FRONTCOURT
The Spartans have managed to lead the nation in rebounding margin despite not having a healthy Raymar Morgan (pneumonia) for most of the season. He can be the X-factor in this game. Goran Suton can pull Hasheem Thabeet away from the basket. Delvon Roe brings a lunch box. But Jeff Adrien brings a hard hat. And Stanley Robinson is making UConn fans miss Jerome Dyson a little less with each game. Huskies are third in rebound margin and first in blocked shots. EDGE: UCONN
BACKCOURT
If Kalin Lucas was playing in the Big East, he would have received much more national pub. He’s a much more talented Mateen Cleaves. Travis Walton is a terrific passer and a lock-down defender. Coach Jim Calhoun is mentioning A.J. Price with former UConn greats. If hot, he can break open a game. Craig Austrie will knock down the open 3. EDGE: EVEN
BENCH
One of the benefits of Morgan’s health concerns was that Michigan State developed a solid bench. Draymond Green, Durrell Summers and Chris Allen give Tom Izzo about 16 points and nine boards per game. Here’s one of the subtle areas where Dyson’s injury comes into play. No player can affect the game off the bench more than former Rice star Kemba Walker, and Gavin Edwards spells Thabeet and Adrien, but that’s the end of the bench. EDGE: MICHIGAN STATE
INTANGIBLES
Talk about playing with house money. No one expected the Spartans to get to Detroit. Not only are they headed to Motown, but they have a built-in home-court advantage. The Huskies have rallied since a 5-3 stretch after the Dyson injury and have not shown any signs of blinking in the face of possible NCAA violations. As for Dyson, this is the kind of game in which he could be missed. He brings a knife to a gunfight and wins. Michigan State makes you fight for every inch. EDGE: EVEN
COACHING
Talk about splitting hairs. Izzo has won one national title, gone to five Final Fours and has a 30-10 record in NCAA Tournament play. Calhoun has won two national titles and is tied with former Indiana great Branch McCracken for the best winning percentage (1.000, 4-0) in Final Four play. Here’s what impresses us about Izzo: He hasn’t had nearly the talent that Calhoun has. Remember, Calhoun has assistant George Blaney, one of the best basketball minds in the game. EDGE: EVEN
PREDICTION
UConn has the talent edge without question, but the Spartans will play their smashmouth brand. The key is if the Huskies can keep Thabeet on the court.
FRONTCOURT
The Wildcats start three seniors — Dante Cunningham, Dwayne Anderson and Shane Clark — and they all have risen to the occasion in the tournament. Clark, the least skilled of the three, hit 12 3-pointers all season. He was 3-of-4 in the win over Pitt. The Tar Heels are led by four-time All-ACC first-teamer Tyler Hansbrough. North Babylon’s Danny Green withdrew from last year’s NBA Draft to improve in all aspects of his game. Double Hansbrough and Deon Thompson will kill you quietly. EDGE: UNC
BACKCOURT
Despite his pull-up jumper that gave ‘Nova the win, Scottie Reynolds has not shot the ball well. Reggie Redding is a glue guy. Ty Lawson is the best point guard in America at running the break, even on nine toes. Wayne Ellington chose the Tar Heels over Villanova. Ouch. EDGE: UNC
BENCH
Corey Fisher, Corey Stokes and Antonio Pena actually make ‘Nova a better team. Stokes is one of the best shooters in college basketball. Fisher can change the pace, but he’d be wise not to try to prove himself against Lawson. Ed Davis is a future star and the Tar Heels’ best player off the bench. Bobby Frasor is solid but a huge drop off from Lawson. Ty Zeller spells Hansbrough. EDGE: ‘NOVA
INTANGIBLES
‘Nova is playing with a vengeance that was evident in its crushing of blue bloods Duke and UCLA. The Wildcats’ man defense is as good as it gets. But the Final Four is new terrain. North Carolina was here last year. The Tar Heels have lost four games by a total of 16 points. As long as Lawson’s toe is good to go, only UConn seems capable of matching up with the Heels. EDGE: UNC
COACHING
It’s clear Jay Wright has established himself as the Big East coach who will take the torch from Jim Boeheim, Jim Calhoun and Rick Pitino. He gets his players to compete with a remarkable fierceness. But this is his first Final Four and nothing substitutes for experience. Roy Williams has won a national-title game, lost a title game and cried more than Mark Messier. EDGE: UNC
PREDICTION
Villanova won’t be intimidated, but every time the Wildcats take a quick shot and miss, as they’re prone to do, North Carolina will strike.
UCONN 74, MICHIGAN STATE 71
UNC 85, VILLANOVA 73