Sunday
Bills (+2 ½) over BUCCANEERS: Buffalo had Falcons dead-to-rights in Toronto, but fumbled it away in the late going. Turnover plagues frequently generate subsequent increased focus, and we’ll count on that, against Bucs side having trouble maintaining steady ball control.
Raiders (+2 ¹/₂) over JETS: Absent positive developments, can’t envision Gang Green rebound. Neither offense is blessed with copious tangible resources, and Raiders QB Matt McGloin appears to enjoy current advantage. Playbook.com notes that Jets carry worst-of-all NFL home-favorite stats (61-100-5, against the spread), going back to 1980! This is the winter of Jets discontent.
Giants (+3) over CHARGERS: The Bolts’ bull case is that Philip Rivers is rockin’, comes off a rare low-production game, and his December won-lost record is extraordinary. That said, will assume contrarian posture and look for Eli Manning to make amends (after getting blistered here eight years ago) against franchise he chose not to play for. Manning was sharp against the Redskins, and the Chargers secondary isn’t much stiffer.
REDSKINS (+3) over Chiefs: We contemplated coach Mike Shanahan’s secondary, and home side’s horrific special teams, but there are a handful of reasonable, substantive technical reasons to embrace Washington, in addition to injuries to key Chiefs. Also note that Kansas City is virtual certainty to make postseason, even should they coast through December.
RAVENS (-6 ¹/₂) over Vikings: Would rather tease these Ravens than lay chubby number, but even if hurting Adrian Peterson provides steady ground support, not eager to use Matt Cassel-led Vikings at one of the league’s most hostile environments in hostile weather conditions.
PATRIOTS (-11) over Browns: At this writing, it appears Jason Campbell will be sufficiently recovered from his aches and pains to start here, but an ouchy, gun-shy Campbell remains no bargain. This isn’t vintage Patriots, and Cleveland defense is underrated, but this remains barely in “lay” territory.
BENGALS (-6 ½) over Colts: Clash laden with serious postseason seeding implications, given these two comfortably lead their respective divisions. Mortal cinch to cop AFC South crown even with loss here, Colts are diminished by Reggie Wayne’s absence, but this could come down to Cincy looking to hold off another of Andrew Luck’s graceful second-half rallies — with the back door wide-open.
Lions (+2 ½) over EAGLES: Here comes Matthew Stafford, licking his chops at sight of Philly’s pass defense, especially with his choice array of weaponry. Lions braintrust capable of mishandling a one-car funeral, but suspect this may not be painless afternoon for Eagles QB Nick Foles.
Dolphins (+3) over STEELERS: Both sides struggling to avoid untenable postseason positioning. Despite too-frequent fourth-quarter stumbles, lean visitors at market with WR Mike Wallace’s return to the Steel City, but their iffy running game — in tandem with likelihood they never will see 30 degrees all day at Heinz — makes this tight fit.
Falcons (+7) over PACKERS: Green Bay elects not to rush back Aaron Rodgers from a fractured collarbone. With rag-armed Matt Flynn on duty instead, Cheeseheads remain choice near-term short sale.
Titans (+12) over BRONCOS: Third straight road game? Don’t sweat it, as significant points worth taking against hyped side in clear command of the AFC, even with coach John Fox slated to return to the scene of the action. Payton Manning performance level in 15-degree weather will be of much interest.
CARDINALS (-6 ½) over Rams: We rarely lay significant number to underdog master Jeff Fisher, but with more than “just” Larry Fitzgerald to throw to, Cardinals QB Carson Palmer is experiencing something resembling a renaissance (dinged elbow, and all), and Arizona defense steps it up before home folks.
49ERS (-2 ½) over Seahawks: Niners blessed with full complement of receivers, unlike in Week 2 humiliation at Pete Carroll’s place, and are primed to take advantage of nicked-up Seattle corners. Doubt Percy Harvin will be risked in this spot.
SAINTS (-3) over Panthers: Saints flight delays, forcing them to delay Seattle departure until Tuesday morning, shortened preparation week, but this is home, sweet home for Drew Brees and Sean Payton, who have made such beautiful New Orleans music together. Would rather back Carolina against this foe two weeks hence.
Monday
BEARS (-1) over Cowboys: Three years away from the postseason has sharpened Cowboys’ hunger, and NFC East title is a real possibility. But that doesn’t necessarily mean they will win here, against Josh McCown (he will do against this Cowboys secondary, if he doesn’t take foolish chances), talented receivers, and Matt Forte. This is Tony Romo in December, after all.
LAST WEEK: 7-6
SEASON: 79-93-2