This Sunday, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association will hand out the Golden Globes to the best in television and film. But sometimes the HFPA is a little, well, off the mark. So The Post’s film critics Lou Lumenick and Kyle Smith and TV Week editor Robert Rorke have dug into the nominations, filling you in on who they think will win and — perhaps more importantly — who should win.
THE CATEGORY: Best Motion Picture — Drama
THE NOMINEES: “Argo,” “Django Unchained,” “Life of Pi,” “Lincoln,” “Zero Dark Thirty”
THE PREDICTIONS:
Smith:
Will win: “Argo.” How could an organization calling itself the “Hollywood Foreign Press Association” turn down the chance to honor a film that’s simultaneously snarky and patriotic about la-la-land?
Should win: “Argo.” If only because we all love a good comeback story. Also, I’d really like to see Ben Affleck issue a public apology for “Pearl Harbor.”
Lumenick:
Will win: “Lincoln.” In recent years, Globe voters have tried very hard to predict the Oscar winner in this category. Most experts agree “Lincoln” is the front-runner at this point.
Should win: “Argo.” A far less tedious history lesson than “Lincoln.” And less polarizing than either “Zero Dark Thirty” or “Django Unchained.”
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RELATED: SEE WHAT THE POST’S FILM CRITICS & WRITERS ARE SAYING ON TWITTER ABOUT THE NOMINATIONS
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THE CATEGORY: Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture — Drama
THE NOMINEES: Jessica Chastain (“Zero Dark Thirty”), Marion Cotillard (“Rust and Bone”), Helen Mirren (“Hitchcock”), Naomi Watts (“The Impossible”), Rachel Weisz (“The Deep Blue Sea”)
THE PREDICTIONS:
Smith:
Will win: Toughie! One of these actresses survives a tsunami, another loses her legs, another attempts suicide and another has to be married to Alfred Hitchcock. Gotta go with Jessica Chastain, though, for playing the epitome of a tough gal in “ZD30.”
Should win: Naomi Watts. It’s a deeply moving turn in an amazing movie that has been overlooked. But the performance of the season, Emmanuelle Riva’s in “Amour,” wasn’t even nominated.
Lumenick:
Will win: Chastain. “Zero Dark Thirty” is pretty much a one-woman show and Chastain delivers a tour-de-force as a CIA agent determined to hunt down Osama bin Laden. Her main Oscar competition, Jennifer Lawrence, is conveniently shunted off into the separate best actress category for comedies and musicals.
Should win: Chastain. See above.
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THE CATEGORY: Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture — Drama
THE NOMINEES: Daniel Day-Lewis (“Lincoln”), Richard Gere (“Arbitrage”), John Hawkes (“The Sessions”), Joaquin Phoenix (“The Master”), Denzel Washington (“Flight”)
THE PREDICTIONS:
Smith:
Will win: He looks good in a stovepipe hat, he’s got whiskers and the voice is amazing. We might as well acknowledge Daniel Day-Lewis as the finest actor of his generation.
Should win: Well, if the competition is Richard Gere and Joaquin “I’m really being super-intense here, aren’t I?” Phoenix, I’ll have to go with DDL.
Lumenick:
Will win: Day-Lewis. His main obstacle at the Oscars is that no one else has even won three Best Actor Oscars. Not an issue at the Globes, where his sole win was for “There Will Be Blood.” The HFPA even nominated him for his worst performance, in “Nine.”
Should win: Day-Lewis. A performance for the ages in a flawed movie.
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THE CATEGORY: Best Motion Picture — Comedy or Musical
THE NOMINEES: “The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel,” “Les Miserables,” “Moonrise Kingdom,” “Salmon Fishing in the Yemen,” “Silver Linings Playbook”
THE PREDICTIONS:
Smith:
Will win: “Les Miserables.” Who can resist a good old rip-roaring musical?
Should win: Though I loved the stage show even more, I picked “Les Miz” as the number one film of the year because of its huge and engulfing story, as majestic as “Gone With the Wind,” not to mention half a dozen of the greatest showstoppers in the history of musical theater.
Lumenick:
Will win: “Les Miserables.” This schmaltzy, star-laden musical plays straight to the HFPA’s European orientation.
Should win: “Moonrise Kingdom.” By far the most accomplished piece of filmmaking in this motley collection of movies.
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THE CATEGORY: Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture — Comedy or Musical
THE NOMINEES: Emily Blunt (“Salmon Fishing in the Yemen”), Judi Dench (“The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel”), Jennifer Lawrence (“Silver Linings Playbook”), Maggie Smith (“Quartet”), Meryl Streep (“Hope Springs”)
THE PREDICTIONS:
Smith:
Will win: Looks like this Jennifer Lawrence’s year to rule the universe, but you can’t give her an award for playing bow-and-arrow girl in “The Hunger Games.”
Should win: I didn’t like the way Lawrence’s character gradually turned into a standard-issue romcom automaton, but in the early going she is terrific playing dark and twisted.
Lumenick:
Will win: Lawrence. “Silver Linings Playbook” wouldn’t really work without this year’s breakout star — even if the movie itself hasn’t really caught on with the public in a big way. And the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, which gerrymandered Lawrence out of Chastain’s way, always likes to help producer Harvey Weinstein.
Should win: Lawrence.
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THE CATEGORY: Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture — Comedy or Musical
THE NOMINEES: Jack Black (“Bernie”), Bradley Cooper (“Silver Linings Playbook”), Hugh Jackman (“Les Miserables”), Ewan McGregor (“Salmon Fishing in the Yemen”), Bill Murray (“Hyde Park on Hudson”)
THE PREDICTIONS:
Smith:
Will win: Hugh Jackman. Mister Showbiz gets back to his roots as a song-and-dance man, minus the dancing, and the old-school nature of the live singing is impressive.
Should win: I didn’t love most of these performances, especially Bill Murray’s completely misguided work as FDR, but how about a little love for Jack Black’s gentlemanly murderer in “Bernie”?
Lumenick:
Will win: Jackman. The HPFA previously nominated him for the mercifully forgotten comedy “Kate and Leopold” (2001). So they can hardly fail to honor him for exposing his tonsils to such relentless public scrutiny.
Should win: Murray. He’s delightful as President Franklin D. Roosevelt in a role that combines his usual verbal dexterity with some tricky physicality in portraying a disabled man.
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THE CATEGORY: Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
THE NOMINEES: Amy Adams (“The Master”), Sally Field (“Lincoln”), Anne Hathaway (“Les Miserables”), Helen Hunt (“The Sessions”), Nicole Kidman (“The Paperboy”)
THE PREDICTIONS:
Smith:
Will win: It’s hard to overlook as scene-stealing a performance as Anne Hathaway’s in “Les Miserables,” and the old-fashioned nature of the story won’t bother these older voters at all.
Should win: Anne Hathaway. It’s an amazingly weak field this year. None of the others even deserved to get nominated, but Hathaway’s “I Dreamed a Dream” is already the stuff of showbiz legend.
Lumenick:
Will win: Hathaway. She’s deservedly a prohibitive favorite at the Oscars for a brief but show-stopping musical performance. Even many people who hate this movie acknowledge this.
Should win: Hathaway.
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THE CATEGORY: Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
THE NOMINEES: Alan Arkin (“Argo”), Leonardo DiCaprio (“Django Unchained”), Philip Seymour Hoffman (“The Master”), Tommy Lee Jones (“Lincoln”), Christoph Waltz (“Django Unchained”)
THE PREDICTIONS:
Smith:
Will win: The biggest name here is Leo DiCaprio, and the Globes are suckers for star power, but his performance was so-so. Tommy Lee Jones has built up a lot of good will over the years, though, so I expect he will pull it out.
Should win: Philip Seymour Hoffman is the real anchor of “The Master,” giving a quietly seductive performance that makes his character’s cult chillingly plausible.
Lumenick:
Will win: DiCaprio. I’m guessing the HFPA will tip its hat to its old pal Weinstein by giving the prize to the actor for channeling Harvey Korman in his oddball hamming as a mandingo-loving plantation owner.
Should win: Jones. His cranky abolitionist helps keep “Lincoln” from being insufferably high-minded.
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THE CATEGORY: Best Director — Motion Picture
THE NOMINEES: Ben Affleck (“Argo”), Kathryn Bigelow (“Zero Dark Thirty”), Ang Lee (“Life of Pi”), Steven Spielberg (“Lincoln”), Quentin Tarantino (“Django Unchained”)
THE PREDICTIONS:
Smith:
Will win: Ben Affleck, Argo. The HFPA doesn’t have dark taste and won’t be able to resist honoring this good-humored, uplifting, suspenseful piece of entertainment.
Should win: Kathryn Bigelow’s intricate detective work in “Zero Dark Thirty” stays spellbinding for two and a half hours in a dense, unnerving and provocative work of near-history.
Lumenick:
Will win: Spielberg. He won the directing prize previously for “Schindler’s List” and “Saving Private Ryan.” Obviously the HFPA, which has showered him with nine other nods, as well as a lifetime achievement prize, loves his serious films.
Should win: Affleck. The year’s big comeback story pulled off quite a feat juggling the thriller and farcical elements of the hugely crowd-pleasing “Argo,” the shortest of the five nominees.
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THE CATEGORY: Best Television Series — Drama
THE NOMINEES: “Breaking Bad,” “Boardwalk Empire,” “Downton Abbey: Season 2,” “Homeland,” “The Newsroom”
THE PREDICTIONS:
Rorke:
Will win: “Homeland.” Before the show went off the rails, it was still the best thing around.
Should win: “Mad Men.” Best overall season of any of the nominees.
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THE CATEGORY: Best Performance by an Actress in a Television Series — Drama
THE NOMINEES: Connie Britton (“Nashville”), Glenn Close (“Damages”), Claire Danes (“Homeland”), Michelle Dockery (“Downton Abbey: Season 2”), Julianna Margulies (“The Good Wife”)
THE PREDICTIONS:
Rorke:
Will win: Claire Danes, “Homeland.” So crazy and so unpredictable. She took a risky part and made the most of it.
Should win: Connie Britton, “Nashville.” Sexy, soulful and melancholy, Britton also has the best hair on TV. And she sings too.
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THE CATEGORY: Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series — Drama
THE NOMINEES: Steve Buscemi (“Boardwalk Empire”), Bryan Cranston (“Breaking Bad”), Jeff Daniels (“The Newsroom”), Jon Hamm (“Mad Men”), Damian Lewis (“Homeland”)
THE PREDICTIONS:
Rorke:
Will win: Jeff Daniels, “The Newsroom.” The monologue in the pilot about everything’s that wrong with America will clinch this one.
Should win: Damian Lewis, “Homeland.” A riveting performer who should have won last year, but wasn’t even nominated.
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THE CATEGORY: Best Television Series — Comedy or Musical
THE NOMINEES: “The Big Bang Theory,” “Episodes,” “Girls,” “Modern Family,” “Smash”
THE PREDICTIONS:
Rorke:
Will win: “Modern Family.” The only choice in a weak category.
Should win: “Modern Family.”
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THE CATEGORY: Best Performance by an Actress in a Television Series — Comedy or Musical
THE NOMINEES: Zooey Deshanel (“New Girl”), Julia Louis-Dreyfus (“Veep”), Lena Dunham (“Girls”), Tina Fey (“30 Rock”), Amy Poehler (“Parks And Recreation”)
THE PREDICTIONS:
Rorke:
Will win: Lena Dunham, “Girls.” The avalanche of press, praise and $$$ received by the “Girls” dynamo is something the HFPA won’t ignore.
Should win: Amy Poehler, “Parks & Recreation.” Maybe they throw her a bone because she’s hosting the damn thing, but Amy’s always a bridesmaid.
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THE CATEGORY: Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series — Comedy or Musical
THE NOMINEES:
Alec Baldwin (“30 Rock”), Don Cheadle (“House Of Lies”), Louis C.K (“Louie”), Matt LeBlanc (“Episodes”), Jim Parsons (“The Big Bang Theory”)
THE PREDICTIONS:
Rorke:
Will win: Alec Baldwin, “30 Rock.” It will be a nice send-off for the show’s last season.
Should win: Louie C.K., “Louie.” Obviously, the most creative person on this list. But the Hollywood Foreign Press puts glamour and fame before talent.
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THE CATEGORY: Best Mini-series or Motion Picture Made for Television
THE NOMINEES: “Game Change,” “The Girl,” “Hatfields & McCoys,” “The Hour,” “Political Animals”
THE PREDICTIONS:
Rorke:
Will win: “Game Change.” A cogent and surprisingly sympathetic film of how Sarah Palin did not let the GOP bosses boss her around.
Should win: “Game Change.”
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THE CATEGORY: Best Performance by an Actress in a Mini-series or Motion Picture Made for Television
THE NOMINEES: Nicole Kidman (“Hemingway & Gellhorn”), Jessica Lange (“American Horror Story: Asylum”), Sienna Miller (“The Girl”), Julianne Moore (“Game Change”), Sigourney Weaver (“Political Animals”)
THE PREDICTIONS:
Rorke:
Will win: Julianne Moore, “Game Change.” A career-defining performance by Moore of a woman we’d rather forget.
Should win: Julianne Moore.
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THE CATEGORY: Best Performance by an Actor in a Mini-series or Motion Picture Made for Television
THE NOMINEES: Kevin Costner (“Hatfields & McCoys”), Benedict Cumberbatch (“Sherlock” [Masterpiece]), Woody Harrelson (“Game Change”), Toby Jones (“The Girl”), Clive Owen (“Hemingway & Gellhorn”)
THE PREDICTIONS:
Rorke:
Will win: Woody Harrelson, “Game Change.” Overlooked by Emmys, Harrelson’s performance was one of his best.
Should win: Benedict Cumberbatch, “Sherlock.” The underdog in the battle of the TV Sherlocks, Cumberbatch is preferred by lovers of the books over Jonny Lee Miller of “Elementary.”
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THE CATEGORY: Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Series, Mini-series, or Motion Picture Made for Television
THE NOMINEES: Hayden Panettiere (“Nashville”), Archie Panjabi (“The Good Wife”), Sarah Paulson (“Game Change”), Maggie Smith (“Downton Abbey: Season 2”), Sofia Vergara (“Modern Family”)
THE PREDICTIONS:
Rorke:
Will win: Maggie Smith, “Downton Abbey.” The funniest person on television right now. With noms this year, Smith will win for this “Downton.”
Should win: Hayden Panettiere, “Nashville.” Created a three-dimensional character out of bratty country star Juliette Barnes. This season’s big surprise.
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THE CATEGORY: Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Series, Mini-series, or Motion Picture Made for Television
THE NOMINEES: Max Greenfield (“New Girl”), Ed Harris (“Game Change”), Danny Huston (“Magic City”), Mandy Patinkin (“Homeland”), Eric Stonestreet (“Modern Family”)
THE PREDICTIONS:
Rorke:
Will win: Eric Stonestreet, “Modern Family.” Stonestreet is a showy scene stealer who never fails to get a laugh.
Should win: Mandy Patinkin, “Homeland.” Few people would ever call Patinkin subtle, but he has beautifully underplayed this role.