Sunday
Colts (+2 ¹/₂) over CARDINALS: No certainty for Indianapolis, without Reggie Wayne, and respect what Arizona coach (and last year’s interim Colts head coach) Bruce Arians has accomplished this season, but even should Cardinals wrest early lead, Andrew Luck’s not done until the final gun, and hosts needed to win turnover battle after failing to get running game going against Jaguars.
RAVENS (-3 ½) over Jets: Rex Ryan returns to his previous haunts (as Raven defensive coordinator). The Jets have a way of rebounding off horrendous losses, but weight of evidence forces us to focus on their horrific record when visiting Ravens (lost in Baltimore in ’05, ’07 and ’11). That doesn’t make Gang Green unique, as this home field’s among strongest in the league this century. Joe Flacco cops another.
Cowboys (+2 ½) over GIANTS: Though, yes, Tony Romo’s list of ’13 signal-calling victims is eerily similar, the Giants come off wins over Josh Freeman, Matt Barkley, an gimpy Terrelle Pryor, and Scott Tolzien — not exactly Murderers’ Row. No cinch either way, but dispassionate analysis dictates taking points.
Bucs (+9) over LIONS: Those who labeled Tampa Bay “the best 0-7 NFL team ever” look better now. Since loss to Carolina, Buccaneers took the Seahawks to overtime, beat the Dolphins on a Monday night, and got revenge on the Falcons, behind strong-armed rookie Mike Glennon. Now this pup catches Lions, fresh off their physical beating by the Steelers — and looking ahead to Green Bay on Thursday.
Jaguars (+10) over TEXANS: Tough to take sides in this hot mess, but Texans’ braintrust’s move to reinsert longtime starter Matt Schaub under center after young Case Keenum was having demonstrable issues with Oakland’s defense has sown further unease and confusion. You can’t underestimate the inherent edge of catching significant points against a now-mediocre division foe.
PACKERS (-4 ¹/₂) over Vikings: Titletown continues to pine for Aaron Rodgers’ return, which leaves Scott Tolzien to hold serve once more. Vikings tough to embrace with Christian Ponder and that defense, even though a banged-up Adrian Peterson is better than none.
Chargers (+4 ¹/₂) over CHIEFS: Tricky, because the most effective kind of quarterbacking against Andy Reid’s Chiefs involves getting the ball off efficiently, because of Kansas City’s defensive speed. Rooting for Philip Rivers to deliver — and snap the Chargers’ three-game losing streak. The Chiefs are a bit blue after failing to defend their undefeated status — and next week’s return date with Broncos undeniable lookahead.
DOLPHINS (+4 ½) over Panthers: Tough call, given Miami’s chronic offensive-line issues, the associated soap opera, and Carolina’s coming fresh off their nifty 49ers/Patriots double. But the favorite won’t have defensive end Charles Johnson, after sustained seasonal surge culminating with most-fortunate home score over Patriots.
BROWNS (-1 ½) over Steelers: Going to trust the condition of Jason Campbell’s ribs, though reluctant — given Cleveland’s role-reversal to favoritism. Throw out Browns’ last loss. Cincinnati’s better than all but their biggest boosters thought, and teams (such as the Steelers) frequently have issues trying to follow up after second-half-rallies achieved along the lines of their victory over Detroit.
Bears (+1) over RAMS: Monsters of the Midway need this in the worst way, to continue to cling to viable hope of winning NFC Central. Both sides in strong positions, from a technical handicapping stance, but must prefer the remarkably mature Josh McCown to Kellen Clemens.
Titans (-1) over RAIDERS: Raiders offensive pieces (including sidelined receiver Denairius Moore) remain nicked up, and wary of embracing this group in near-pick situations. Titans boast more positive experience, superior resilience, and haven’t been blown out on the road all season, so are likely to hang in.
PATRIOTS (+2 ½) over Broncos: New England in gnarly mood after unhappy Carolina ending. Return of Rob Gronkowski has rejuvenated Patriots’ offense. New England’s secondary a concern, but that Broncos quarterback has to deliver at Gillette to get it done. Wind chill’s projected in single digits, with winds in the 20-plus mph range. Good luck with that, Mr. Prime Time Manning. Bill Belichick knows about teams that peak too early.
Monday
REDSKINS (+5 ½) over 49ers: Vernon Davis’ return to aid Colin Kaepernick proved significant in New Orleans, though Niners were robbed by the zebras, and now must sustain diligence to achieve NFC wild-card spot. Visitors’ travel logistics are nasty, though coach Jim Harbaugh boasts amazing record off losses, especially on defensive side. But line’s high, going higher, and this is a tempting spot for contrarians.
LAST WEEK: 4-8-2.
SEASON: 64-82-2.