Post columnist Steve Serby takes a look at the NFL and breaks down each team and every division as part of our 2011 NFL Preview:
AFC NORTH
1. BALTIMORE RAVENS
Coach: John Harbaugh
2011 projection: 11-5
2010 record: 12-4
Over/under wins: 10 1/2
Odds to win Super Bowl: 13-1
Serby Says: John Harbaugh doesn’t need Joe Flacco to be John Unitas, but offensive coordinator Cam Cameron, on the hot seat, better start trusting the big-armed quarterback more because you have to play to win when you are a Super-Bowl-Or-Bust team.
GM Ozzie Newsome completed a Hail Mary after losing out on WRs Malcom Floyd and Derrick Mason when he traded for deep threat Lee Evans, who will open everything up for the wondrous Ray Rice (and Ricky Williams off the bench) and make life easier on Anquan Boldin. The addition of thunderous blocking fullback Vonta Leach will add even more violence to the Steeler bloodbaths and compensate somewhat for TE Todd Heap taking his blocking talents to Arizona.
Another life-saver — if he can keep his weight under 400 pounds — is mountainous left tackle Bryant McKinnie, who won’t be starring in the next “Blind Side” movie but steps right in and moves Michael Oher to right tackle, where he belongs. McKinnie is promising an onslaught of pancakes, but given his recent history, that might excite IHOP executives more than Ravens fans.
Ray Lewis is a year older but hasn’t lost a step in the leadership department, and he still gets to roam behind Haloti Ngata, Terrell Suggs needs some help rushing the passer — loosey-goosey new defensive coordinator Chuck Pagano has promised to wreak havoc and had better do so if he plans on improving upon last season’s 27 sacks. The secondary might not be an Achilles’ heel if FS Ed Reed (8 INTs last year at age 32) stays strong and baggage-laden No. 1 pick CB Jimmy Smith — maybe he’ll be scared straight by Lewis — becomes the big press corner long missing.
Drew’s Fantasy Tracker: Rice is first-rounder. Boldin should be better, thanks to addition of fellow wideout Evans, who should improve on hisBuffalo numbers from last year.
2. PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Coach: Mike Tomlin
2011 projection: 10-6
2010 record: 12-4
Over/under wins: 10 1/2
Odds to win Super Bowl: 14-1
Serby Says: Great ownership . . . great front office . . . great coaching staff . . . great defense . . . great quarterback . . . great fans.
Mike Tomlin — a head coach everyone wants to play for — has proven to be as master at knowing how to quell controversy: Big Ben’s well-documented scandal and subsequent four-game suspension; James Harrison ripping into Commissioner Roger Goodell and even Roethlisberger.
Stability at the coordinator position (Bruce Arians on offense, Dick LeBeau on defense) only helps. Harrison’s back bears watching, as does his mouth, but LaMarr Woodley is a double-digit sack machine and ILB Lawrence Timmons appears destined for stardom alongside steady, old James Farrior. CB Ike Taylor returns with a healthy Troy Polamalu, but one quality corner isn’t enough against the likes of Aaron Rodgers (see Super Bowl XLV).
Big Ben, a newlywed, loves the big moments at the end of the fourth quarter, and especially whenever he escapes the pocket, you¹d better make sure Mike Wallace doesn’t burn you downfield. Hines Ward, after an offseason dancing and then drinking with the stars, is a year older but still the dirtiest player in the league if you ask the Ravens and Bengals, while Antonio Brown looks like a sleeper target. TE Heath Miller gets lost in the shuffle sometimes but don’t sleep on him in the red zone. RT Willie Colon, who missed last season, replaces Flozell Adams to help Rashard Mendenhall rumble for 1,200 yards or so.
Drew’s Fantasy Tracker: Roethlisberger is a good draft value in rounds 7-8. Wallace is overvalued in third round. We’re soft on Mendenhall in the first round, but like him in second round.
3. CLEVELAND BROWNS
Coach: Pat Shurmur
2011 projection: 6-10
2010 record: 5-11
Over/under wins: 6 1/2
Odds to win Super Bowl: 125-1
Serby Says: Eric Mangini might not be on ESPN these days if he had drafted Mark Sanchez instead of trading him to his ex-boss Mike Tannenbaum. Colt McCoy exhibited the leadership skills you want in a young quarterback, but he isn¹t exactly throwing to Paul Warfield. At least he’s better suited for the West Coast offense since he doesn’t have JaMarcus Russell’s arm, for all the good it did him and the Raiders.
Look for No. 2 pick Greg Little to emerge sooner rather than later as McCoy¹s Go-To-Guy, and TE Evan Moore is a red-zone threat. Bruising Peyton Hillis should be a 1,000-yard rusher again running behind thoroughbreds LT Joe Thomas and C Alex Mack, although rookie Jason Pinkston must replace LG Eric Steinbach (back, gone). With third-down back Brandon Jackson (toe) sidelined, Montario Hardesty needs to stay on the field so Hillis doesn’t wear down in December.
Defensive coordinator Dick Jauron is installing a new 4-3, with humongous rookie Phil Taylor filling departed Shaun Rogers’ fat shoes. They’re raving about MLB D’Qwell Jackson, who’ll have his hands full with Rashard Mendenhall and Ray Rice. Mike Holmgren was wise to draft CB Joe Haden over Kyle Wilson a year ago. Now let¹s see if undersized DE Marcus Benard can supply some much-needed pass rush. PK Phil Dawson is a poor man’s Lou (The Toe) Groza.
There is a modicum of good news: three of the first four games are in front of the Dawg Pound, and the Bengals are on the schedule twice.
Drew’s Fantasy Tracker: It’s all downhill for Hillis. Jackson isn’t your RB sleeper, it¹s Hardesty.
4. CINCINNATI BENGALS
Coach: Marvin Lewis
2011 projection: 4-12
2010 record: 4-12
Over/under wins: 5 1/2
Odds to win Super Bowl: 202-1
Serby Says: You would have thought Carson Palmer would have been thrilled that Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens were gone. Seems that Mike Brown is thrilled that Palmer is gone.
No. 1 pick A.J. Green and/or TE Jermaine Gresham might catch no fewer than 50 balls apiece from No. 2 pick Andy Dalton (and veteran Bruce Gradkowski) since most every game will require a comeback. It is critical that new offensive coordinator Jay Gruden develops Dalton, a red-haired Colt McCoy.
Defenses will gang up on RB Cedric Benson, who is a good candidate to go bonkers thanks in no small part to a pedestrian offensive line that can best be described as Andrew Whitworth & The Miracles.
DE Carlos Dunlap (9 1/2 sacks as a rookie) will give Coach-For-Life Marvin Lewis some pass rush, but run-stuffer MLB Rey Maualuga, who is more brawn than brains, is moving over from the outside and needs to gel with new OLBs Manny Lawson and Thomas Howard while former No. 1 pick Keith Rivers recovers from his wrist woes. Blocking DT Domata Peko is an all-day sucker. Defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer is head-coaching timber, but CB Johnathan Joseph (Texans) was a devastating loss, and 31-year-old Nate Clements is a dropoff. No wonder why they traded for CB Kelly Jennings and S Taylor Mays.
The schedule, at least, is forgiving — no games against the Steelers and Ravens until November, and games against the Broncos, 49ers, Bills,Jaguars, Seahawks and Titans over the first seven weeks. Who dey think gonna beat dem Bengals? Um, everybody.
Drew’s Fantasy Tracker: Nothing to see here — including overvalued Benson and rookie Green. Please move along.