Obama: Cancelled joint exercise against America’s enemies. (
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Of all the options he had in front of him yesterday to signal his dissatisfaction with the Egyptian military over Wednesday’s massacre, President Obama picked the worst one.
Sure, canceling Bright Star, the biannual joint military exercise, was right there at the top of list, and seemed an easy call — a nice symbolic gesture that shows we care about the bloodshed even as we maintain ties with all sides.
Canceling the exercise is aimed directly at the guilty party (the army); the harm isn’t immediate or specifically damaging to Egypt’s interim leader, Gen. Abdul-Fattah el-Sisi.; And it doesn’t quite severe ties to the army, the way completely cutting America’s $1.3 billion aid to the army would’ve.
But there is much harm in Obama’s move — to America’s interests.
Bright Star started in 1995; at its heyday in the mid 2000s, it involved multiple nations’ armies in exercises designed to help Egypt and its neighbors fight against mutual enemies.
And this year it was to take place in the chaotic Sinai Peninsula, where el-Sisi’s forces are quickly losing control to Islamist fighters of all shades.
Consider: The Muslim Brotherhood’s tactic since el-Sisilast monthpushed aside President Mohamed Morsi has been to disrupt the army’s ability to govern.
After failing to revive Egypt’s moribund economy while in power, the Brotherhood has tried in recent weeks to bring the country’s business life (especially in Cairo) to a halt — to show the Egyptian people that the army isn’t much better at running things.
Similarly, during his year as president Morsi tried to control the Sinai chaos. But now, as it no longer bears any responsibility, the Brotherhood is encouraging the area’s Bedouins to hook up with al Qaeda and other militant groups that are taking control of ever-more Sinai real estate from the military.
And this is a very dangerous game. The Jihadi groups and their Bedouin allies are no longer satisfied with the occasional raid on an army base, attacks on Western tourists or with controlling the lucrative Gaza-smuggling business. Directly encouraged by Cairo factions of the Brotherhood, they’re now out to open a new front in the fight over who’d control Egypt: the long border with Israel.
This week, an Israeli Iron Dome anti-missile unit intercepted a rocket headed for Eilat, the bustling tourist city at Israel’s southern tip. A few days before, the Eilat airport was briefly shut after specific intelligence warned of imminent attack.
Plus, several al Qaeda bigwigs were killed in the Sinai just south of Gaza last week — and various reports claimed an Israeli drone was the killer. If so, this would be the first time in decades that the Israel Defense Force has acted inside Egypt’s territory (in violation of the 1978 peace agreement).
Cairo Islamists immediately accused the Egyptian army of collaborating with the universally-hated Israelis. But Jerusalem was mum — not confirming or denying its involvement — leaving Cairo officials enough deniability to smooth things over.
Problem is, if the Sinai Jihadists manage to drag Israel into more, increasingly serious fighting, their prestige — at least temporarily — will soar. (Remember? Hezbollah’s popularity across the Arab world was at its peak in the wake of a dubious “victory” over Israel in 2006.)
If that ploy succeeds, it could hand the Arab world’s most populous country to the most unsavory Brotherhood factions. And leave them owing their victory to al Qaeda — a movement that was partly founded by Brot
herhood alums, including current leader Ayman al-Zawahiri.
America, in other words, has all the incentive in the world to be an active participant in the Egyptian army’s war on the Sinai jihadists. It’s a big reason why the Pentagon scheduled this year’s Bright Star in that volatile arena.
By canceling the joint exercise, as a symbolic part of Obama’s ever-shifting Egypt maneuvering, Washington may have signaled something to the army leadership. But it also directly harmed American interests.
Twitter: @bennyavni