It is #HarveyDay, as they say on Twitter. Matt Harvey makes his 12th start of the season this afternoon against the Marlins in Miami, making it a rare case this season of the baseball world turning its eye to South Florida. How can we best explain what we’ve seen so far from the Mets’ new ace? Here’s a look beyond the Harvey numbers (5-0, 1.85 ERA, 84 strikeouts and 17 walks in 78 innings), which you already know — both to appreciate what he has done so far and anticipate what he might do:
1
The number of starting pitchers who can boast of a top-10 fastball and top-10 slider this season. According to FanGraphs’
pitch values, Harvey’s fastball ranks fifth (Philadelphia’s Cliff Lee has the best heater) and his slider ninth (Texas’ Yu Darvish is first).
.172
Opponents’ batting average, best for a pitcher in the major leagues.
1.13
ERA in starts when the Mets have scored between zero and two runs. Harvey pitches at his best when his run support is the worst.
.190
Lefty batters’ on-base percentage against the righty-throwing Harvey. No pitcher in baseball has kept opposite-hand hitters off base as successfully.
.071
Opponents’ batting average with two outs and runners in scoring position. They have just one hit in 14 at-bats, plus three walks.
82.5
Harvey’s strand rate percentage (the number of runners that reach base against him then don’t score). Harvey is tied with the Yankees’ Hiroki Kuroda for the 11th-best strand rate in the major leagues. As a point of comparison, the Mets’ R.A. Dickey recorded an 80-percent strand rate last year en route to winning the NL Cy Young Award.
54.8
The percent of pitches Harvey has thrown in the upper third of the strike zone. The average rate is 36.09 percent. Harvey is unafraid to challenge hitters where they can do the most damage.
24.4
Harvey’s whiff percentage (the rate of pitches at which opposing batters swing and miss). This is third-best in the major leagues.
5.7%
Harvey’s home run-per-flyball rate, the 13th-best in baseball. This partly is a product of Harvey working his home games at pitcher-friendly Citi Field and partly a tribute to his excellence. But it also likely reflects some luck. The normal homer-per-flyball rate is between 9 and 10 percent, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see some regression.
19.4
The percent rate of line drives Harvey has allowed, to go with his .228 opponents’ batting average on balls in play. This means Harvey probably has benefited from some good luck. A line-drive rate in this neighborhood usually produces a BABIP somewhere in the .300 range.