I believe the Yankees absolutely, positively have to sign or not sign Robinson Cano.
Yes, as firm stands go, that isn’t exactly the give me liberty or give me death of baseball advocacy. Yet, it sums up where my thoughts are even now as outside teams — as of 12:01 a.m. Tuesday — gain the right to sign Cano.
During the 2012 season — a year and a half before Cano could even file for free agency — Alex Rodriguez was the first to proclaim to me that the most monumental issue facing the Yankees on a macro-level was Cano’s future.
At the time, Cano was still represented by Scott Boras and Rodriguez had yet to be implicated in the Biogenesis mess. Still, A-Rod saw the big-picture implications: Would the Yankees talk tough, but ultimately do what was financially necessary to retain a great homegrown player or would they truly signal a different direction — prioritizing staying under the $189 million luxury-tax threshold for 2014 and showing they were no longer willing to do titanic deals — irony alert — such as the one with Rodriguez?
What would I do?
Let’s start with this: The Cano price tag is going to be, by far, the richest ever for a second baseman and probably one of the most lucrative ever overall.
Thus, when someone says don’t give Cano more than a four- or five-year contract, understand that means you don’t keep him. The Yankees already have offered a seven-year deal for roughly $165 million. Is it possible the Yankees try to lessen the years by raising the yearly pay — something like five years at $150 million — and see if Cano would take an annual record for any player and attempt to go back out on the market at 36?
Doubtful. The strong likelihood is it is going to take more in dollars and/or years than seven at $165 million to sign the best free agent available. The industry is flush with cash, and as offensive as this might be to the average worker, $20 million-plus per is just not that special now. Twenty-nine contracts for that amount already have been done, many in the past 24 months. And $20 million is the ante for Cano, a starting point.
So what should the Yankees do?
The Yankees already know that, unlike Derek Jeter or even A-Rod, Cano does not motivate ticket buying. Fans love his talent, but many are put off by a sense he does not hustle.
Still, the best reason to walk away is the lousy success rate of these types of pacts. Forget the easy target, A-Rod, and know CC Sabathia and Mark Teixeira just completed the fifth seasons of eight-year contracts (Sabathia’s became eight years with an extension) and, well, how do those look?
Conversely, the Yankees have enjoyed the benefits of winning it all in the first year of those contracts and have been contenders in every season. If you want access to these types of stars, you essentially pay for the short-term certainty with long-term risk. The Yanks can walk away from Cano and spend the $20 million-$25 million on multiple other pieces on shorter-term contracts. This would be the Cardinal paradigm: Letting Albert Pujols walk, yet remaining high-end contenders.
However, the Cardinals had a fertile system/young talent base, and the Yankees do not. Still, the Yankees plan to remain contenders. And for the team with the deepest pockets and that mandate, having Cano for the next few years is the best play.
But at what price?
The Yankees should make a powerful offer, eight years at $200 million. There is obvious risk, but it likely comes after the contracts of Rodriguez, Sabathia and Teixeira expire. The proposal is $5 million more than the two largest second-base packages — Dustin Pedroia ($110 million) and Chase Utley ($85 million) — combined. The $25 million annual value and $200 million total would both be the second largest given by the Yankees (after A-Rod).
But the Yankees must then draw a line in the sand. They have talked tough that Cano is not a sign-at-any-cost player. But they have done so previously (see Rodriguez, Alex) and buckled. I think their leverage is this: Cano wants to stay. What begins now as he visits other clubs is Kabuki Theater designed to overheat the Yankees to write a larger check.
The Yankees have about $80 million to spend this offseason — $107 million-ish if A-Rod’s suspension is upheld. I suspect they will employ a hyper-aggressive approach early to signal to their fans and the industry the $189 million goal is not offsetting their DNA to win — NOW. As their shopping cart fills, there will be a point when they will need to tell Cano either take the offer or the money must be allocated elsewhere. At that point, the Yanks must really be willing to go to Plan B and Cano accepts their deal or exits.
He will have choices. For I believe, in this market, Cano could exceed $200 million. Thus, the big question in the end is not what the Yankees will do to keep him — but how much does Cano want to stay?