In an age of upsets, the No. 1 seeds survived and advanced and made it to Super Bowl XLVIII.
The Broncos got here riding Peyton Manning’s diminished but still formidable right arm, amassing an NFL-record 606 points and boasting the league’s top-rated offense. The Seahawks arrive with a second-year quarterback in the irrepressible Russell Wilson but mainly make their living on defense, allowing a league-low 231 points, fortified especially on the back end with their Legion of Boom secondary.
Who would have thought the first New York/New Jersey Super Bowl would bring together the Pacific Northwest and the Rockies, as teams from the Pacific and Mountain time zones get set to do battle at MetLife Stadium? It’s a compelling confrontation from top to bottom.
The matchups:
Broncos pass offense vs. Seattle pass defense
This is one of the great confrontations in Super Bowl history. The Legion of Boom secondary isn’t just hype, just as towering cornerback Richard Sherman isn’t all talk. This is the best group of cover men in the league. The NFL’s top-rated pass defense is teeming with talent in safeties Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor. Even lesser-known cornerbacks Byron Maxwell, Walter Thurmond and Jeremy Lane can play. If they can stick with their man coverage on Peyton Manning’s many weapons it’s a huge edge for Seattle.
Manning, however, might be the best ever at finding and exploiting the smallest crack in coverage, and he has targets galore in Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, Wes Welker and tight end Julius Thomas. All four had double-digit touchdowns in the regular season. Sherman almost always lines up on the offense’s right side and almost never shadows one receiver. Seeing whether Manning will challenge or avoid Sherman will make for fascinating viewing.
Edge: Broncos
Broncos run offense vs. Seattle run defense
The key to Denver’s staggering offensive production was not only Manning’s passing exploits but the fact Knowshon Moreno was able to balance out the offense by giving the Broncos a consistent ground attack. Moreno (1,038 rushing yards in the regular season) also is a deadly pass-catcher and not just as a safety valve for Manning. Rookie Montee Ball averaged 4.7 yards per carry.
The Seahawks chewed up and spit out Frank Gore in the NFC title game and, other than a midseason lapse, are not easy to run against. Underrated MLB Bobby Wagner has a nose for the ball and the smarts to know where the ball is going. Return to health of outside linebacker K.J. Wright is also a big key. So is Chancellor, a linebacker-sized safety who will step up in the box and make a hit.
Edge: Seahawks
Seahawks pass offense vs. Broncos Pass defense
The numbers indicate Russell Wilson (five TDs, four turnovers in his last six games) is slumping and though he has hasn’t been prolific, he has been efficient and rarely makes a glaring mistake. When Wilson escapes the pocket, he does so with his eyes scanning the field, looking to make a play with his arm rather than his legs. His receivers — Doug Baldwin, Golden Tate, Jermaine Kearse — are not big guys but they play with huge chips on their shoulders, believing they are under-appreciated. The wild card here is Percy Harvin, who is by far the most explosive of the bunch but barely has played after an injury-filled season. Tight ends Zach Miller and Luke Willson can get open.
The loss of valuable cornerback Chris Harris greatly weakens the Denver defensive backfield and could expose resurgent Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and 35-year old Champ Bailey, a once-great cover corner who now gets by on smarts to make up for his decreased physical skills. Bailey didn’t have an interception this season. Defensive end Shaun Phillips had 10 sacks but loss of edge-rusher Von Miller hurts in the pressure department. The Seahawks are primarily a running team, but they may want to test this secondary.
Edge: Seahawks
Seahawks run offense vs. Broncos run defense
Marshawn Lynch doesn’t like podiums or talking to the media, but his teammates don’t care one bit because the Beast Mode punishment he imparts sets the tone for Seattle’s offense. Lynch is relentless — his 40-yard TD run changed the momentum of the game two weeks ago versus the 49ers. He is helped greatly by Pro Bowl center Max Unger and left tackle Russell Okung clearing the way inside. Robert Turbin can be a nice change-of-pace back, but this is mainly a Lynch operation and it can be lethal. He has rushed for more than 100 yards in four of six career playoff games.
The Broncos obliterated the Patriots’ running game in the AFC title game and have come on strong, led by nose tackle Terrance “Pot Roast’’ Knighton, linebackers Danny Trevathan and Wesley Woodyard and defensive end Jeremy Mincey will be sealing the edge. In the last four games, Denver’s defense has allowed just 70 rushing yards per game.
Edge: Seahawks
Special teams
The two best teams also might have the two best kickers. All Denver’s Matt Prater did this season was break the NFL record with a 64-yard field goal, and he has the leg strength to cut through any wind. Seattle’s Steven Hauschka’s leg might not be quite as strong but it’s got plenty of distance, and he’s hit 17 of 18 field goals from 40 yards or longer. Britton Colquitt has the best job around — he has punted just one time in two playoff games, thanks to Peyton Manning’s offense. Jon Ryan and the Seattle punt coverage team are adept at pinning the ball inside the 10-yard line.
It will be interesting to see if the Seahawks use potential game-breaker Percy Harvin on the return teams, given his lack of playing time and the fact Golden Tate on punt returns and Doug Baldwin on kickoff returns have been excellent. Denver’s Trindon Holliday averaged 8.5 yards on punt returns and 27.7 yards on kickoffs but has, at times, had issues with fumbling.
Edge: Broncos
Coaching
This is the third Super Bowl for John Fox, who went to his first at the Giants defensive coordinator after the 2000 season and took the Panthers to Super Bowl XXXVII after the 2003 season. He’s the sixth coach to take two franchises to Super Bowls and is looking for his first Super Bowl victory. He has had quite a year, missing a month of the season following heart surgery. Fox is a defensive coach by nature, but it has been all-systems go on offense with Manning at the controls.
Pete Carroll’s style is not for everybody with his shooting hoops before team meetings and his college rah-rah he imported from USC. But his team plays mean and hard, and Carroll has his hand in everything. So who is to argue with his laid-back approach?
Edge: Broncos
Intangibles
Tops on the list is — you guessed it — the weather. Harsh conditions in the first outdoor Super Bowl in a cold-weather city would seem to favor the younger Russell Wilson and be a disadvantage to the older Peyton Manning. The forecast is for cold but moderate temperatures and no heavy wind so there could be nothing to see here.
The widespread perception is this is Peyton Manning’s Super Bowl and he is letting everyone else, including the Seahawks, play in it. This game is being characterized as a referendum on his legacy — Best Ever if he wins, Great but Somehow Lacking if he loses. The Seahawks never have won a Super Bowl, and it’s likely their passionate 12th Man fan base will be dwarfed by the legion of Broncos fans in the building.
Edge: Broncos
Staff predictions
Zach Braziller
Seahawks 27, Broncos 21
Defense wins championships and the Seahawks’ playmaking unit was the NFL’s best. Peyton Manning will throw for 300 yards, but he also will throw a crucial pick-six. The NFC was the vastly superior conference this season.
Mark Cannizzaro
Broncos 24, Seahawks 18
The Broncos’ defense — not the No. 1-ranked Seahawks defense — is the difference in the game, silencing “Beast Mode” more than the media did this week.
Brian Costello
Broncos 35, Seahawks 13
Peyton Manning will pick apart the Seahawks and he will get his second ring. Russell Wilson has faded in the playoffs and the Broncos defense is playing its best football. Denver will stop Marshawn Lynch and Wilson will not be able to beat them.
Bart Hubbuch
Seahawks 24, Broncos 19
History says great defense usually trumps great offense in the Super Bowl. Just ask the ’90 Bills or the ’02 Raiders, both of whom had “unstoppable” No. 1-ranked offenses that were stopped cold in the Big Game.
Brian Lewis
Broncos 28, Seahawks 24
Richard Sherman and Seattle’s top-ranked defense won’t let Denver shred them, but expect to see Peyton Manning & Co. pull out the win.
Paul Schwartz
Broncos 24, Seahawks 17
All those touchdown passes, all those passing yards, the remarkable comeback from neck surgery, it cannot all be for naught, can it? Doesn’t it have to end with Peyton Manning claiming a second Super Bowl victory? Nothing comes easily against the Seahawks but in the end, it’s got to be Peyton’s night.
Steve Serby
Broncos 26 Seahawks 23
When you face a quarterback who doesn’t seem to understand no one should be able to come back from four neck surgeries the way he has, you leave MetLife Stadium as the Legion of Doom and Gloom.
Mike Vaccaro
Broncos 31, Seahawks 17
That breeze you’ll feel around 10:30 Sunday? That won’t be a cold front but rather the wings of destiny carrying Peyton Manning to a place where nobody will question his postseason chops again … until next year, when everyone reminds him Brady still has one more.
George Willis
Broncos 31, Seahawks 28
I’m fascinated by the matchup of the No.1 offense versus the No.1 defense. I still think defense wins championships, but Denver is loaded with offensive weapons and the best ever in Peyton Manning. The favorable forecast also benefits the Broncos and I’m not sure the Seahawks’ Legion of Boom can be physical enough to impact the game. Beast Mode needs to have a big day to give Seattle any chance, but Peyton winning a Super Bowl in Eli’s building is too much karma to go against.