Last week in Buffalo, the Dolphins were shut out 19-0, rushed 12 times for 14 yards, and completed 12 of 33 with two picks and seven sacks. And the defense gave up more than 200 yards rushing. The home crowd will get ornery if it looks as if the Dolphins are headed for a no-playoffs choke. Jets figured out how to play a turnover-free and sack-free game against the Browns. In 2012, Jets got killed in Buffalo in the finale with Rex Ryan’s job on the line. They will do him better this time.
The pick: Jets +6.
GIANTS (-3¹/₂) over Redskins: Redskins have lost seven in a row but the last two were by a point at Atlanta and versus Dallas. So it does appear they haven’t quit on Mike Shanahan and have a better functioning offense with Kirk Cousins at quarterback. Giants are 3-4 at home (2-5 against the spread) and, after being shut out two weeks ago against Seattle, will be motivated to close out on a good note in front of their fans.
Panthers (-6¹/₂) over FALCONS: Panthers can clinch NFC South with a win or tie, and have given up the fewest points in the league (221, one fewer than Seattle). Have to wonder if the Falcons put whatever they had left into the upset bid in San Francisco on Monday night. That was a long trip to add to the short week. With vacation beckoning, that has to be a consideration.
TITANS (-7) over Texans: Titans have lost last five at home, but four of those victors (Colts, Chiefs, 49ers and Cardinals) will finish with double-digit wins. This is also a revenge game, as the Texans won 30-24 in OT in Week 2, and have lost 13 straight games since.
STEELERS (-7) over Browns: Steelers could see their wild-card hopes disappear on the scoreboard, but playoffs haven’t been their motivation since an 0-4 start left them for dead. They have won seven (and covered eight) of last 11, while Browns have lost nine of 10.
Ravens (+6) over BENGALS: Cincinnati has clinched AFC North and will have to wait for later Patriots result to move into bye slot if the Bills win. Not a great chance of that, so Bengals figure to rest anyone important who’s ailing. If any team can bounce back from horrendous 41-7 loss to Patriots, it’s the Ravens. Plus, nine of their last 12 games have been decided by three points or fewer.
Jaguars (+11¹/₂) over COLTS: Indianapolis has beaten the Seahawks, Broncos, Chiefs and 49ers, but also lost (by 30) to the Rams. Colts need losses by Patriots and Bengals to move into bye spot. That’s unlikely, so don’t expect them to care 11 ¹/₂ points worth. Jags have won last three on road and last two in Indy.
VIKINGS (-3) over Lions: Vikings have been out of the race for a while but have been a fabulous bet, covering six of eight and beating the Bears and Eagles outright. We may have a new dictionary definition of “mailing it in” if Webster’s watches the Lions play this week.
BEARS (+3) over Packers : Aaron Rodgers is expected back, but boy will he be rusty! And Eddie Lacy will have to play hurt while Clay Matthews is out. Hard to trust Bears, who gave up 54 in Philly last week and are No. 2 in points allowed in the NFL (445, three fewer than Washington). But going with the healthier home team in this winner-take-all battle for NFC North.
PATRIOTS (-9¹/₂) over Bills: Patriots clinch bye with win, and have a recent history of romping at home in Week 17 with the division already clinched. They beat the Dolphins 28-0 last year, Bills 49-21 in 2011 and Dolphins 38-7 in 2010.
SAINTS (-12¹/₂) over Buccaneers: Props to Greg Schiano and Mike Glennon for a strong second half of the season, but the Superdome is the wrong place to be at the wrong time. Saints probably will need the game to make the wild card. They are 7-0 at home, five of the wins by 18 points or more.
RAIDERS (+12¹/₂) over Broncos: Broncos lone remaining goal is top seed, which would send the Patriots to Denver if both make the AFC title game. Like Colts above, not sure if that’s 12¹/₂ points worth of motivation against a hated rival who will be trying to tear Peyton Manning’s head off.
CARDINALS (pick) over 49ers: 49ers had their playoff clinching party on Monday night, and will be watching the Seahawks on the scoreboard. If Seattle wins, 49ers are locked in as a wild card. Cards’ hopes would be extinguished with a Saints victory, but be sure Bruce Arians covets that 11-5 record, even if there’s no playoffs.
CHARGERS (-9¹/₂) over Chiefs: Line exploded because Chiefs are guaranteed No. 5 seed and Chargers are still trying to find a way in. But if Dolphins or Ravens win, Chargers will be eliminated before kickoff. Andy Reid’s history in Philly, though, was to rest his starters in this situation.
SEAHAWKS (-10¹/₂) over Rams: Losing to the Cards at home last week was a good reality check for the Seahawks. Rams have had some notable wins (Colts, Bears, Saints), but will be hard-pressed to hang in here, particularly against the Seattle pass rush with LT Jake Long out.
Eagles (-6¹/₂) over COWBOYS: Line soared on Tony Romo injury news, but not enough to alter an Eagle pick. MLB Sean Lee, the QB of the Dallas defense, is out, and this is a unit that didn’t stop the Bears all game or the Packers in the second half (not counting kneeldowns). Eagles have won six of seven since Nick Foles took over.
BEST BETS: Steelers, Vikings, Cardinals
LOCK OF THE WEEK: Steelers (Locks 6-9-1)
LAST WEEK: 10-6 overall, 1-2 Best Bets