Threats, bombs and at least 36 dead didn’t stop Iraqis from voting on Sunday. But the harder part — forming a new, more inclusive national government — lies ahead.
Formal results won’t come for a few days. We’ll learn how many votes, authentic and fraudulent, went to each of the big five parties and fringe elements. But the news looks good, so far.
The biggest question for us in this election has been how much influence Iran might have in the aftermath. Tehran pulled out all the stops — funneling in money and agents, sponsoring terror and engaging in no end of political chicanery.
Ahmed Chalabi, the con man hailed by the Bush administration as Iraq’s George Washington, has been Iran’s point man. Cozy with the Revolutionary Guard and flush with ill-gotten wealth, he’s done his best to alienate Iraq’s Sunni Arabs from the election process.
The good news is that it doesn’t appear to have worked. Sunnis didn’t boycott the vote. And even among Chalabi’s fellow Shia (60 percent of Iraq’s population), nationalism seems a stronger force than Tehran’s fanaticism.
Iran will be represented in the next Iraqi parliament through its cat’s-paws — but it won’t dominate.
Instead, initial estimates (still subject to whopping fraud) show that, among the 80 percent of Iraqis who are ethnic Arabs (Shia or Sunni), the desire for security, justice and public order outweighed the lure of extremism.
The voting itself was another defeat for the remnants of al Qaeda in Iraq and the Shia militias. Iraqis don’t want to surrender their daily lives to religious tyranny.
A further force for secular government comes from the 20 percent of Iraqis who are Kurds. Traditionally, Kurds support a coalition of their two main parties (PUK and KDP). This time around a third party, Change, shook up the vote in Kurdistan — sufficiently to push forward its anti-corruption program.
If the overall tally comes out as now projected, it will be very good news, indeed. But another big question still has to be answered: Will the Sunni Arabs, who feel discriminated against, be content with the outcome of the vote in their provinces? If they perceive widespread fraud favoring Shias, count on violence.
For all that, the portents are good. No single party or election alliance will get a majority in parliament. A multiparty coalition will have to be built. Nouri al-Maliki, the current prime minister, will joust with former PM Ayad Allawi to head the government. Resolution may take months. The squabbling will be ugly.
But a grand coalition would be the best possible outcome for Iraq at this stage. If pro-Iranian elements are excluded or marginalized, even better.
Then the even harder part begins. Iraq faces colossal problems. Corruption, not terrorism, is now the No. 1 obstacle to development and social peace. Iraqis want tangible improvements in their daily lives. They need their government to deliver.
Progress will require management of a pending flood of oil wealth that limits theft to bearable amounts. An improved security situation and adherence to contract law are essential to entice foreign investment — and expertise — beyond the oil fields. Iran won’t stop meddling.
In the north, there’s still no resolution of the political status of the traditionally Kurdish city of Kirkuk, on the sharing of oil receipts or on internal boundaries. Those issues, too, could result in civil strife.
Many ways remain in which Iraq could go off the rails. By the end of this week, election fraud could result in a burst of bloodshed. Terror won’t just go away.
But there are solid grounds for sober optimism and the expectation of slowly improving government in Baghdad. The elections happened. And they were genuinely contested — not merely on ethnic or religious lines but on national issues, as well.
For all its tragic missteps, the Bush administration may have done a great thing in the end: Democracy in Iraq may work to a serviceable degree. That would, indeed, change the Middle East for the better over time.
Now it’s up to President Obama not to flee from our last responsibilities (and opportunities). Iraq’s fate is immeasurably more important than Afghanistan’s.
Mr. President, don’t walk off the field in the ninth inning.
Ralph Peters’ new book, “Endless War,” goes on sale this week.