Just a few weeks ago, Beltway pun dits weren’t giving Scott Brown a snowball’s chance in his quest to win the Massachusetts Senate race. The polls had him 20 points behind in a state that hasn’t elected a Republican for Senate since 1972. Plus, he was running to replace Ted Kennedy, the “liberal lion” of the Democratic Party. His campaign was a nonstarter.
Yet Brown won — comfortably, in fact. The race wasn’t a nail-biter at all. The networks called it less than two hours after the polls closed.
Brown’s decisive victory offers a big lesson for Republicans. The 2010 midterm was bound to be a good one for the GOP. But it could be a historic one. If Republicans play their cards right, 2010 might be remembered as one of the great “wave” elections just like 1994, 1974 and 1946.
Voters are angry with Democratic-dominated government. They don’t appreciate President Obama’s inattention to the economy. They’re worried about skyrocketing deficits. And they despise ObamaCare.
Polls have been saying all this for months. Yet liberal commentators have argued that, even so, voters are not willing to support the discredited Republican Party. Brown’s decisive win explodes that argument.
Rasmussen Reports found that half of Bay State voters oppose ObamaCare; Scott Brown won more than 90 percent of that half. That’s hard evidence in support of the theory that Republicans are well-positioned to capitalize on voter anger. They’re no longer burdened by the memory of George W. Bush.
And the battle for control of the House of Representatives won’t be fought in deep-blue states like Massachusetts. A whopping 49 House Democrats come from seats that voted for John McCain last year, and many more from districts that voted for Bush in 2004. Republicans don’t need to win in the liberal Northeast to take back the House, but rather the conservative South and the moderate Midwest.
The question nervous Democratic pols are asking themselves today: If voters are so angry that they’ll vote Republican in Massachusetts, what chance do Democrats have in Florida, Ohio or Virginia?
But Republicans can only capitalize on this historic opportunity if they run good candidates. After all, you can’t beat something with nothing.
Now is the time for Republican insiders across the country to redouble their efforts at candidate recruitment. Their goal should be to find attractive candidates who can raise enough money, manage an effective campaign and articulate a clear message to the voters.
Oftentimes, the ideal candidate is a former office holder, like a state senator or representative. But at a time when voters feel that government at all levels is failing to get the job done, a smart businessperson or a tough federal prosecutor might be the perfect candidate to carry the GOP banner into the fall campaign.
The GOP has managed to place strong challengers in many House and Senate races, but big gaps still remain — most notably in the race for New York’s Senate seat. Appointed Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand is so weak that Harold Ford, who only recently moved to the state from Tennessee, is preparing to challenge her for the Democratic nomination.
Maybe it’s time for a top-flight Republican to toss his hat into the ring — which would mean ex-Gov. George Pataki. Or perhaps there’s a backbencher legislator or local official who could be New York’s answer to Scott Brown?
In any case, Republicans should look to place a strong challenger in virtually all of the 19 Democratic-held Senate seats up for election this year. If the GOP could snatch Ted Kennedy’s seat in Massachusetts, why can’t it defeat Ron Wyden in Oregon or Russ Feingold in Wisconsin?
As for the House, Republicans have had success at attracting good challengers for the swing districts so far, but the “Massachusetts Miracle” raises the stakes. The GOP’s goal should be to get a good challenge in all of those Republican-leaning districts. It should even look for recruits to run in Democratic strongholds, places where Republicans usually do poorly: This could be the year for GOP victories even in deep blue territory.
The sales pitch to would-be Republican challengers writes itself: If Scott Brown can do it in Massachusetts of all places, why can’t you? If you’ve ever wanted to be a member of Congress, this is the year to try it. It doesn’t get any better than this!
Jay Cost is the author of the Horse Race Blog at RealClearPolitics.com.