PORT ST. LUCIE — Perfect. How many times, of late, has it worked that way for the Mets? Jerry Manuel moves Jose Reyes into the No. 3 slot and the first time he bats yesterday in the Mets’ lone intrasquad game of spring he has two on, none out.
Then on the first pitch from Tobi Stoner — the first pitch Reyes has seen in game action since May 20 — he rifles a liner into the right-field corner. Even holding back a little, Reyes easily breezes into third standing up.
In this wonderful snapshot for the Mets, Reyes reacting to an RBI slot with a two-run triple while showing his surgically repaired right hamstring is fine.
Perfect, right? Except I see imperfection, and I am not alone. Eight front-office officials responded when asked where they would bat Reyes: Seven said leadoff, none said third and one was non-committal, stating that unless there are egregious mistakes, batting orders are mostly inconsequential.
Jeff Francoeur, a teammate now, but long a Reyes adversary with the Braves, said: “Jerry is going to set the lineup the way he thinks works best. I just know playing against him he was a pain in the [bleep] hitting leadoff.”
Manuel believes with time Reyes will be an equal threat hitting third. But is this the right time?
The shift is a reaction to Carlos Beltran’s knee surgery, which will cost him at least a month of the season. Without Beltran to hit third, Manuel fears the lineup lacks length if he simply has David Wright bat third and Jason Bay fourth. The order would dip precipitously at No. 5, likely with Daniel Murphy. In addition, Manuel wants to preserve Reyes’ legs and feels batting him third will translate to fewer steal attempts to limit the risk of having runners thrown out in front of your best RBI men, Wright and Bay.
But I disagree with those theories and the general concept of Reyes hitting third. Here are the reasons why:
* A lengthy lineup is nice, but it’s vital to make sure your best hitters bat most frequently. It is fine to drop Reyes, Wright and Bay to let superior hitters bat more often. Angel Pagan, the likely new leadoff man, is not in that class. Each lineup spot roughly has 18 more plate appearances over the course of a season than the next one.
So if Reyes is hitting third, he would come up 36 fewer times, on average, than a leadoff spot likely to feature Pagan or Gary Matthews Jr., who should be hitting seventh even in a Beltran-free order. In Manuel’s configuration, Pagan and Matthews would bat about 72 more times combined over the course of the season at leadoff than Bay in the fifth spot, or about three times more per week.
* Reyes’ legs are either healthy or not. If they are unhealthy, the Mets really should learn from last year and get him off the field. And if they are healthy, then base stealing must be key. If Manuel wants Reyes running less frequently, he should order him not to run in frivolous situations. But if Manuel has Reyes run less often in tight games as a third-place hitter, scouts will notice and Wright and Bay won’t see as many fastballs as normally are warranted to try to slow Reyes’ running game.
* The team that scored first won 66.4 percent of games last year. Reyes’ chances of helping the Mets score a first-inning run would seem greater batting with the guarantee of no outs and a blank canvas than in the third hole. Luis Castillo’s best asset is patience in the No. 2 hole, which gives Reyes a chance to be an on-base distraction.
* “I will do whatever Jerry wants me to do” when it comes to hitting third, Reyes said. But that feels like Reyes trying to say the right things rather than being a proponent of this move. If he wanted to hit third, Reyes would say something like, “I am excited about it” rather than putting it on Manuel. The Mets already are working on making sure Reyes’ body is right. They shouldn’t mess with his mind.
Also, Mets officials privately expect Beltran back sooner than anticipated. Upon his return, Beltran likely would reclaim the No. 3 spot. So Reyes would face going back to the leadoff spot in May, further messing with his psyche.
* Mets officials cite success stories with the kind of arrangement they are proposing. For example, Florida’s Hanley Ramirez transitioned from leadoff to third last year and finished second in the NL MVP race. But Ramirez had hit 62 homers over the previous two seasons, making him more the prototypical No. 3 man.
The Mets also envision the speedy, switch-hitting trio of Pagan (or Matthews), Castillo and Reyes emulating the speedy, switch-hitting trio of Kenny Lofton, Omar Vizquel and Roberto Alomar from the 1999-2001 Indians. Those Cleveland players, however, were elite baserunners (Pagan, for example, is not) and are players who will receive Hall of Fame consideration, not exactly something that ever will be said about Castillo.