The Yankees’ fallback position from Cliff Lee just might be 2008.
After the 2007 season, the Yankees desperately needed a top-of-the-rotation starter, but rejected Minnesota’s request for Johan Santana. Instead, they headed into the season with the untested Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy in the rotation and wound up out of the playoffs for the first time since 1993.
Now the Yankees are contemplating just how much is too much to offer Cliff Lee. They are not just worried about his age — 33 in August — but also the overall age and long-term dollar commitment on their already graying roster. They badly need Lee, but could they afford to do it at any price?
Or do they dare hope CC Sabathia bounces back from right knee surgery, Andy Pettitte returns and stays healthy, Phil Hughes shows no ill effects from his heavy 2010 workload and that A.J. Burnett is not useless? The Yankees would be gambling a lot on that quartet’s likelihood for health and effectiveness, and still would have to go with an untested youngster to fill the
No. 5 spot. And it would be Hughes/Kennedy all over again if Pettitte decides to actually retire this time or an injury strikes one of the top four starters.
The favorite for the No. 5 spot in a non-Lee rotation would be Ivan Nova, who had good and bad moments late in the year. But remember there also is Adam Warren, who has strong supporters in the organization. And just beyond that the Yankees’ best starting prospects — Dellin Betances and Manuel Banuelos — probably will open next year no lower than Double-A. Yet gambling with youngsters in vital spots hardly fits the worldview of the team with the $200 million-plus payroll.
“No doubt he is a Yankee,” an AL executive said of Lee. “It would be too devastating to the franchise not to get him, especially when it is just going to cost money. Think about how badly they want him: He was only two months from free agency, the Yanks knew they would be the favorites and they were still willing to give up their top prospect (Jesus Montero in a July trade proposal to Seattle) to get him.
“Lee is all about the money,” the executive added. “His agent is all about the money. And the Yanks have the most money. The ramifications for not signing him are so severe for the Yankees. They can’t replicate what he brings in any other way. They are not going to waste the ton of money they already have invested for 2011 by not bringing in the finishing piece that makes all that money worth it.”
Indeed, the Yankees probably cannot replicate Lee in this marketplace. The next best free-agent starter is Carl Pavano, who has as good a chance of playing for the 2011 Yankees as Joe DiMaggio.
So how about trades? The Royals conceivably could move ace Zack Greinke. But the right-hander has had anxiety issues in the past, has an aversion to big cities and has the Yankees on his no-trade list. Multiple executives were asked if they could imagine Greinke reconsidering for the chance to play for a certain winner in New York. Each said no.
Asked to sum up the top-of-the-rotation trade market beyond Greinke, an AL executive said, “currently non-existent.” Tampa Bay might trade James Shields or Matt Garza. But would the Rays deal with the Yankees? Also, it is dubious if the fading Shields or the Burnett-esque Garza are top-of-the-rotation pieces. For now teams such as Florida (Josh Johnson), Seattle (Felix Hernandez) and the Dodgers (Clayton Kershaw) do not seem inclined to market their aces even for multiple, significant prospects.
So Lee and agent Darek Braunecker are in an enviable spot: The Yankees are desperate to get him and the Rangers are motivated to keep him. Maybe another club (the Tigers? the Cubs?) could jump in. But this appears to be a two-team race.
The Rangers still have major debt after being sold in August. But they also are nearing the start of a new TV contract that pays $80 million annually. They can expect the financial goodwill of fans/sponsors associated with reaching the World Series. And they have some new, deep-pocketed owners.
I asked eight executives where they think Lee will go. Five said the Yankees, one said the Yankees “but it is no slam dunk,” and two said the Rangers. Those who felt the Yankees would get him cited their desperation and said they could see the team going as high as six years at $150 million. The Yankees, however, have tried to make noise that they will not go that far.
One AL official suggested the Rangers’ bid could be tied to their long-term thinking on Josh Hamilton.
Texas has C.J. Wilson reaching free agency after the 2011 campaign and if the lefty repeats his 2010 success, he will be looking at a multi-year contract at about $15 million annually. Hamilton is due for free agency after the 2012 campaign. On just talent, he is a $20 million-plus player and an NL personnel man said, “I know Texas has new money, but no way they can afford two players making $20 million or more.”
But Hamilton has a well-documented substance-abuse history and a body that has broken easily.
An AL official said, “I just can’t see the Rangers giving him big money for a long time.”
If that is the case, then Texas could try to do with Lee what Minnesota is doing with Joe Mauer: Invest heavily long-term in one star and work the rest of the payroll around that.
“[Rangers president] Nolan Ryan playing stare-down with the Yankees, man that sounds like fun,” said an NL executive. “Because believe me, Nolan will be the guy pushing and pushing for Lee.”
Will the desperate Yankees push back with the full might of their wallet and the memory of 2008 and Hughes/Kennedy prodding them?
joel.sherman@nypost.com