Post columnist Steve Serby takes a look at the NFL and breaks down each team and every division as part of our 2011 NFL Preview:
1. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Coach: Sean Payton
2011 projection: 10-6
2010 record: 11-5
Over/under wins: 10
Odds to win Super Bowl: 16-1
Serby Says: What a luxury it must have been for Sean Payton during the lockout knowing that Drew Brees was keeping his team together the way first-class leaders do. Payton and Brees are the brainiest head coach-quarterback tandem since Bill Walsh and Joe Montana. Both are gym rats and both are driven to engineer another post-Katrina championship
season. Brees and Payton have a new toy in tough-nosed running back Mark Ingram. TE Jimmy Graham made Jeremy Shockey expendable. Ingram, who will be difficult to keep out of the end zone near the goal line, was drafted in the first round in part because Pierre Thomas (ankle) and Chris Ivory (PUP list) could not be counted on.
C Olin Kreutz brings his nastiness over from the Bears to join bludgeoning guards Jahri Evans and Carl Nicks. Darren Sproles replaces Reggie Bush, who wasn¹t all Dat. Brees is a point guard who will hit the open man, be it Marques Colston, Robert Meachem, a former No. 1 pick who should be primed to make more of an impact, Lance Moore or Devery Henderson. Or Graham.
Defensive coordinator Gregg Williams is another one of those mad scientists and now mountainous DT Shaun Rogers will shield MLB Jonathan Vilma the way Haloti Ngata shields Ray Lewis. S Darren Sharper is gone, but have no fear, N’Awlins, S Malcolm Jenkins and S Roman Harper are there. Jabari Greer and Tracy Porter form the best cornerback tandem in the division, which will help with DE Will Smith serving a suspension for using Bumetanide in 2008, and 2010 No. 1 pick CB Patrick Robinson shouldn’t be lost anymore. Explosive No. 1 pick DE Cameron Jordan was a steal. PK John Kasay to the rescue of Garrett Hartley (hip).
Drew’s Fantasy Tracker: Brees is behind just Aaron Rodgers and Michael Vick in our fantasy book. Too many options to make WRs valuable, but target Graham late. Muddled backfield makes for fantasy nightmare.
2. ATLANTA FALCONS
Coach: Mike Smith
2011 projection: 10-6
2010 record: 13-3
Over/under wins: 10 1/2
Odds to win Super Bowl: 16-1
Serby Says: There is Life After Michael Vick indeed. Head coach Mike Smith and GM Thomas Dimitroff mortgaged a significant part of the future with a bold trade (to the Browns) to move up in the draft for WR Julio Jones, an electric complement to Roddy White that they believe is the last piece to the Super Bowl puzzle.
Matt Ryan, a.k.a. Matty Ice, is now better equipped to duel Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers in any NFC shootout, especially if WR Harry Douglas emerges and TE Tony Gonzalez can squeeze one more effective year out of his 35-year-old body. Michael Turner can do the rest, although with 888 carries over the past three seasons, his 29-year-old legs (and groin, which required offseason surgery) may need to be spelled by Jason Snelling a little more often. RG Harvey Dahl was wooed away by the Rams, but re-signing RT Tyson Clabo and LG Justin Blalock were critical.
DE Ray Edwards is a pass-rushing bookend for 33-year-old John Abraham, and CBs Dunta Robinson and mini-me Brent Grimes need to upgrade a unit that was 22nd against the pass in 2010 and plays seven games against teams ranked in the top 12 in passing a year ago.
The draft has flooded the defense with young playmakers such as MLB Curtis Lofton, OLB Sean Weatherspoon, S Wlliam Moore and S Thomas DeCoud. “No one’s going to come out and run the ball against us,” Lofton vowed.
Kick returner Eric Weems may be good enough to overcome the new kickoff rules and provide advantageous field position for Matty Ice.
Drew’s Fantasy Tracker: Ryan will have his best season. White is a top-3 WR. Turner will look more like 2009 edition than 2010. Rookie Jones will contribute later in season.
3. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Coach: Raheem Morris
2011 projection: 8-8
2010 record: 10-6
Over/under wins: 8
Odds to win Super Bowl: 45-1
Serby Says: Raheem Morris likes to refer to his team as youngry.
Josh Freeman, who very well could have been a Jet were it not for the Mark Sanchez trade, is at his best in the fourth quarter. Now that he has a year together with studly WR Mike Willlams (11 TDs) and 245-pound power back LaGarrette Blount, the 6-foot-6 Freeman (25 TDs, 6 INTs in 2010) needs to put an end to the slow starts (43 first-quarter points last season). He has a pair of big targets in second-year wideout Arrelious Benn, who has been slowed by injuries, and TE Kellen Winslow Jr. There is depth on the offensive line now with RT Jeremy Trueblood taking back the right tackle job.
The defense, 28th against the run a year ago and devoid of a threatening pass rush, is stocked with high picks from the last two drafts — DT Gerald McCoy, DT Brian Price, DE Adrian Clayborn and steal DE Da’Quan Bowers. Then there is a gentleman named Frank Okam, a biscuit shy of 370 pounds. Rookie MLB Mason Foster better grow up fast replacing Barrett Ruud. Ronde Barber, the Barber who isn¹t booed at MetLife Stadium, is a 36-year-old corner in a pass-happy division. Problem child Aqib Talib can present the same problems for big receivers as Antonio Cromartie, but he better not antagonize NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell any more than he has to date.
New punter Michael Koenen was given a $19 million deal to leave Atlanta.
Morris, who shocked everyone (except his Rex Ryan-life swaggerlicious self) by steering the ship from 3-13 to 10-6, won’t be able to sneak up on anybody this time, youngry or not.
Drew’s Fantasy Tracker: We’re on Freeman’s bandwagon, and so is WR Williams. But the real breakout Buccaneer will be Blount.
4. CAROLINA PANTHERS
Coach: Ron Rivera
2011 projection: 4-12
2010 record: 2-14
Over/under wins: 4 1/2
Odds to win Super Bowl: 125-1
Serby Says: Owner Jerry Richardson would prefer that rookie franchise quarterback Cam Newton not sport any tattoos. Lucky he didn’t hire Rex Ryan, huh? Expect growing pans from rookie coach Ron Rivera, as well.
Kudos for old friend TE Jeremy Shockey for employing the Heimlich maneuver to dislodge a piece of pork tenderloin from TE Ben Hartsock¹s throat, but he won’t be able to prevent Newton from choking in his first rodeo. The return of RT Jeff Otah and RB DeAngelo Williams and trade for TE Greg Olsen wlll help him, but the chronic lack of a wide receiving option opposite Steve Smith has handicapped quarterbacks with far more experience. If RB Jonathan Stewart ever can stay on the field, he and Williams will be a support tandem for Newton running behind Otah, Jordan Gross, C Ryan Kalil and LG Travelle Wharton.
DE Charles Johnson parlayed his 11 1/2 sack 2010 into a six-year, $72 million contract ($32 million guaranteed) that broke Osi Umenyiora’s back, or knee. ILB Jon Beason and OLB James Anderson are studs. But CB Chris Gamble has looked like a liability this summer, and don¹t think Drew Brees, Matt Ryan and Josh Freeman haven¹t noticed. And a pair of rookies, Terrell McClain and Sione Fua, will have to contribute early at defensive tackle.
PK Olindo Mare replaces John Kasay.
Drew’s Fantasy Tracker: Williams will bounce back, providing quality RB2 numbers. Stewart is the best backup RB in league, so draft him to be a fantasy starter. Smith will do better than last year — weak WR3 or strong WR4.