I think the Mets have a Polyanna problem.
They are overly susceptible to seeing the glass as half full. That is how you could spend an offseason with a rotation of Johan Santana and question marks, and still arrogantly tell agents and other organizations that you have no need for starting pitching.
This really did happen last winter. The Mets convinced themselves that flighty Ollie Perez was worth a three-year commitment, John Maine would thrive after shoulder surgery, Mike Pelfrey would not be stunted by his heavy 2008 workload or lack of consistent secondary pitches, and that Tim Redding was a legitimate No. 5 starter.
This does not mean you want to fill your organization with negative people. But you do want skeptics. A front office constantly should be contemplating how to react to worst-case scenarios. If everything went perfectly, even the Pirates and Royals would be good. Inevitably though players break down or slump, and the best organizations have obsessed on contingency plans to try to best protect themselves.
The Mets, on the other hand, convinced themselves that Ryan Church off a concussion, Daniel Murphy off one good major league month and Fernando Tatis off his first productive season in eight years could form the corner outfield of a championship team.
This, I believe, flows from the top. Fred Wilpon is a decent man who wants to see the best. His spirit has infected the organization. There is talk of a free flow of ideas and that people should not be afraid to talk up. But when general manager Omar Minaya was hired, the two most internal critical voices in the organization, Al Goldis and Bill Livesey, were removed. In their place, Minaya turned to pals Sandy Johnson and Bryan Lambe.
But I keep hearing that Minaya then froze that duo out of the loop, as well, because they did not follow a see-no-evil path. Now a source tells me Johnson is going to retire, in part because he has lost the ear of the general manager.
I bring this up because this a time when the Mets must be brutally self-critical. Yes, this horrible season has a lot to do with injuries that would have derailed just about any team. But a lot of it was about unacceptable crisis planning, about the failure to sprinkle the organization with enough talent to weather a storm.
Look at the Mets roster and tell me who you would bet a large sum of money will perform at their peak next year? I would say Francisco Rodriguez’s track record says he will be very good. And the combination of age and talent suggests that David Wright should rebound to play at closer to his 2007-08 production than 2009.
But after that, I would keep my money in my pocket. Santana, Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes all could return to stardom, but all will be trying to bounce back from injury. Jeff Francoeur is as likely to be his unacceptable Braves version as his positive Mets showing. Does Luis Castillo have a second strong season in a row him? Do you trust anyone in the Perez/Maine/Pelfrey triumvirate? Do positive, out-of-contention showings by Murphy, Angel Pagan and Josh Thole convince the Mets to entrust them next year with more regular roles?
The Mets cannot repeat the Murphy/Tatis/Pelfrey mistake from last year. They cannot be seduced by a snapshot of success they have seen late in the year from Murphy, Pagan and Thole. In other words, the Mets can’t be Pollyanas again.
The Mets are determined not to rebuild. They already face trouble getting people to commit to high ticket prices in Year 2 of Citi Field, so they want to strive for contention in 2010, not 2012. If that is the philosophy, then the Mets cannot con themselves into seeing just the best-case scenario. Their greatest need is to find a
No. 2 starter to protect against any decline in Santana while de-emphasizing Perez/Maine/Pelfrey.
But that is likely to be the most difficult/expensive item on their shopping list. That is why I think they should work quickly in the offseason to address their positional shortcomings at catcher, first and left field. That way they can focus the bulk of their offseason energy on finding Santana’s sidekick.
Here is what I would do: Put out strong one-year offers with a 2011 option to a group at each position. Say Rod Barajas/Bengie Molina/Miguel Olivo at catcher; Nick Johnson/Russ Branyan/Adam LaRoche at first: and Bobby Abreu, Mark DeRosa and Jermaine Dye for left field. The first guy to take the offer in each group gets the contract.
Would it work? Historically, no. But players could remember last offseason when a bad economy led to players (think Abreu, as an example) scrambling for work late into the winter and then scrounging for any guaranteed money. Perhaps a good, but not great, early offer could motivate players to jump quickly for the guaranteed money/work.
Consider the catching free-agent market, for example. It is oversaturated with veterans, and it could get deeper in December if players such as John Buck or Kelly Shoppach are non-tendered. So guaranteed money in November could look real good. There is no perfect player here, but the Mets sure need to add power, and Barajas, Molina and Olivo all at least offer that.
I know Met fans will clamor for a Jason Bay or Matt Holliday, and I previously have advocated the versatility of Chone Figgins. But Figgins likely will take a three-year contract, and Bay and Holliday much more than that at huge dollars. And in a post-Madoff world, the Mets cannot afford this and a starting pitcher (think signing a John Lackey or trading for a Carlos Zambrano).
Instead, they will have to do as best as they can under the circumstances. I think, for example, they could probably do Barajas, Johnson and DeRosa for around
$15 million total next year. It’s not great. But neither is the Mets’ financial picture. You do the best you can under the circumstances.
How does Reyes, Castillo, Beltran, Wright, DeRosa, Johnson, Francoeur, Barajas sound. Then you have a bench with Murphy, Pagan and Thole. This way when Johnson has his inevitable injury, Murphy is around. Pagan is available if Beltran’s knees need rest or Francoeur regresses to his Atlanta mode. And either Thole or Omir Santos is stashed at Triple-A as the third catcher.
It is not perfect. Only a Pollyanna would think so. But it is a deeper lineup with real protection. It begins to bolster the Mets for the unavoidable worst-case scenarios.
joel.sherman@nypost.com