While conferences around the country strengthen themselves via alignment, the Big East is left to take superficial action that looks good on paper but has no teeth.
As reported last week in The Post, the Big East announced yesterday that it was doubling the exit fee for its FBS members from $5 to $10 million. But that fee kicks in only once a new member is added.
Until the league extends an invitation, which it won’t do unless certain the recipient will accept, the fee stays at $5 million. And even if a Boise State, for example, accepts, which neither will do unless it knows the league is firm, the Big East remains frighteningly vulnerable to the Big 12’s probably expansion plans, The Post has learned.
Two sources with direct knowledge of where the Big East stands, said that even if the league’s expansion plan of bring in Air Force, Boise, Central Florida, Navy, Houston and SMU is executed, both Louisville and West Virginia still would leave for a spot in the Big 12.
The Big East is down to six FBS members. Losing even one more could spell a doomsday scenario that commissioner John Marinatto, speaking on a telephone conference call yesterday, addressed.
“We have not have had any of those kinds of discussions within the ranks of our member schools,” he said. “It’s never come up. I think we have a solid nucleus and I think we have a plan that people are excited about.”
“We’re positioned well and if something happens and we have to adjust, we’ll adjust accordingly,” he added. “We’ve got the core nucleus to create something very special now.”
According to a published report, Missouri, a member of the Big 12, will leave to join the SEC. That will leave the Big 12 with nine teams. The league is debating whether to go with a 10- or 12-team membership.
BYU, Louisville and West Virginia, in that order, are on the Big 12’s radar. BYU has had conversations with the Big 12.
If the league goes to 12, BYU Louisville and West Virginia would all get invites. The Big East would then turn to Temple and hope Army can be convinced to join its football brethren. Most likely the Big East football conference will break and the league will go back to its basketball roots.
“We didn’t start this conference realignment situation,” Marinatto said. “I also think there’s a right to expand when it’s necessary and that’s the situation we’re in.”
The situation grows more dire by the day. Though the $10 million exit penalty fee is substantial, it would not deter any program from leaving. The potential for receiving significantly more television revenue by joining another conference dwarfs the penalty fee.
“I don’t think there’s a magic number that really would prevent a school from leaving,” said Marinatto. “You want a school to recognize the value of your league. You don’t want people to be motivated by a penalty.”
The best motivation other schools have for joining the Big East is the league’s AQ status in the lucrative BCS format. The league champion gets an automatic berth in one of the major bowl games, another significant revenue stream.
Air Force and Boise State compete in the Mountain West, which does not have AQ status. UCF, Houston and SMU, the three Conference USA schools targeting but the Big East, also does not have AQ status. Navy, which sources said had an agreement in principle to join the Big East just before Pittsburgh and Syracuse bolted for the ACC, is an independent that does not have AQ status.
Asked what is different about the Big East’s possible expansion and the one recently undertaken by the ACC, Marinatto took a swipe at that league and his two former members.
“I don’t think anybody will be blindsided or feel bushwhacked when this process is complete,” he said.