Post columnist Steve Serby takes a look at the NFL and breaks down each team and every division as part of our 2011 NFL Preview:
1. HOUSTON TEXANS
Coach: Gary Kubiak
2011 projection: 10-6
2010 record: 6-10
Over/under wins: 8 1/2
Odds to win Super Bowl: 25-1
Serby Says: It’s time for Coach-For-Life Gary Kubiak (37-43) to get this team over the Peyton Manning hump, especially now that elite CB Johnathan Joseph and S Danieal Manning have joined the fray. It’s time for the Franchise’s first playoff berth.
New defensive coordinator Wade Phillips has been given some impressive new toys to play with such as No. 1 draft DE J.J. Watt and No. 2 OLB Brooks Reed, whose long, blond-flowing locks and manic intensity will remind you of Clay Matthews. But for his 3-4 to operate at a high level, Mario Williams must make the transition from defensive end to outside linebacker, and that may prove to be akin to fitting a square peg into a round hole. The flip side is Williams becoming the kind of menace DeMarcus Ware has been in Dallas. Reality is probably somewhere in between. ILBs DeMeco Ryans (Achilles) and Brian Cushing (PEDs) need to rebound. As long as Arian Foster (hamstring) can stay healthy, you pick your poison with Matt Schaub also having Andre Johnson and a healthy Owen Daniels at his disposal. Kevin Walter and Jacoby Jones will have their moments. The club moved swiftly to replace bulldozer fullback Vonta Leach with Lawrence Vickers, who paved the way for Peyton Hillis in Cleveland. Ex-Giant Derrick Ward and big back Ben Tate, a 2010 No. 2 pick, can get Foster some rest. In Neil Rackers They Trust.
Drew’s Fantasy Tracker: Schaub is solid value pick in sixth round. We love Johnson, but not enough to take him in first round. Expect Foster to see fewer carries and declined production.
2. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Coach: Jim Caldwell
2011 projection: 10-6
2010 record: 10-6
Over/under wins: 9 1/2
Odds to win Super Bowl: 25-1
Serby Says: Whenever he is ready, Peyton Manning will be his usual pain in the neck for defensive coordinators. Now 35, he probably has three more years left as an elite quarterback.
Reggie Wayne can still a pain, but he’ll be 34 in November, and Pierre Garcon is the more explosive deep threat. Dallas Clark, who has such atelepathy with Manning he can probably run routes and catch passes with his eyes closed, returns from a wrist injury that cost him the second half of 2010. Austin Collie has that concussion history.
Joseph Addai is fragile, and running behind an offensive line that has never reminded anyone of the Five Blocks of Granite is risky business for him and backup rookie Delone Carter. Only Manning¹s inimitable brain and split-second decisiveness keep him from being treated unceremoniously like a sack of shrimp cocktail from St. Elmo’s. RT Ryan Diem, who hasn’t played inside in a decade, replaces Mike Pollak at RG, and No. 1 pick Anthony Castonzo is the LT.
Manning settled for a meager $90 mil to alleviate salary-cap stress. What a guy! Is there a corporate sponsor willing to step up and help the poor guy make it up? If Manning’s Ripkenesque consecutive games streak indeed ends, Kerry Collins, eight years removed from declining to be little brother Eli’s backup, is nevertheless a more comforting option than Curtis Painter. The kicking game (PK Adam Vinatieri and P Pat McAfee) is solid.
DEs Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis hunt the opposing quarterback while MLB Gary Brackett and S Melvin Bullitt chase the opposing running back.
Drew’s Fantasy Tracker: Signing of Collins is bad news for Manning’s fantasy projections. Ben Roethlisberger and Josh Freeman now are safer options. Wayne to a weak WR2. Keep Clark among top TEs.
3. TENNESSEE TITANS
Coach: Mike Munchak
2011 projection: 7-9
2010 record: 6-10
Over/under wins: 6 1/2
Odds to win Super Bowl: 65-1
Serby Says: Jeff Fisher, replaced by rookie head coach Mike Munchak, won’t be on the sidelines for the first time in 17 seasons. Matt Hasselbeck, replacing Good Riddance Vince Young, shows No. 1 pick Jake Locker how a professional quarterback goes about his business.
But the Chris Johnson holdout cast a giant shadow over the preseason. This club might be going nowhere fast, but with the electric CJ, at least they’ll be going nowhere faster. The danger now is he is likely to be more susceptible to injury given the lockout and lack of a training camp. That would mean doses of rookie Jamie Harper and Javon Ringer behind an offensive line that seems equipped to prove there is Life After Kevin Mawae. That would necessitate Hasselbeck looking for Kenny Britt, and who knows if he’ll be finding him on the police blotter and in Roger Goodell’s office? TE Jared Cook is either a nuclear-tipped weapon or cruel tease, no one yet knows.
Rookie OLB Akeem Ayers has a chance to be the defense’s best playmaker, which isn’t saying a whole lot. CB Cortland Finnegan, seeking the NFL’s Dirtiest Player honors, will trash-talk receivers until he sounds like Brando in the “Godfather” and bait them any which way but loose opposite promising Alterraun Verner. Jason Jones moves outside to defensive end opposite 2010 No. 1 pick Derrick Morgan, who missed his rookie season with an ACL injury (and will miss the early part of 2011) after the club felt like pulling its hair out when the Giants plucked Jason Pierre-Paul one spot ahead of it. Just because mammoth Shaun Smith was imported at DT doesn’t mean you won¹t be able to run on these guys.
Rob Bironas has quite the leg, and Marc Mariani is a Pro Bowl returner.
Drew’s Fantasy Tracker: Prolonged holdout makes us worried about Johnson — not just availability, but health. The longer he¹s out, the greater the injury risk. Hasselbeck will help Britt.
4. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Coach: Jack Del Rio
2011 projection: 5-11
2010 record: 8-8
Over/under wins: 6 1/2
Odds to win Super Bowl: 65-1
Serby Says: David Garrard starts the season looking over his shoulder at No. 1 pick Blaine Gabbert, as well he should. Garrard has regressed since 2007, and that means the offense goes again as Maurice Jones-Drew goes, and although MJD vows he has healed nicely from his knee surgery, and has a tank for a convoy in fullback Greg Jones, it’s even money he’ll be five-foot-2 by the end of this season.
It hardly helps that 2009 No. 1 pick Eugene Monroe has yet to show he is a franchise left tackle. The departure of Mike Sims-Walker (Rams) means munchkin Mike Thomas, a good player, but no one you fear, is the No. 1 wide receiver/punt returner opposite Jason Hill (yawn). Fortunately, MJD is a godsend catching passes out of the backfield. When Gabbert takes over, towering Pro Bowl TE Marcedes Lewis undoubtedly will become his best friend.
The failures of 2008 draft choices DEs Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves set the program back. If you can’t make Peyton Manning and Matt Schaub at least uncomfortable in the pocket, you have no chance in this division.
That burden falls on DE Aaron Kampman, back from an ACL injury, and DE Matt Roth, who is better suited as a rush linebacker. The linebacking corps is the strength of the defense with MLB Paul Posluszny and OLB Clint Session joining OLB Daryl Smith. Rashean Mathis and Derek Cox are capable corners, and FS Dawan Landry upgrades the secondary. But DTs Tyson Alualu and Terrance (Pot Roast) Knighton are being counted upon to shore up a run defense that has been sorely deficient.
Drew’s Fantasy Tracker: Jones-Drew is overrated in top-5 RB. Lewis great pick in 10th round. And then there’s . . . well, no. There’s no one else.