TORONTO — This simply won’t work.
You can’t produce a game like this, a multi-platform meltdown, when you’ve given yourself such little room for error. Against an opponent deader than pagers or VCRs.
Let’s not sit here this morning and declare the Yankees (70-63) are officially out of the American League playoff race, because they aren’t. Far greater mathematical miracles have occurred in the wild-card era. But let’s assert that last night’s 7-2 defeat to the Blue Jays at Rogers Centre, which set them 5 1/2 games behind Oakland (75-57) — six in the loss column — is symptomatic of why the Yankees’ situation looks so bleak.
Their starting pitching, which has helped them stay afloat in this injury-riddled campaign, is showing serious holes, and the once-brilliant Hiroki Kuroda has sprung a leak at a most inopportune moment. The Blue Jays knocked around Kuroda for seven runs (five earned) and nine hits last night, giving the AL East cellar-dwellers a 2-1 edge in this series.
Kuroda has an 8.10 ERA in his last three starts. Combine Kuroda’s downturn with the season-long struggles of CC Sabathia, who starts the Yankees’ next game tomorrow night against Baltimore, and the epic problems of Sunday’s starter Phil Hughes, and you have a liability where you can least afford it.
Without strong starting pitching, Joe Girardi said, “It’s going to make it very, very hard” to pull this off.
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In losing their second straight series, the Yankees also suffered a pair of damaging malfunctions that spoke to greater realities. Catcher Chris Stewart, who originally was supposed to be Francisco Cervelli’s co-tenant or backup behind the plate rather than the primary occupant, dropped a Kuroda called third strike to J.P. Arencibia in the first inning — the result of crossed signals, Stewart said. With the ball far away from home, Stewart conceded, he should have held onto the ball once he retrieved it. Instead, his throw to first hit Arencibia in the back and went into foul territory in right field. Brett Lawrie (from second base) and Rajai Davis (from first) scored in the “Bad News Bears”-like sequence. Stewart, with a career-high 90 games on his ledger, has been overexposed.
In the top of the fourth, with the Yankees mounting a rally and two runs already on the board, third-base coach Rob Thomson sent Alex Rodriguez (coming from first base) home on Mark Reynolds’ blast off the right-field wall. The lumbering A-Rod, 38 with a pair of surgically repaired hips, was thrown out easily on an 8-4-2 play, killing the momentum. Thomson’s poor decision — he copped to it, saying he read the play too early — reminded us, not that we needed it, how much the Yankees are relying on older, limited players to make this happen.
And if you want to know the most meaningful sign of all that a September surge ain’t happening in The Bronx, just look at these two numbers: 529 and 535. That’s the Yankees’ runs scored and runs allowed this season. It’s to the team’s credit, especially Girardi’s, they have outplayed their run differential to this juncture. It’s difficult to complete that mission, however, even though the Yankees’ lineup looks much better than it did in the first half.
Let’s examine three of the most memorable late-season runs from the Yankees’ neighborhood to the playoffs:
1) In 2011, the Rays were 73-60 after 133 games and trailed the Red Sox (82-51), who led the AL East at the time, by nine games. The Rays’ run differential after 133 games was 571-508; they were under-performing their expectations. Tampa Bay was on track for an uptick, and it went 18-11 to claim the AL wild card over collapsing, fried-chicken-munching and beer-guzzling Boston.
2) Also in 2011, the Cardinals were 69-64 and trailed the Braves (79-54) by 10 games in the National League wild-card race. St. Louis had scored 617 runs and allowed 583. Tony La Russa’s bunch also should have expected an improvement, and the Cardinals posted a 21-8 mark to leap over Atlanta and subsequently win the World Series.
3) In 2004, the Astros, having lost Andy Pettitte to left elbow surgery for the rest of the season, were 70-63, just like Pettitte’s 2013 Yankees. The differences, however, were twofold: 1) Houston trailed the Cubs (73-60) by just three games in the NL wild-card race; and 2) with a 654-584 run differential, the Astros were due for a major improvement. They finished the season with a 22-7 run.
So the Yankees must produce better starting pitching, get more out of their old and tired players and benefit from some luck when they’ve already received their fair share. That must start pretty much immediately.
A run like that is a terrible bet. Everything you see, both on the field and in the statistical analysis, tells you the Yankees will be home for October. Go with your gut, and your brain, too.
kdavidoff@nypost.com