The Post’s Joel Sherman makes his predictions for the big awards and major happenings in both leagues for the 2010 season.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
MVP: Evan Longoria, Rays
Joe Mauer is the best player in the league, but it is just too hard to pick a catcher to go back-to-back even if catchers have done it previously. To round out the the top five, in fact, think first basemen: Kendry Morales, Miguel Cabrera and Mark Teixeira.
CY YOUNG: Felix Hernandez, Mariners
Tempted to pick Tampa Bay’s Matt Garza, but he just might be A.J. Burnett 2.0, great stuff that never fully translates due to issues with pitching IQ and maturity. King Felix’s ERA has dropped each of the past three seasons, down to 2.49 last year.
BEST FREE-AGENT SIGNING: Johnny Damon, Tigers
Too many folks got caught up in his defense and negotiating stance, and seemed to forget he is a terrific offensive player. Getting him on a one-year deal is a bonanza. Honorable mention to another ex-Yankee signed for one year elsewhere, Hideki Matsui with the Angels.
WORST FREE-AGENT SIGNING: Jason Kendall, Royals
This should be called the KC Annual with Jose Guillen two years ago, Kyle Farnsworth last year and now a two-year deal to a 35-year-old catcher at a time when the rest of the industry is staying away from multi-year deals for fading, older players.
BEST TRADE ACQUISITION: Javier Vazquez, Yankees
Cliff Lee is the better acquisition by Seattle, but his spring injuries are a worry. If Vazquez is just his workhorse self, he will win 15-plus games with the Yankee offense and bullpen.
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: Brian Matusz, Orioles
He has been compared to Cole Hamels with a better fastball. Texas’ Neftali Felix dropped a calling card last year. Wade Davis is already in the Tampa Bay rotation, and Jeremy Hellickson is close behind. And Austin Jackson sure was impressive in spring training for Detroit.
MANAGER OF THE YEAR: Mike Scioscia, Angels
Because he is AL Manager of the Year every year, and this season he will be challenged to replace John Lackey, Chone Figgins and Vlad Guerrero.
FIRST MANAGER FIRED: Ron Washington, Rangers
Dave Trembley also could be on thin ice with Orioles executives expecting improvements. But Washington’s coke admission puts him potentially a losing streak away from real trouble.
DON’T BE SURPRISED IF …: – Base stealers have such success against Matt Wieters that Baltimore has to wonder if his long-term position is really first base.
– The Angels decide Brandon Wood is not the third base answer and package him, Jason Bulger and Trevor Reckling to the Cubs for Aramis Ramirez, a key move in winning the AL West.
– The Red Sox finally get their man, obtaining Adrian Gonzalez from San Diego for a package that includes Daniel Bard, Josh Reddick and Junichi Tazawa.
– Cliff Lee’s nagging injuries persist and that dims the excitement around the Mariners while also hurting his free-agent value.
– Jacob Turner, who turns 19 in May, makes such a stunning professional debut that he ends the season as the No. 1 prospect in the majors, and has Tigers fans imagining a long-term rotation front three of Justin Verlander, Rick Porcello and Turner.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
MVP: Ryan Howard, Phillies
Slimmed down and staying on the ball longer, so he has a chance to hit .300 to go along with 50 homers. Tough to pick against Rockies heart and soul Troy Tulowitzki and, of course, Albert Pujols.
CY YOUNG: Roy Halladay, Phillies
Tempted to pick Colorado’s explosive Ubaldo Jimenez, who might have the best stuff in a division with Tim Lincecum, Dan Haren and Clayton Kershaw. But shift from AL East to NL East and from Toronto to Philly will showcase Halladay’s genius in the strongest way yet.
BEST FREE-AGENT SIGNING: Adam LaRoche, Diamondbacks
He has hit at least 20 homers in each of the last five years, and Arizona ― in need of lefty power ― landed him for one year at $6 million.
WORST FREE-AGENT SIGNING: Brandon Lyon, Astros
A three-year commitment to a pseudo-closer for a team that has holes just about everywhere doesn’t really add up.
BEST TRADE ACQUISITIONS: Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy, Diamondbacks
This was the NL part of the three-player trade with the Yankees (Curtis
Granderson) and Tigers. It could bite Arizona if Max Scherzer, who went to the Tigers, is a more consistent starter than the D’backs believed.
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: Jason Heyward, Braves
It feels as if two seminal rookies are about to join the league in Heyward and Washington’s Stephen Strasburg (arrival date, likely June 1); and Cincinnati’s Aroldis Chapman might be part of this discussion, as well.
MANAGER OF THE YEAR: Tony La Russa, Cardinals
If Atlanta makes a run, Bobby Cox could get a farewell gift. But La Russa and pitching coach Dave Duncan consistently maximize talent.
FIRST MANAGER FIRED: Fredi Gonzalez, Marlins
Ownership can deny, deny, deny, but Gonzalez is not on solid footing and Bobby Valentine is a real possibility to be his replacement.
DON’T BE SURPRISED IF …: – Colby Rasmus is the second-most productive hitter in the Cardinal lineup to Albert Pujols, not Matt Holliday.
– Atlanta’s Tim Hudson makes a rousing return from Tommy John surgery to win 18 games, Milwaukee’s Yovani Gallardo finishes in the top five in the Cy Young and Florida’s Ricky Nolasco rises to near co-ace status with Josh Johnson.
– Gonzalez is just the first of four NL managers fired during the season with Cincinnati’s Dusty Baker, San Francisco’s Bruce Bochy and Milwaukee’s Ken Macha also getting dispatched.
– Placido Polanco does not make a smooth transition to playing third base for the Phillies.
– Manny Ramirez hits just 17 homers in 500 at-bats.
joel.sherman@nypost.com