In the third of a six-part series to get you prepared for your fantasy baseball draft, Roto Files analyzes middle infielders. Next week: starting pitchers.
The star of your fantasy team this season most likely will be your first or third baseman. As many as eight corner infielders could be drafted in the first round in a 12-team league, making the corners the most loaded positions on the board.
Fortunately for nervous managers, they also are the most predictable: Pujols, Rodriguez, Teixeira, Howard, Fielder, Longoria, Cabrera, Wright.
These all are Hall of Fame-caliber players at or near their peaks, with good injury track records. They will hit a ton. The only question is, how many tons.
The second tiers at each position are relatively clearly defined as well. At that stage of the draft, when the inevitable run on B-grade starting first or third basemen materializes, the key will be discipline. Don’t panic-pick Michael Young, for example, because your buddies are grabbing all the third basemen — you will be able to wait three rounds and take him in a value slot.
A few more factors to consider:
FACT ALBERT
If you’re the lucky duck with the first overall pick, don’t think twice. Take Cardinals first baseman Albert Pujols and enjoy the fantasy fruits of the best player in the Milky Way.
1st AMENDMENTS
Mark Teixeira, Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera are bunched together as projected middle-first-round to early-second-round picks. Many experts like the Yankees’ Teixiera — hitting in front of Alex Rodriguez for six months and taking aim at the Stadium’s short porch — best from this group. Roto Files prefers Howard. Last season was the second most productive of Teixiera’s career (.292 average, 39 HRs, 122 RBIs), and by fantasy standards it wasn’t much better than the worst of Howard’s four full campaigns. Cabrera represents the biggest risk, albeit limited. The Tigers have bust potential, which could submarine his RBI and run scored totals.
‘A’-1, WRIGHT-2?
Alex Rodriguez’s 30 homers, 100 RBIs and 78 runs in three-quarters of a post-injury season last year portend a monster 2010. He no longer may be a .300 average or 20-steal provider, but he will not slouch in those categories either — he’s a surefire top-five pick.
Then who? Rays third baseman Evan Longoria is a solid choice around the turn of rounds 1 and 2.
He’s young enough (24) that a 33-HR/113-RBI output last season can be seen as his floor.
Mets star David Wright is more problematic. If the Queens power outage continues from last season (10 HRs, 72 RBIs), you would be Flushing a second or even a third-round pick. If he reverts to 30-homer form, to go with the expected 20-odd steals and .310 average, you’re staring at a bona fide first-round selection.
JUST EYE THE POD
Atop the next batch of first basemen comes Adrian Gonzalez, an awesome slugger in a destitute Padres lineup. Pass for now and hope his value drops. Then see if you can swing a trade before he ships to Fenway in the summer. The Reds’ Joey Votto is a great Round 5 option if he stays healthy. Kendry Morales needs to prove he’s not a one-hit wonder in Anaheim. Rebounding Lance Berkman could be the best, cheapest route of all.
jlehman@nypost.com