WASHINGTON – A political party of Shiite Muslim leaders – many of whom have close ties to Iran – is poised to dominate today’s elections in Iraq and sweep the U.S.-backed prime minister from power.
Forecasters in Washington and Baghdad predict Iraq’s next prime minister will come from the United Iraqi Alliance, a slate of candidates and parties that has been blessed by Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani. The revered cleric holds enormous influence over the long-suppressed Shiites, who are 60 percent of Iraq’s population.
The “Sistani list” is expected to place first and gain as much as 40 percent of the seats in the 275-member National Assembly, which will then choose a president, two deputies and the powerful prime minister. There are 111 political parties on the ballot.
U.S. and Iraqi officials expect Interim PM Iyad Allawi’s ticket will place third – with second place going to a Kurdish-dominated slate that is expected to benefit from a huge turnout of Kurds in relatively tranquil northern Iraq.
“It is certain that the United Iraqi Alliance will win the most seats and will demand the prime ministership when this is all over,” said Andrew Apostolu, an expert on Iraq with the Foundation for the Defense of Democracy.
Candidates from the United Iraqi Alliance have vowed to promote a secular government, have been cultivating ties with Washington and claim that other ethnic groups are included in its conglomerate.
But the Sistani list includes rogue politicians like Ahmed Chalabi and clerics tied to renegade cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, as well as leaders of several parties that have longstanding ties to Iran.
Experts say its rise to prominence is not necessarily the result the Bush administration wants.
“We are probably still going to get an ally with this group. But instead of getting another Great Britain, we are probably going to get another France,” said Michael Rubin, a former Pentagon official.
Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, a Shiite cleric who heads the Supreme Council of the Islamic Revolution, Iraq’s largest political party, is No. 1 on the Sistani list, but has said he is not seeking the job of prime minister.
The French-educated Adel Abdul-Mahdi, currently Iraq’s finance minister, is considered the leading candidate to be PM.
How it works
* About 14 million Iraqis vote for a 275-member National Assembly.
* The Assembly then elects three-member presidency council, which nominates new prime minister.