IT FEELS right that the NCAA season ends and the American League schedule begins on the same day. That allows a natural transition of one campaign dominated by the Big East to another.
The Rays and Red Sox played for the AL title last year, and the Yankees responded by spending nearly a half a billion dollars on free agency this offseason. The consensus is that the majors’ three best teams reside in the AL East. Which should make the divisional competition this year, well, a beast.
“Those three teams win every division in baseball, but two won’t win their own division,” an AL executive said.
Tampa, Boston and New York are all fully capable of 95-plus wins, and it is hard to see another team in the league that you can say that about. So what does that mean for the season? Well, the obvious is that only two, at most, from the AL East can make the playoffs, so at least one darn good team is going to be October onlookers. It also means those three teams could be pretty darn active between now and the trade deadline trying to find the missing pieces to separate themselves in the Big East:
EAST
1. RED SOX
Superb pitching depth and the potential of having John Smoltz from June 1 on just makes the staff potential that much greater. They know they probably will have to add a bat along the way, especially if David Ortiz and/or Mike Lowell do not rebound from injuries that slowed them in 2008. But Boston has a deep system, deep pockets and a resourceful front office.
2. RAYS
The majors’ best defense plus an offense that will have a full season of Evan Longoria and the potential breakout of B.J. Upton. David Price is lurking in the wings to upgrade the pitching, and despite just a $60 million payroll, Tampa might have the best bench in the division. And this is another team with a deep system and a creative front office.
3. YANKEES
Obviously the rotation is better. But the defense is ordinary at best with Derek Jeter’s shortstop play a big issue. There are many age/injury concerns and they already start the season with Alex Rodriguez out. He is potentially damaged goods when he returns and potentially damaging to the psyche of the team (remember Selena Roberts’ book about him is due out this month). Will they get enough production from their outfield (if not the offense is good, not great). How about their set-up core? Can Joe Girardi hold this team together in crisis? There is enough talent here to win 100-plus, and enough dysfunction to fall to third.
4. ORIOLES
The rotation is dreadful — at least until the second half when youngsters such as Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta and Brian Matusz might be on the horizon. Young Matt Wieters is another building-block piece to join Nick Markakis and Adam Jones. Heading in the right direction, but the Red Sox/Rays/Yankees are like climbing the Everest of baseball.
5. BLUE JAYS
The big question in Toronto this season will be does the Jays’ attendance and won-lost record plummet so much that they feel compelled to make the big rebuild move and trade ace Roy Halladay in July?
CENTRAL
1. TWINS
In a toss-up division, take the team that always seems to win more games than you expect. Obviously, Minnesota cannot get very far if star catcher Joe Mauer does not overcome his back ailment. But the rotation is young and impressive, with pinpoint Kevin Slowey about to become a breakout star.
2. INDIANS
Fausto Carmona went from a 19-game winner to an eight-game winner while Cliff Lee went from a five-game winner to a 22-game winner and the Cy Young. Who are they really? If they are legitimate 1-2 starters, then Cleveland probably wins this division because their offense should be good (really good if DH Travis Hafner bounces back). But the No. 3 starter is Carl Pavano, so you see why Carmona and Lee are so vital for the Indians.
3. WHITE SOX
They have tried to go younger and more athletic. That potentially frees up some mid-season dough to address a problem or two, especially the absence of a suitable center fielder. Can either Jose Contreras and/or Bartolo Colon help the rotation?
4. ROYALS
There is a bit of optimism in Kansas City as the Royals added Coco Crisp, Mike Jacobs, Kyle Farnsworth and Juan Cruz to the roster. Zack Greinke is an ace. To graduate from the bottom of the division, they almost certainly need Alex Gordon to begin playing like a star.
5. TIGERS
There is a lot of talent here, but also a lot of financial waste (the waived Gary Sheffield, the frazzled Dontrelle Willis, Nate Robertson) and too many mismatched parts. No team in the majors needs a hot start more to quell the angst around the organization and keep a depressed city interested, and also to prevent a quick fire sale of those large salaries.
WEST
1. ANGELS
They may win the division by default because none of the other teams is truly ready to win the West. They begin with three rotation pieces (John Lackey, Ervin Santana and Kelvim Escobar) on the DL. On offense, they need some young players with promise — notably Howie Kendrick, Kendry Morales and Brandon Wood — to break out.
2. RANGERS
They need veterans Kevin Millwood and Vicente Padilla to be better than respectable to hold the rotation together until some of their bevy of talented youngsters arrives. A healthy Josh Hamilton could win the MVP.
3. A’S
They addressed the meager offense in the offseason with Matt Holliday, Jason Giambi, Orlando Cabrera and Nomar Garciaparra. But they are going almost exclusively with an inexperienced rotation and while some of the kids are quite talented (Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson, particularly), it is too much to ask so many so young to do so much.
4. MARINERS
They probably are not the mess they were last year, but they still lack depth in the rotation and batting order.