PROVIDENCE, R.I. — There’s no need to rewind the 86-76 win by St. John’s at third-place Providence on Tuesday night.
The Red Storm continued doing everything they’ve been doing well during this stretch in which they have won five of their past six games. Rysheed Jordan was running the point like a confident upperclassman and Chris Obekpa’s interior defense was sparking the transition offense, while D’Angelo Harrison was a stabilizing force and JaKarr Sampson was an intimidating force.
So, instead of rewinding, let’s fast-forward and look ahead at the rest of the Red Storm’s schedule. Though they’re playing well enough to beat almost any team in the country right now, St. John’s (14-9, 4-6) has little breathing room after an 0-5 start to Big East play.
Just 1-6 against top-50 opponents, St. John’s would need an incredible finish to be considered for an at-large berth in the NCAA Tournament, but the chances have improved from almost impossible to improbable.
With eight regular-season games left, St. John’s likely would have to go 7-1 down the stretch to have a solid chance at a bid, while 6-2 could put them in the conversation if one of the wins comes against Creighton or Villanova.
Here’s the rest of the schedule:
Feb. 9, vs. Creighton: With the Johnnies playing as well as they have all season, this is their best chance at a marquee win. Their speed and length match up well with Creighton, and if they turn it into a fast-paced, full-court game as they did at the end of the heartbreaking loss in Omaha, the Storm will have the advantage.
Feb. 13, at Seton Hall: A tougher game than it seems, considering the Pirates are a half-game ahead of the Johnnies right now. In a 77-76 win over Seton Hall on Jan. 23, the Red Storm were outscored 28-12 over the final 8:06.
Feb. 16, vs. Georgetown: This game must have been circled for weeks now, after St. John’s was thoroughly embarrassed in Washington. But the Hoyas, like the Johnnies, look to be improving as the season goes along.
Feb. 18, vs. Butler: After an 0-5 start, trap games can’t exist.
Feb. 22, at Villanova: Though St. John’s showed it has the talent to match up with the Wildcats, a road win at the conference’s best team is expecting a lot. This is the only game the Red Storm really can afford to lose, though a win would do wonders for their résumé if they take care of business beforehand.
Feb. 25, vs. Xavier: If they continue their hot stretch to this point, the weight of must-win games will likely catch up to them. Taking out the Musketeers – likely a tournament team – after five pressure-filled games is doable, but difficult.
March 2, vs. DePaul: If they lose this, they don’t deserve to make the tournament.
March 8, at Marquette: It’s hard to imagine it all coming down to this game. That would mean a 12-1 or 11-2 finish to the season. But if St. John’s gets this far, it would be another tall task to claim a road win against a physical group that may be in a similar must-win scenario.
As for the rest of the teams in the Big East, it’s unclear how much respect the selection committee will give to the reconfigured conference.
Marquette coach Buzz Williams said as much on Saturday following a loss to St. John’s. He said he thought 11 conference wins should be enough to secure an at-large berth, but he quickly added that an 11-win team probably would need at least one win in the Big East Tournament, too.
Will the committee see the shell of a former superpower — missing Syracuse, Louisville, UConn, Cincinnati and Notre Dame — or will they recognize the basketball-centric conference with the nation’s fourth-highest RPI?
“We don’t have the data on what it takes in the new Big East to be an at-large team,” Williams said. “I’d say by the end of February, we’ll have a chance to be the third-best league. Look at the supposed bottom teams in our league and look at their records in league play. Then look at the records of the bottom teams in the three leagues ahead of us. It’s dramatically different.
“The parity in the league continues to shrink. How is it going to play out when we come to Selection Sunday? We don’t know yet.”
Here’s how it looks today:
Locks: Villanova (20-2, 8-1) and Creighton (18-3, 8-1)
Inside Track: Xavier (15-7, 5-4 – wins over Cincinnati and Tennessee), Providence (16-7, 6-4 – wins over Creighton and Xavier)
Work to Do: Marquette (13-10, 5-5 – win over Providence), Seton Hall (13-9, 4-5 – wins at Providence and at Xavier), Georgetown (13-9, 4-6 – wins over Michigan State, Kansas State and VCU)
No Chance in Hell: Brad Stevens-less Butler (12-10, 2-8), DePaul (10-13, 2-8)