Two of the best matchups in college football this season overlap Thursday night, as No. 3 Oregon and No. 5 Stanford kick off right around the time No. 6 Baylor and No. 10 Oklahoma begin their second half.
Two battles with national title implications are all about battles with perception.
The only thing more overwhelming than the top-ranked offenses of Baylor (63.9 points) and Oregon (55.6) is the belief there is no possible way to slow them down.
But there have been offenses like this before. Seriously, it’s true.
The 1944 Army team, the all-time leader with 56 points per game, failed to crack 30 on two occasions. Two historic Heisman-led offenses stumbled. Andre Ware’s 1989 Houston Cougars run-and-shoot juggernaut, which averaged 53 points and included one 95-point performance, put up a seven-point dud one week, while Sam Bradford’s 2008 Oklahoma team, which averaged 54 points per game, was held to 14 against Florida in the title game.
Heck, late last season, Oregon was averaging 54.8 points per game and then was held to 14 points — against Stanford.
It is inevitable. Offenses aren’t constants. There will be weeks when the timing just isn’t right, when the accuracy is just a little off, when the physicality of the opponent is just enough to throw it all into an unrecognizable mess. And it comes when the competition gets tougher.
The offenses won’t be stopped, but Oregon and Baylor will be slowed against the best defenses — two Top-20 defenses — they’ve seen all season. The Ducks will struggle with Stanford’s power on both fronts, while Baylor will realize putting up 700 yards of offense isn’t so easy against a team with a winning record.
Take the Sooners (+14 ½) and the Cardinal (+10 ½).
Florida St. (-35) over WAKE FOREST — The Seminoles are slaughtering the best teams in their path. The cupcakes are no problem.
TENNESSEE (+7 ½) over Auburn — The Vols have dropped back-to-back games against Top-10 teams, erasing the memory of how well they’ve played at home this season. In their past two games in Knoxville, they’ve beaten South Carolina and taken Georgia to overtime.
TEXAS TECH (-3) over Kansas St. — One bad game and everyone’s jumping off the Red Raiders bandwagon? Stick around … for now.
TEXAS A&M (-19½) over Mississippi St. — Johnny Football will put on a show in what may be his final home game with the Aggies.
Nebraska (+7) over MICHIGAN — I’d count on an ant successfully climbing Everest before I’d trust Devin Gardner to play a mistake-free game.
MARYLAND (-6) over Syracuse — The Orange are patterning their Saturdays after the Jets’ Sundays, alternating good weeks with miserable ones.
WISCONSIN (-7½) over Byu — A close loss at undefeated Ohio State and a controversial loss at Arizona State is all that separates the Badgers from perfection. Their run game is as good as ever, averaging 287 yards per game.
UCF (-10½) over Houston — In a battle between the only two undefeated teams in AAC history, Houston will be revealed as frauds with its suspect defense and soft schedule, while the Knights will prove to be even better than their No. 21 ranking suggests.
Virginia Tech (+6½) over MIAMI — The Hokies’ offense is terrible, but their eighth-ranked defense is legit. With Hurricanes running back Duke Johnson done for the season and Stephen Morris having thrown eight interceptions in the past four games, a straight-up upset wouldn’t be all that surprising.
West Virginia (+6½) over Texas — Something about Morgantown turns this mediocre group into believing it is something more.
PITTSBURGH (+4½) over Notre Dame —The Irish defense may be too banged up to extend the team’s four-game winning streak.
ALABAMA (-12) over Lsu — Zach Mettenberger’s stock is sliding after five interceptions in the past two games, including two against Furman. It won’t get any easier against an Alabama defense allowing just over five points per game, in games not against Texas A&M. Mettenberger is no Manziel.
Ucla (-1) over ARIZONA — It’ll be a back-and-forth shootout, but the Bruins win the games they’re supposed to and lose the games that matter more.
BEST BETS: Texas Tech, Wisconsin, Virginia Tech
Record: 44-58-3; Best Bets: 6-15