Chargers (+9 ½) over Broncos, over 54 ½: We take a back seat to no man in our sustained admiration for Peyton Manning’s regular-season statistical accomplishments (606 regular-season points, 55 touchdown passes) in The League. The late-season romps against the Texans and Raiders dressed those windows.
Who needs an offensive coordinator, with this guy under center? His knowledge of the realities of game pacing and percentages is unrivaled. As poker players say, Manning enjoys “command of the table” to an unparalleled degree.
Manning’s presence under center gives any franchise a substantial leg up … but to make the most of it, this month and next, a reliable defense is helpful, and against good teams (and the Chargers fit that description), obtaining a workable number of offensive possessions is critical.
Yes, even under Norv Turner, the Chargers posed sustained problems for Manning, especially when catching these kind of points. Turner’s defensive coordinator, John Pagano, did some good work this season containing No. 18 in the previous two meetings — which were split — and first-year Chargers coach Mike McCoy was pried from the Broncos’ staff after serving as their offensive coordinator.
With their serious institutional knowledge working, this underdog can be expected to use the run to set up Philip Rivers’ passing. Denver’s regular-season defensive stats against the run were superficially good because so many lesser teams were forced to pass in the face of deficits.
San Diego led the league during this regular season with an average of 33:35 minutes in time of possession — and with a third-down conversion percentage of better than 49 percent. The Broncos were able to overcome the injury to key defensive end operative Von Miller against league turkeys, but over the course of the season, they allowed 48 to Tony Romo and the Cowboys, 39 to Andrew Luck and the Colts, and 34 to Tom Brady and the Patriots.
The Chargers won’t be able to play keep-away indefinitely, but San Diego has an underrated weapon in Mike Scifres, whose booming punts buried the Bengals in one deep hole after another. Scifres can be expected to revel in the thinner Denver air.
Yes, the Broncos are on a crusade, but every “live” franchise is on a crusade. Even if Denver came up with some kind of new formula to slow the Chargers, they don’t have the defensive people to make it stick, even at Mile High. And here we go again with Peyton, who’s facing enormous expectations, with the whole world watching.
The Bolts aren’t cowed by these guys. Be not afraid. Lopsided-passing teams remain unlikely to win Super Bowls, even now. And of all franchises, the Chargers surely are aware of that.
Chargers 31, Broncos 27.
49ers (pick) over Panthers, under 42: It’s understandable, given 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh was the quarterback of what were Bo Schembechler’s most highly-ranked Michigan teams — but it still is a little disconcerting to observe just how much pure Michigan is embedded in Harbaugh’s prevailing offense at San Francisco. This season, quarterback Devon Gardner’s most consistent, reliable offensive weapon at Ann Arbor were his legs, and Colin Kaepernick’s dazzling rushing ability (his seven rushes at Lambeau last week went for 98 yards, and made an enormous difference in the 23-20 win over the Packers) makes his impressive key trio of receivers (Michael Crabtree, Anquan Boldin and Vernon Davis) even more effective/dangerous.
The ground game still matters. Early this season, “Riverboat” Ron Rivera transformed his Panthers’ entire group psyche once he learned to love the idea of going for it on fourth-and-short, and it followed that they were able to (a) break open close games, and (b) beat strong teams, including these Niners.
But the Panthers have a history of not being quite so effective against 3-4 defenses (the Niners’ style), and even with their clear improvement, the Panthers need Cam Newton to rush effectively, too, and that could wind up as the crux of today’s meeting.
On the bright side for the Panthers, it’s presumed running back Jonathan Stewart will be good to go. Wideout Steve Smith has been publicly cautious about the efficiency of his recovery from his sprained right knee, incurred three weeks ago. Expect he will play, but 100-percent efficiency is doubtful, and Panthers aren’t the same team without him firing on all cylinders.
Bucking home teams that aren’t clear-cut favorites in the divisional round has been a hard row to hoe, but expect the Niners to find a way, and for ultra-conservative “Little Bo” Harbaugh — and the defenses — to maintain scoring at a modest level.
49ers 20, Panthers 17.