(
)
Ray Lewis ran onto the field as the deep back in Victory formation last Sunday, then did his last dance in full view of all the fans in Baltimore he had thrilled for 17 seasons.
Say what you want about Lewis hogging the spotlight after what had been a solid team win for the Ravens over the Colts. He surely deserved those last few seconds of adulation. But in terms of what happens next, it makes you wonder if that was the final bow for Lewis and these 2012 Ravens.
Their degree of difficulty climbs dramatically when they take on the Broncos in Denver tomorrow. Instead of facing rookie phenom Andrew Luck on friendly ground, they have to cross the country to take on legend Peyton Manning, who:
* Threw for 4,659 yards and 37 touchdowns in his first year as a Bronco.
* Directed a 34-17 whipping of the Ravens in Baltimore on Dec. 16, a game that was 31-3 after three quarters.
* Is 9-2 in his career against the Ravens, including 2-0 in the playoffs.
Yes, there are a few reasons to consider taking the Ravens with this hefty spread well north of a touchdown. Lewis did not play in that first meeting, and his return gave a clear boost to a Ravens’ defense that gave up 350 yards per game this season. Joe Flacco may look like an Average Joe most of the time, but he is the first quarterback in the Super Bowl era to win a playoff game in each of his first five seasons. In Ray Rice, they have a reliable runner who has had great moments in the postseason.
Still, they don’t seem equipped to match scores with Manning, and if the Ravens get behind, Flacco will have to deal with sackmen Von Miller (18.5) and Elvis Dumervil.
The picks: Broncos -9 1/2 and Under 46
Broncos, 30-13
49ERS (-3) over Packers;
Under 45: It has been a strange season for the 49ers, who have had some eye-popping wins (Opening day in Green Bay; Dec. 16 in New England; a back-to-back 71-6 dismantling of the Jets and Bills; a 25-point rout of the Bears) but also some head-scratching performances (26-3 loss to the Giants; 0-1-1 record vs. the Rams; 42-13 loss at Seattle with a chance to clinch).
Moreover, the heat’s on coach Jim Harbaugh, who Wally Pipp-ed Alex Smith in favor of the hand-picked Colin Kaepernick.
Smith last year had the 49ers in overtime of the NFC Championship Game. They have some huge obstacles to even get back to that point, let alone get to and win a Super Bowl. Clearly this is a gamble that can backfire big time on Harbaugh.
Many are wowed by the fact the Packers come in having won nine of their last 11 with a former Super Bowl winning quarterback who threw 39 touchdown passes and a defense that has gotten its stars healthy. But the Packers had some bad moments, too (the sackfest in the first half of the Fail Mary game in Seattle and the 38-10 loss at the Giants), and the run defense isn’t so hot (as Adrian Peterson showed).
The expectation here is the 49ers defense (with 19.5 sackman Aldon Smith, Patrick Willis and Dashon Goldson) will dictate the tempo and they will survive in a tough, ugly game.
49ers, 20-16
SUNDAY
FALCONS (-2 1/2) over Seahawks; Over 46: Seems like the whole world has jumped on the Seattle bandwagon, citing Russell Wilson’s amazing play, the notion the Seahawks have the cornerbacks to shut down the Falcons wideouts, and the fact Atlanta hasn’t won a playoff game in the Mike Smith/Matt Ryan regime.
Yes, Seattle has outscored its opponents 217-74 on its current six-game winning streak, but also remember the Seahawks were down 14-0 last week before Robert Griffin III re-injured his right knee; they are taking their third cross-country flight in a week, and Ryan is 33-6 lifetime at home including playoffs.
It’s easy to fall in love with the Seahawks story and players, but if you have forgotten how good the Falcons are, just ask the Giants.
Falcons 31-21
PATRIOTS (-9 1/2) over Texans; Over 47 1/2: Said here last week the Texans look like a team that peaked too early and their lackluster first-round win over the Bengals didn’t change that opinion.
They will do better than the 42-14 massacre the Patriots put on them on Dec. 10 in Foxborough without Rob Gronkowski, a game the Texans entered with an 11-1 record, but not enough to warrant a pick against Tom Brady and Bill Belichick here.
Patriots 34-17
LAST WEEK: 1-3 game selections, 2-2 Over/Under
LOCK OF THE WEEK: Patriots (Locks 7-11 in 2012).