the time laughing at Western leaders and pundits who crave to be duped.