Joel Sherman

Joel Sherman

MLB

Rivera’s dominance diminishing as end nears

We had assumed that even if this were the worst of times for the Yankees, there would still be Mariano Rivera to celebrate.

A few weeks ago it appeared September would be devoid of contention and that Yankee fans would have to settle for one last go-around with Mo, one final opportunity to watch and honor him while he is still playing. Will this be his last game? Last save? Last pitch?

That still might be the case if the suddenly shaky pitching — particularly the injury-touched set-up bridge to Rivera — does not perform better. But with the Yankee offense surging and the Rays stumbling, Rivera, for now, is in a familiar September place — making a run for the playoffs … and more. Same as ever, even at 43.

However, unless you are watching exclusively with your heart, this is not the same as ever. Rivera still is superb, still an upper-echelon closer, still the guy the Yankees want holding the ball with a game or season on the line. But as one of his own teammates put it, “He has come down from super human to just better than most humans.”

Another September of contending means Rivera can add to his legacy as not just the best closer ever, but the best big-game closer ever. And who would bet against his skill, heart and history? As Alex Rodriguez said, “I worry about the other players. For me, Mariano is perfect on and off the field. He is the greatest competitor ever. He is just a lion.”

But we do have to consider that this great career might not have the storybook conclusion, that his four second-half blown saves (second-most in the majors) are a troubling symbol. For nearly two decades, Rivera has been the weapon other teams could not match, that helps separate the Yanks from the competition — especially in the crucible games.

However, what if he is a reason the Yanks falter down the stretch, fail to finish this strong run with the playoffs? That just feels wrong. Even people who are not Yankees fans — hate the pinstripes — respect and admire Rivera. Just look at the universal love he has received this year behind enemy lines.

I generally am dispassionate about such stuff, having learned not to care about what I can’t control and about people that don’t care if I have success. But I have to admit even I feel the tug with Rivera. He is the player I have enjoyed covering most. Not because of any particular bonding — though he always has been kind and considerate and uber-professional in our dealings. It is about how much I have loved watching the unique blend of power and ballet and efficiency, the way his genius only grew more awe-inspiring with the magnitude of the games.

He is, of course, going to be remembered for that genius in his retirement. Still, it would be painful to watch the greatest closer ever close poorly, if the best postseason pitcher ever contributed to costing the Yanks the postseason. It wouldn’t be Willie Mays stumbling around the Mets outfield in 1973. Again, Rivera is still a high-end closer.

But scouts have been pretty consistent this year that his stuff has come down at least a grade, that the bite on his cutter and two-seamer is not as consistent and dominant, that he is closing games as much as ever with savvy and serenity, mystique and aura — as with stuff.

Some of the infallibility has vanished. It goes beyond the six blown saves (his most in 10 years) and blowing three straight for the first time in his career. It is that Rivera is great at closing — better in the postseason than the regular season, great when he smells the finish line in a game.

But consider that twice in the last month he has blown a save with one out to go and no runners on base. He had done that just six other times in his career — never twice in the same season, much less the same month. Consider, he did not do it once — not once — in the five seasons from 2002-06.

Three times in the last month Rivera was within one strike of a save and didn’t get it. He had only 10 other games in which that happened and, before the last month, he had done it in just three games since May 29, 2003.

Two times in the last month he had the potential final out in a save down 0-2 in the count and wound up blowing the save. He had done that only five times in his career, just twice since, Aug. 27, 2001.

“You can tell me the numbers, but everyone in this clubhouse has zero doubt when he is on the mound,” Chris Stewart said. “It is not just stuff. It is the mentality. He is unfazed by everything. We trust him. When he enters the game we expect to win. Period.”

And maybe his final month will keep honoring that. There have been a lot of moments along the way — as he has gotten older and older — that we mulled if the finish line would get Rivera before Rivera determined the finish line. For example, before this year the last time he blew four second-half saves was 2003.

However, after his final blown save on Aug. 16 that year, Rivera went 20-for-20 in saves (including five in the postseason), allowed two runs in 34 innings and authored perhaps his career highlight: three shutout innings in ALCS Game 7 to earn the clinching win against the Red Sox.

Again, you don’t bet against his skill, his heart, his history. But if you care about Rivera closing in a way befitting his career, you watch, wonder and worry.