Entertainment

New focus on the big picture

There are a FEW new twists that could produce a surprise when the envelope containing the name of the Best Picture Oscar is opened tonight. For the first time since the 1944 ceremony, there are 10 nominees in this category. And to prevent any film from winning with just 11 percent of the vote, the academy has introduced a convoluted new tabulation system.

Voters are asked to rank all 10 titles preferentially. If no title is listed at No. 1 on at least 50 percent of the ballots, then the winner will likely be decided based on a weighted system that considers second-place choices.

“This makes it the hardest race to pick in memory,” says one longtime Oscar consultant, who like most experts thinks it’s a tight fight for Best Picture between “The Hurt Locker” and “Avatar.”

COMPLETE LIST OF OSCAR NOMINEES

Most experts give the edge to “The Hurt Locker,” which has won awards from most industry groups, including the highly predictive producers and directors, as well as almost all of the critics’ awards. “Avatar” won the Golden Globe for best dramatic picture and five awards from the Visual Effects Society — but captured only two minor awards at the British Academy Awards, whose voters significantly overlap those for the Oscars.

Some Oscar prognosticators predict that if neither title captures enough first-place votes, there could be an upset victory by “Inglourious Basterds,” which won the ensemble prize at the Screen Actors Guild Awards.

“This happened with ‘Crash,’ but such surprises are extremely rare,” says another veteran Oscar consultant. “This theory supposes that ‘Basterds’ is going to be the second choice for most of the ‘Avatar’ and ‘Hurt Locker’ voters. But a lot of people I’ve spoken with just don’t think ‘Inglourious’ has the gravitas for Best Picture.”