GREEN BAY, Wis. — Some forecasts for the NFC wild-card matchup Sunday afternoon are calling for a high of minus-5 degrees with a seemingly impossible wind-chill factor of as low as minus-51.
49ers weather?
Don’t laugh.
With the Ice Bowl and their famed “frozen tundra” at Lambeau Field, the Packers might have the more celebrated history when it comes to playing in arctic conditions. And the Niners are coming from sunny California.
But of the two teams that will brave what could end up being the coldest game in NFL history, it is the 49ers — with their bruising, run-first offense and a tough, physical defense — who appear to be built better for the conditions.
Newly healthy Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is one of the league’s better scramblers and rookie running back Eddie Lacy has given Green Bay the dangerous running game it’s lacked for years, but San Francisco’s rushing attack is relentless, multi-faceted and punishing.
With Frank Gore and quarterback Colin Kaepernick leading the way, the Niners ranked third in the league in rushing and averaged a hefty 4.4 yards per carry as a team. They had more than 100 yards rushing in all but five games in 2013, including 200-plus yards in victories over the Rams and Jaguars.
The Packers — who ranked 25th in the league in run defense — know how dangerous the Niners’ multifaceted ground attack can be after watching Kaepernick romp for an NFL playoff record 181 yards and two TDs in a 45-31 division round victory last season.
And if you think Kaepernick is going to be intimidated by the brutal temperatures, think again. He is a Milwaukee native who grew up playing in the snow and cold while picturing himself in a starring role at Lambeau.
“I don’t think my dream was to play in freezing weather,” Kaepernick said last week. “But to be in the playoffs and have this opportunity — yes, it’s part of the dream.”
That dream is to get the 49ers back to the Super Bowl and finish the job they couldn’t against the Ravens in New Orleans last February. Even with the weather, San Francisco has to like its chances of taking the first step in that journey Sunday.
MARQUEE MATCHUP
49ers RB Frank Gore vs. Packers ILB A.J. Hawk
Gore was his usual prolific self in 2013, compiling his seventh consecutive 1,000-yard rushing season with 1,128 yards and nine touchdowns while averaging 4.1 yards a carry. The Niners’ bruising back never has averaged less than 4.0 yards per attempt for a season in his nine-year career. Hawk isn’t flashy but led the Packers with 118 tackles this season and is Green Bay’s best run-stuffer. His already difficult job today will be made even tougher by the injury absence of fellow linebacker Clay Matthews.
THE HARBAUGH DIFFERENCE
This series has done a complete about-face since the Niners hired Jim Harbaugh before the 2011 season. Green Bay had won 13 of the previous 14 meetings dating to 1996 before Harbaugh took over, but San Francisco has victories in the three matchups with Harbaugh at the helm.
Not only that, but the Niners have beaten the Packers in every possible manner during that stretch — at Lambeau, at Candlestick Park and in the playoffs.
The 49ers also enter Sunday’s game with a much better record at 12-4 (compared to the Packers’ 8-7-1), which — combined with the expected weather — might explain why Green Bay needed corporate help to avoid a local TV blackout this week despite its vaunted season-ticket waiting list.
RODGERS TO THE RESCUE?
QB Aaron Rodgers returned last week from a nearly two-month absence because of a collarbone injury and sneaked the Packers into the playoffs with a performance that looked anything but rusty.
Rodgers tossed two interceptions early, but quickly regained his MVP form and finished with 318 yards and two TDs while completing 25 of his 39 passes in the 33-28 road win over the Bears.
Rodgers hasn’t been enough for the Packers to thrive in the playoffs recently, though. Green Bay is just 1-2 in the postseason since he led them to a Super Bowl crown in the 2010 season, despite Rodgers throwing for five TDs against just two interceptions in that span.
Then again, Rodgers is at his best at home. The Packers are 37-10 with him as the starter at Lambeau, and Rodgers has posted an sterling 109.1 passer rating in those games by completing 67 percent of his attempts with 97 TDs against just 22 interceptions.
PICKING THEIR POISON
As if the Packers don’t have enough to worry about with the 49ers’ potent running game, injuries at linebacker will leave them vulnerable against Vernon Davis — one of the most dangerous pass-catching tight ends in the league.
Davis had six catches for 98 yards and two TDs in the first meeting of these teams, a 34-28 San Francisco victory at Candlestick Park in the season opener. He finished with 52 catches, averaging a spectacular 16.3 yards per reception, and tied his career high with 13 TDs.
Even if Green Bay contains Davis, the Niners have big wideout Anquan Boldin to pick up the slack.
NUMBERS TO KNOW
8: Players sent to this year’s Pro Bowl by the 49ers, tied for most in the league.
44: Sacks by 49ers defensive end Aldon Smith, second most in the NFL (including playoffs) since he entered the league in 2011.
5: Consecutive seasons with a passer rating of 100 or better for Packers QB Aaron Rodgers, most in NFL history.
Hubbuch’s Hunch
The 49ers have gotten inside the Packers’ heads since Harbaugh arrived three years ago, and they actually are better built than the Packers for the expected brutal weather at Lambeau Field. Rodgers looked a lot like his old self last week, but San Francisco is surging.