You may have heard this before — the Jets believe they will win the Super Bowl this season.
Rex Ryan and Co. are back for Year 3 talking trash and making bold statements about playing in February. After getting to the AFC Championship Game in each of Ryan’s first two seasons, it is Super Bowl or bust in 2011.
The key for the Jets this year is toppling their blood rivals, the Patriots, and winning the AFC East. The Jets have fizzled in the conference championship game the last two years after having to go on the road three straight weeks in the playoffs. Ryan has made it clear he wants to win the division this year and bring the playoffs to the newly named MetLife Stadium.
The Jets should deal with the loss of the offseason better than most of the teams in the NFL because they did not add many new players and their coaching staff remains the same. Still, the offense bears watching early to see how Mark Sanchez clicks with new targets Plaxico Burress and Derrick Mason.
After two home games, the Jets have a brutal three-game road stretch in Oakland, Baltimore and New England. By Halloween, we should know plenty about this team.
OFFENSE
Nearly the minute the lockout ended, Ryan was talking about throwing the ball more this year. In a voicemail left for season-ticket holders, Ryan vowed to “air it out” this season.
Ryan is quick to point out the Jets won’t abandon the “Ground and Pound” approach of his first two seasons, but believes Mark Sanchez is ready to carry more of the offense in his third year. To that end, Ryan slapped a “C” on Sanchez’s jersey, making him a captain.
Can Sanchez handle it?
The answer will determine how far the Jets go this year. The front office has made sure he has plenty of people to throw to. GM Mike Tannenbaum re-signed receiver Santonio Holmes to a five-year, $45 million deal shortly after free agency began. He then went out and added Plaxico Burress, giving him $3.017 million. Burress must shake off the rust after spending nearly two years in prison. After releasing longtime Jet Jerricho Cotchery, the Jets brought in Derrick Mason, who has spent 15 years in the league.
Sanchez has been erratic in training camp, with some great throws interspersed with bonehead plays. The Jets hope they can get the Sanchez they’ve seen in the postseason to show up in the regular season. He completed just 54.8 percent of his passes last year, a number that must go up.
Sanchez is not the only third-year player the Jets offense will lean on.
Running back Shonn Greene will be the team’s “bell cow” as Ryan likes to say. LaDainian Tomlinson will take a back seat to Greene, playing mostly on third down. Greene must stay healthy and show consistency he has lacked in his first two years.
The offensive line loses right tackle Damien Woody, who retired. In his place will be longtime backup Wayne Hunter. The Jets have struggled at times to run the ball in preseason and Hunter will be a big factor playing next to veteran Brandon Moore. Pro Bowlers Nick Mangold and D’Brickashaw Ferguson anchor this group.
Grade: C
DEFENSE
All you need to know about the expectations of this group is that it finished third in the NFL in total defense last year — and that was a disappointment.
There is no reason to expect any dropoff this year. In fact, it would be shocking if the defense is not even better. It has most of last year’s starters and key reserves back.
The only new starter is defensive end Muhammad Wilkerson, the team’s first-round pick. He will take the spot of Shaun Ellis, who signed with the Patriots after getting a lowball offer from the Jets. A key along the line for the Jets this year will be depth. They felt their line got worn down last year because certain players took too many reps. This year, Ropati Pitoitua, Kenrick Ellis and Marcus Dixon should provide some depth.
A healthy Calvin Pace at outside linebacker will help the pass rush. He missed four games with a broken foot to begin last year. They will work in Jamaal Westerman as the “designated pass rusher.” David Harris got a four-year, $36 million contract at the beginning of training camp and looks to be worth every penny. He and Bart Scott form a tough duo up the middle.
The Jets went after cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha hard during free agency, hoping to form a dream tandem with Darrelle Revis. Asomugha spurned the Jets to sign with the Eagles, and Gang Green settled for a pretty nice consolation prize in Antonio Cromartie.
Cromartie clearly felt disrespected by people singing Asomugha’s praises and has vowed to play with a chip on his shoulder. The secondary has no players unfamiliar with defensive coordinator Mike Pettine’s system. The Jets brought back safeties Eric Smith and Brodney Pool and signed cornerback Donald Strickland, who played with the Jets in 2009. Safety Jim Leonhard has shown no lingering effects from breaking his leg last December.
Grade: A+
SPECIAL TEAMS
The biggest loss the Jets sustained in free agency was Brad Smith’s defection to the Bills. Smith was a special teams ace for the Jets who was as adept at returning kickoffs as he was at defending them. The Jets drafted Jeremy Kerley in the fifth round, hoping he could fill some of Smith’s role. Kerley had a good training camp, but he is still a rookie and time will tell how good he can be.
Nick Folk edged out Nick Novak in a preseason competition for the starting kicking job. Folk made 30-of-39 field goal attempts last season, and kicked the game-winner in the playoffs in Indianapolis. He had a solid training camp. The Jets let Steve Weatherford walk away and T.J. Conley won the punting job in camp by default because Chris Bryan was worse. It will be interesting to see if Conley can stick in the job after getting cut in training camp the last two years.
As upset as special teams coach Mike Westhoff must have been to see Brad Smith go, he was thrilled to see Eric Smith re-signed. Even though Smith is now the starting safety, he still will play plenty of special teams where he¹s involved on nearly every unit.
Grade: B
COACHING
Rex Ryan has not stopped talking Super Bowl from the moment he walked into the Jets headquarters. What was refreshing in 2009 could get old by 2012 if he does not deliver on the promise, though.
The Jets lost some key leaders from their locker room in Tony Richardson, Woody, Ellis and Cotchery. Ryan needs to hope he gets some leadership from other areas. He has put pressure on Sanchez and Holmes by naming them captains.
Offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer must help Sanchez progress this year or the fans will be calling for his head. He was a head coaching candidate two years ago, and those opportunities could reappear if the Jets offense picks it up.
The Jets have had little change on the coaching staff since Ryan arrived.
That continuity will be huge in a year when teams had no offseason workouts to install game plans.
Grade: B
PREDICTION: 9-7
They have a Super Bowl defense with an also-ran offense. In the end, Sanchez does not show the progress the Jets hoped for and they just miss the playoffs.
STAT CORNER
We know how these Jets fared in 2010. Now comes the hard part: Predicting how they’ll do in 2011. Here goes:
QB Mark Sanchez
2010: 54.8 percent completions, 3,291 yards, 17 TDs, 13 INTs
2011 prediction: 55.8 percent completions, 3,428 yards, 20 TDs, 17 INTs.
The Jets throw the ball more and Sanchez’s numbers increase.
WR Santonio Holmes
2010: 52 catches, 746 yards, 6 TDs
2011 prediction: 68 catches, 992 yards, 8 TDs
A full season will give Holmes a shot at 1,000 yards receiving.
RB Shonn Greene
2010: 185 rushes, 766 yards, 2 TDs
2011 prediction: 223 rushes, 914 yards, 4 TDs
An increased workload increases Greene’s rushing total, but LaDainian Tomlinson takes some touchdowns away with goal-line carries.
OLB Calvin Pace
2010: 51 tackles, 51/2 sacks, 1 forced fumble
2011 prediction: 80 tackles, 9 sacks, 2 forced fumbles.
Pace has missed the first four games each of the last two years. If he can play 16, he’ll have an impact.
BRIAN COSTELLO’S JETS YARDSTICKS
MOST IMPORTANT OFFENSIVE PLAYER
Shonn Greene. The third-year man is now the featured running back. If the Jets can’t run the ball, teams will play nickel and dime and take away the passing game.
MOST IMPORTANT DEFENSIVE PLAYER
Antonio Cromartie. If he can be the shutdown corner he thinks he can be, the Jets will be impossible to throw on. If not, prepare to see the back of the No. 31 jersey. With Darrelle Revis on the opposite side, Cromartie will see plenty of action. How he handles it determines how good the pass defense can be.
ROOKIE TO WATCH
Jeremy Kerley. The fifth-round pick out of TCU will return kicks and punts, and also will run the Jets’ Wildcat package. The diminutive Kerley has been impressive in camp. Let’s see if it carries over when it counts.
STAR ON THE RISE
David Harris. The middle linebacker gets overlooked because he’s quiet and not flashy. But No. 52 is always around the ball, making plays. The Jets gave him $29 million guaranteed last month. Watch him and you’ll see why.
BIGGEST GAME
It’s hard to pass up the two meetings with the Patriots, but both come midway through the season. The Christmas Eve battle with the Giants could be the game that gets the Jets into the playoffs or keeps them home. With Ryan’s trash talk toward Big Blue and the game coming on a holiday, this one will be huge.
BIGGEST COACHING DECISION
How much they want to turn Sanchez loose versus remaining true to their “Ground and Pound” philosophy.
DON’T BE SURPRISED IF . . .
The Jets have a new punter before October. T.J. Conley did not have a good training camp but won the job by default.
SURE TO MAKE FANS GRUMBLE
Brian Schottenheimer’s play-calling. Jets fans love to second-guess Schotty.