A long, long year ago, in a football season far, far from the norm, the Fantasy Tracker crashed-landed in unexplored territory.
The 2012 season was the Tracker’s worst in memory — struggling to a win percentage dangerously close to the .500 mark, playoff appearances by just 33 of 71 teams and a mere eight league titles (all in formats that included Week 17, which makes it sort of like winning a Triple-A championship).
The Tracker returns this season, bent on redemption, back to paint a picture of triumph and erase the ugly memory of a season gone awry.
Our saga begins with this season’s draft preview, where we will employ an age-old strategy, and align ourselves with last year’s enemy.
RUSH HOUR
RETURNS
The evolution of fantasy football has led early picks out of the trenches and into aerial combat, with quarterbacks and receivers populating more and more spots in the first few rounds. This year’s draft, however, will be a blast from the past. Like the old times, the best strategy is to grab running backs early — ideally with your top two picks.
It’s not because NFL offenses are trending back toward a run-first mentality, in fact quite the opposite. Instead, because more and more teams are throwing more and more often, RB options are becoming more and more scarce, making it more important to lock them down.
You want to get them early, not because they have a bigger upside, but because the middle- to late-round options suffer a steeper decline than other positions. Don’t be shy about going RB-RB with your first two picks.
TOP OF THE CLASS
There is no debate this season. No waffling about who to pick with the top choice. There is one crystal clear option — the same guy who thoroughly scorched the Tracker last season.
Adrian Peterson, who the Tracker trumpeted as a “bust” heading into the 2012 draft, instead turned in his most successful campaign to date, in a season that began just eighth months removed from a devastating knee injury. Few, if any, RBs ever had rebounded from such an injury the next season, and none with anything close to the success of Peterson.
As amazing as AP is, we do not expect him to have such an incredible season again this year, but even a small dropoff still would leave him miles ahead of the next best RB.
We offer AP apologies for last season, and feel confident he will treat our projection more kindly this year.
THROWN OFF
QBs score the most fantasy points by far, but that doesn’t mean you overspend to get them.
Drew Brees was the highest scoring QB last season (27 per game, depending on your scoring system) and Peterson the highest RB
(21 per game). In the vast majority of leagues, you have one starting QB and two RBs (and maybe a flex).
By comparison, in 2012 Peyton Manning was drafted around No. 50 overall and averaged 23 points per game. RB Ahmad Bradshaw normally was picked in close proximity to Manning, and he averaged nine points per game. So if you drafted Brees in the first and Bradshaw in the fifth, you scored eight points fewer than the guy who took Peterson early and Peyton later. That type of discrepancy will be even more pronounced this year.
GO DEEP
As instrumental as WRs have become in the NFL, they are too many good ones to justify using a high draft pick. As much as we love Calvin Johnson, we are fine with settling for Julio Jones, Larry Fitzgerald, Victor Cruz, Steve Smith or Dwayne Bowe in Rounds 3-5 and focus on RBs first.
TIGHT FIT
With Rob Gronkowski’s health concerns, Jimmy Graham is the last remaining slam-dunk, stud tight end. But don’t sweat it when someone scoops him up in the third round. There are plenty of bargains late in the draft to address this position.
Next week, in Episode II: Carson Palmer heads from Oakland to Arizona. Can he get the Cardinals offense off the ground and allow WR Larry Fitzgerald to again become a fantasy star?
dloftis@nypost.com