Barring multiple Hail Marys, a 100-and something-yard field goal return and an untimely criminal charge to its quarterback, Florida State’s place in the BCS title game should be safe.
The Seminoles’ opponent — to be determined Saturday — easily could be a team no one is talking about.
Lost in the aftermath of Auburn’s miracle win over Alabama and the resulting debate over whether it should vault past Ohio State as the No. 2 team in the nation is fifth-ranked Missouri, lurking as the subplot no one is paying attention to.
It’s easy to understand. The Tigers still seem like outsiders in their new conference (SEC), they rarely succeed on the big stage and they have no Heisman candidates bringing attention to their team. And though their coach, Gary Pinkelendall, is in his 13th season, you couldn’t pick him out of a two-person lineup.
(Missouri’s coach is actually named Gary Pinkel, but I’ll bet you kept on reading and didn’t break stride).
They may not be USC, Notre Dame, Michigan, Texas or any other big-time program with national appeal, but after going 5-7 last season, the Tigers are only one Buckeyes loss against Michigan State and the fourth-ranked scoring defense in the nation from controlling their ability to reach the BCS title game.
Missouri’s one loss this season came without its starting quarterback in double overtime against No. 8 South Carolina. But James Franklin is back and Missouri’s defense looks as dangerous as ever, limiting Johnny Manziel and Texas A&M to nearly 23 points below its season-average last week.
In this surprising SEC Championship game matchup, Auburn’s luck will finally run out.
Take Mizzou (+2).
CINCINNATI (+3½) over Louisville: Welcome to another three hours when Teddy Bridgewater fails to show why he’s seen as a sure thing at the next level.
N. Illinois (-4) over Bowling Green: Huskies quarterback Jordan Lynch will be in New York soon enough, coming off another Heisman-worthy performance in the MAC Championship. Lynch, who has 2,457 yards passing with 22 touchdowns, 1,755 yards rushing and 42 total touchdowns, will keep his team undefeated and send it to a BCS bowl. Unfortunately, the senior will never get a shot at the four-team playoff.
OKLAHOMA STATE (-9½) over Oklahoma: The Sooners have owned the Bedlam series, but the Cowboys own the Big 12 this season. After locking up the conference championship, Oklahoma State will be haunted by the memories of the West Virginia loss even more.
Ucf (-11½) over SMU: Mustangs quarterback Garrett Gilbert’s availability will have an impact on the game, but it doesn’t impact the pick. His presence would merely make the loss convincing instead of embarrassing.
Marshall (-4½) over RICE: Even with the game being played in Houston, the Thundering Herd will continue their offensive onslaught, which has resulted in an average of 53 points over their past six games, including last week’s 31-point win over second-place East Carolina.
UCONN (Pk) over Memphis: If Auburn can win back-to-back games in unprecedented ways, then anything can happen — even the Huskies winning three games in a row.
BAYLOR (-15) over Texas: After looking nothing like they’ve looked all season in their past two games, the Bears return home, where they’ve won their six games by an average of more than 51 points.
RUTGERS (-6) over South Florida: The Scarlet Knights’ second-half slide will finally stop, making them bowl eligible. Imagine, with a win, Rutgers could be in the BBVA Compass Bowl (formerly the PapaJohns.com Bowl). Look out, Big Ten! The Scarlet Knights are coming!
ARIZONA STATE (-3) over Stanford: These teams are in very different places than when the Cardinal won its Sept. 21 meeting. And so is the game, which will be played in Tempe, Ariz. Stanford’s two losses this season have come on the road.
Florida State (-29) over Duke: Have you been dared? Double-dared? No? Then, there’s no reason to go against the Seminoles.
Michigan State (+5½) over Ohio State: The Buckeyes may win, but they won’t do anything to quiet the critics who think the SEC champion should supplant them in the national title game.
Utah State (+3½) over FRESNO STATE: Derek Carr will produce, but will also show flashes of his big brother against a tough defense, likely to hold the Bulldogs to a season-low in points.
BEST BETS: Cincinnati, Oklahoma State, Arizona State
Record: 72-89-4
Best Bets: 11-21-1