BOSTON — Tim Lincecum, over the past two seasons, is 20-29 with a 4.76 ERA. That is the fourth-worst ERA in the majors for any pitcher with at least 300 innings between 2012-13.
The guy just ahead of him on that don’t-want-to-be-on-it list was Barry Zito (4.82) and the Giants were thankful his seven-year, $126 monstrosity was finally over — even if he helped them win the 2012 World Series. Yet, they instantly got into another dubious deal Tuesday, a two-year, $35 million pact with Lincecum.
The $17.5 million per-year average is the 15th-highest ever for a pitcher. The 14th belongs to Zito ($18 million).
Yet, San Francisco assistant general manager Bobby Evans, when reached yesterday by phone, offered a reasoned argument for doing this deal:
1. The Giants were going to place the qualifying offer ($14.1 million) on Lincecum to assure if he left, they would receive draft-pick compensation. If he stayed, that would be his 2014 salary. If they then offered the tender next year and it had about the same increase ($800,000) that it had between 2012-13, then the Giants could, through this process, have Lincecum for two years at $29 million — not incredibly far off the two-year deal the sides actually reached.
2. Lincecum was going to reject the tender. At that point, there would be open bidding and the Giants had received enough inquiries in the late-July trade market to believe several teams would pursue him — and pursuit in free agency usually means rising prices. It was possible the Mets could have been among his suitors; perhaps even the Yankees if they were shut out on convincing Hiroki Kuroda to come back or failed to win the post for Masahiro Tanaka.
3. The Giants wanted to retain Lincecum. Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner are their only two sure-thing rotation members next year, and San Francisco did not want to have to find three starters in this market rather than two (as an aside, expect the Giants to be among those pursuing Tanaka).
4. The Giants drafted, developed and like Lincecum. The Freak is a fan favorite. He is a key to two championships. He has won two Cy Young Awards.
5. Even pitching poorly the past two years, Lincecum went to the bullpen during the 2012 postseason and was a vital weapon, plus he threw a no-hitter this year and struck out about the same average per nine innings (8.79) as likely Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw (8.85).
Kershaw and Adam Wainwright (each with 66 starts) were the only NL pitchers to start more often than Lincecum (65) the past two years, offsetting some of the worries his Freakish delivery would cause injury. In 2013 Lincecum had a 4.37 ERA and the Giants feel it was inflated because 12 of his inherited runners scored (the second-highest total in the majors). You may remember, for example, he left his next-to-last start, Sept. 20 at Yankee Stadium, with the bases loaded and two outs, and the score 1-1. Reliever George Kontos was greeted by an Alex Rodriguez grand slam.
6. Lincecum’s fastball has dropped 2 mph on average the past two years (from 92 to 90). But, Evans said, Lincecum came to peace he has to keep throwing it and just spot it better to make his off-speed repertoire work. The Giants’ feeling was Lincecum came to camp in better shape this year and executed better pitch-to-pitch than in the disastrous 2012 regular season (5.18 ERA). There is still work to be done, Evans explained, notably getting Lincecum to pitch down in the zone more because when the righty is up he gets beat up badly. Though the Giants do not think a Cy is returning soon, they do feel Lincecum is evolving and — in Evans’ words — “has upside and we are not sure there are many guys in this free-agent market you could say that about.”
7. Put all of this together and San Francisco believed on the open market, Lincecum would have had suitors at a significant salary and — just as vital — it might have had to pay more to find his replacement. Lincecum was willing to do a short-term deal to try to reestablish his value — he is just 29 — and go back into the market soon to try to chase the mega-deal. Since the risk was only two years and the Giants accepted they had to pay a premium to keep him from getting onto the free-agent market when the World Series ends, they were willing to try to find common ground. They figured it needed to be more than the two years at $29 million that would come via the tenders and less than the two-year, $40 million deal he was just concluding. Thus, they came to two years at $35 million.
“Obviously, for us, the perfect numbers is always lower,” Evans said. “At the same time, getting him off the market and keeping him a Giant on a short-term deal was very attractive.”
Mattingly staying in L.A.
Don Mattingly will return as manager of the Dodgers next year, two sources confirmed, despite a lingering tension that erupted in an uncomfortable press conference involving Mattingly and general manager Ned Colletti on Monday.
Mattingly had a $1.4 million option that vested automatically when the Dodgers won the NL Division Series against Atlanta. But at the press conference, Mattingly said the contract vesting did not guarantee he would return. With Colletti sitting a few feet away, Mattingly admitted annoyance he was left as a lame duck all year.
Mattingly hinted he would not return with the same status. But he apparently has softened his stance — perhaps recognizing he is not guaranteed a job anywhere else — and a person familiar with the situation said the sides have agreed he will be back and are now “negotiating” with the possibility of extending the contract beyond just 2014.
The former Yankees great guided the Dodgers to the NL West title after they began the season a troubling 30-42. He continues to draw criticism for in-game strategy, but received high grades for handling a slew of big egos on the $230 million win-or-bust Dodgers of 2013.
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Joe Nathan with 341 saves is now the active leader with Mariano Rivera’s retirement. He also has an interesting decision upcoming. Texas holds a $9 million 2014 option on Nathan it has until three days after the World Series to pick up. But by reaching a games-finished trigger, Nathan gained a 48-hour window to void the option if it is picked up and become a free agent.
The expectation is Nathan will indeed jump into free agency, although he turns 39 in November and — in general — teams are rejecting large salaries for closers. He had a terrific season (43 saves, 1.39 ERA) and there probably is a two-year deal out there for him from a contender such as the Tigers, whose bullpen ills undermined them in the ALCS.