Being the third-best team in the AL may have all the benefits of being a death-row inmate almost pardoned by the governor.
The Yankees, Red Sox and Rays have legitimate claims as the AL’s three best teams. With apologies to the Phillies, they may be the majors’ three best teams. But that just means someone has to finish third among them in the AL East, which guarantees the same postseason invitation the Kansas City Royals will be receiving.
The following predictions have Tampa Bay on the outside looking in, but it would be no surprise if the Rays win the division. Heck, it would be no surprise if they win the World Series:
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AL EAST
1. YANKEES: They lack a strong position player Plan B, so it is vital their key older players stay healthy and effective, which would defy odds considering how healthy and effective their older players were last year. So much talent here, though, so it is tough to pick against the Yankees.
2. RED SOX: A deep rotation, with Clay Buchholz perhaps on the precipice of breaking out, as well. They addressed iffy defense with the additions of Mike Cameron, Adrian Beltre and Marco Scutaro. If Daniel Bard fully harnesses his stuff, the bullpen also could be overpowering. The lineup lacks the fear-inducing quality it had with Manny/Papi, but is still darn good.
3. RAYS: They are overflowing with 28-and-under rotation talent (James Shields, Matt Garza, Wade Davis, Jeremy Hellickson, David Price, Jeff Niemann). Can B.J. Upton honor his pedigree after a poor year? Will Carl Crawford’s free agency impact him or the team at all? Will Rafael Soriano truly settle down the pen?
4. ORIOLES: They have a lot of good pieces in place, now the question is can they begin winning in the AL East? The answer revolves around how their young starters mature with Chris Tillman and, especially, Brian Matusz leading the way. A successful year would be 75 wins, Matusz as a strong Rookie of the Year candidate and Josh Bell integrated as the third baseman of the future.
5. BLUE JAYS: Privately, Toronto officials are not deluding themselves. They know that 100 losses are possible with Roy Halladay gone, too much inexperienced pitching and a good, but not great, lineup. Can Dustin McGowan and Shaun Marcum return from injuries to show promise for the future? Can Travis Snider join Adam Lind as a young, middle-of-the-order force?
AL CENTRAL
1. TWINS: The loss of Joe Nathan (Tommy John surgery) is a big blow. But Minnesota is deep and resourceful. Nobody is going to want to pitch an ordinary righty against a lineup with lefties Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Jim Thome, Denard Span and Jason Kubel. Is Delmon Young ready to grow into his talent?
2. WHITE SOX: A deep rotation with John Danks on the verge of ace-hood and Jake Peavy healthy and ready for his first full AL season. But will they hit enough? Gordon Beckham is a burgeoning star. However, they need Carlos Quentin to bounce back, Paul Konerko not to fade and Alex Rios to show he was not a total waste of dollars.
3. TIGERS: Justin Verlander and Rick Porcello form a promising, long-term 1-2 in the rotation. Can Max Scherzer make that a trio? Arizona had its doubts or else Scherzer would not have been traded. Miguel Cabrera says he has given up alcohol, and he was a fearsome hitter in his previous lifestyle. Johnny Damon helps, but still there is an overall lack of offense here.
4. ROYALS: They have Zack Greinke in the rotation, Joakim Soria closing and Billy Butler in the lineup and then so much wasted money on has-beens and never-weres. KC needs Gil Meche to be healthy and pitch well so he possibly could bring more prospects in a midseason trade.
5. INDIANS: After trading two Cy Youngs (CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee), it should come as no surprise that the Indians have no impact starting pitching. Like the Royals with Meche, Cleveland could use Jake Westbrook and/or Fausto Carmona to pitch well to become midseason trade possibilities.
AL WEST
1. ANGELS: The Mariners are going to be the flavor of the month, especially because the Angels lost John Lackey, Vlad Guerrero and Chone Figgins. But the Angels have a winning style/culture that makes them hard to beat. Plus they are a deep team, especially if Brandon Wood can handle third base and Joel Pineiro proves he can pitch away from Cardinals pitching guru Dave Duncan.
2. MARINERS: If Cliff Lee gets healthy, Seattle has the best 1-2 in the AL because its ace is Felix Hernandez. And with Chone Figgins joining Ichiro Suzuki, the Mariners have an excellent 1-2 atop the lineup. But both the rotation and lineup become real mysteries after that. Seattle just may be counting too much on the volatility of Erik Bedard’s health and Milton Bradley’s temperament.
3. RANGERS: Team president Nolan Ryan is demanding 92 wins after a breakthrough 2009. So you can imagine that the first extended losing streak will put Ron Washington on an even hotter seat considering his admission to testing positive for cocaine last year. That could bring an edginess to a team relying on so many young pitchers. Josh Hamilton’s fragility also remains an issue.
4. A’S: There is interesting young pitching here, especially Brett Anderson, which could be augmented well if Ben Sheets and Justin Duchscherer are healthy. But this team is going to struggle to score runs unless talented prospects Chris Carter and Michael Taylor are ready to come up some time early in the season and make an instant impact.
joel.sherman@nypost.com