If the Mets are really serious about landing Jason Bay, the feeling among baseball executives is they probably are going to have to add a fifth year to their four-year, $63 million offer.
Another year — at close to $20 million — could be enough to make the 31-year-old Bay jump back to the NL from Boston.
That’s because the Red Sox’s standing offer to Bay since the All-Star break, which Bay turned down, virtually is the same in terms of years and total dollars — four years, $60 million — as the Mets’ deal.
A team source said yesterday that the Mets’ offer to Bay is heavily backloaded, with roughly $10 million committed in the first year before the deal balloons to around $20 million in the final season.
That has been common practice for the Mets under GM Omar Minaya when it comes to veteran free agents. Carlos Beltran, for example, will make $18.5 million in each of the final four years of his seven-year deal after starting out at $10 million.
The ball is in Bay’s court now that the Mets have awakened from their offseason slumber to make offers to him and veteran catcher Bengie Molina while keeping an eye on John Lackey and secondtier starters Joel Pineiro and Jason Marquis.
Skepticism remains high, especially in Boston, that the Mets are serious contenders to land Bay if the two offers stay roughly the same and the Red Sox ultimately decide against pursuing Matt Holliday, considered the premier free-agent left fielder in this year’s market.
A fifth year from the Mets could be the deciding factor, though, because the Red Sox reportedly are adamant about not going to five years in their offer to Bay.
Boston’s steadfastness is due in part to a historical aversion to long-term deals for older players (see: Johnny Damon), but mostly because the Red Sox remain interested in Holliday, the premier freeagent left fielder in this year’s market.
The Mets’ thinking is that Holliday is not only too expensive — he is expected to command up to $100 million — but also a poor fit offensively at cavernous Citi Field.
The Mets’ statistical analysis, confirmed by a team source, shows the right-hand swinging Bay’s dead-pull style is better suited to left field at Citi.
Holliday is more of a gap hitter, and the gaps at the Mets’ new home are considered particularly deadly.
The Mets also are awaiting Molina’s response to their Thursday contract offer, which is believed to be two years for about $12 million. A league source said yesterday that the Mets’ offer includes a vesting option for a third year. The Mets initially were reluctant to offer Molina more than one year, but felt the need to up the offer because two years has been the minimum going rate for veteran catchers this winter.
The Mets likely are to tender contract offers to most of their eight arbitration- eligible players by tonight’s midnight deadline. The likeliest candidates to be non-tendered are right-hander Tim Redding and backup outfielder Jeremy Reed.
Two other arbitration- eligible Mets, lefty reliever Pedro Feliciano and right fielder Jeff Francoeur, definitely will be tendered and are in line for possible contract extensions this winter.
Speculation during the season was that the Mets might not tender oft-injured righty John Maine, but he is expected to get an offer.
* Right-hander Elmer Dessens agreed to a minor league contract yesterday to stay with the Mets. Dessens, who turns 39 next month, would get a split contract if added to the 40-man roster that would pay $700,000 in the majors and $90,000 in the minors.