Several months back, I wondered in these pages why NBC would replace Jay Leno when his “Tonight Show” continued to perform strongly.
And after perusing second quarter numbers for Leno’s “Tonight Show” and for “Late Night” — hosted by Leno’s ultimate successor, Jimmy Fallon — I’m still wondering.
Numbers don’t lie, and what we’re seeing for Leno and “Tonight” is a ratings renaissance of sorts. It’s taken Leno a while to get his mojo back after returning to the 11:35 p.m. timeslot in March 2010 following Conan O’Brien’s seven-month debacle. Now, three years later, while “Tonight” isn’t back to its pre-Conan numbers, it’s darn close — and getting closer.
For the second quarter, “Tonight” averaged 3.6 million viewers — its biggest audience in five quarters, easily beating David Letterman’s “Late Show” on CBS (2.8 million viewers) and ABC’s “Jimmy Kimmel Live,” which joined the 11:35 p.m. club in January (and averaged 2.3 million viewers in the second quarter).
And if you’re wondering what “Tonight” did in the . . . all together now . . . “advertiser-coveted” demo of adults 18-49 — NBC’s raison d’etre for moving the much-younger Fallon (he’s 38 to Leno’s 63) to 11:35 — here you go: “Tonight” topped “Late Show” by a whopping 39 percent in that demo and also beat “JKL” by a comfortable 22 percent in adults 18-49.
Oh, and by the way, Jimmy Kimmel is also 18 years younger than Leno — so put that in your ratings pipe and smoke it (which, I believe, is legal).
I realize, as someone who covers the TV beat on a daily basis, how much emphasis the networks put on “younger” viewers. And, to his credit, Fallon has performed well, both among young viewers and total viewers.
For the second quarter, Fallon’s “Late Night” beat its timeslot competitors — Craig Ferguson’s “Late Late Show” on CBS and ABC’s “Nightline” — in adults 18-49 and in total viewers. So it’s easy to see why NBC is licking its chops by envisioning what Fallon could do an hour earlier at 11:35.
But, really, if Leno continues to grow his numbers across-the-board, you’ve got to wonder if NBC would have any buyer’s remorse once Fallon replaces Leno next February during the Winter Olympics — and those (huge) Olympics ratings begin to waver once the games conclude.
After all, the network has been through this once before, and the results were not good (O’Brien lost over 1 million viewers from Leno’s average during his “Tonight” tenure).
I’m just sayin’.