George Carlin once had a great line about an unidentifiable piece of leftover food he found in the back of his refrigerator: “Could be meat … could be cake.”
He could have been talking about Geno Smith, who could be great and could be awful. We wouldn’t know yet because Smith hardly played in preseason, turning his ankle in the first game, offering some great and some awful in the third game against the Giants, and sitting out two others. Can’t say he’s ready to lead the Jets to an upset win over the Buccaneers in the opener, but can’t say with certainty he’s not.
That’s what makes this a trickier pick than it would seem. The Bucs come in with a defense that gave up almost 380 yards a game last season, and the Jets have some more weapons than they’ve had, with Ryan Spadola, Kellen Winslow and possibly Santonio Holmes joining Stephen Hill and Jeremy Kerley.
But Smith has played so little, and hasn’t experienced anything close to the intensity of an NFL regular-season game. The suggestion here is you can’t bet on him until you have a better idea whether he’s meat or cake.
The pick: Bucs -3 ¹/₂
COWBOYS (-3¹/₂) over Giants
Giants were +14 in turnovers but averaged 28 yards per game fewer than they gave up. The Boys were -13 in turnovers but +19 in yardage differential. Those numbers suggest the Boys have an offense that’s ready to roar this year if Tony Romo can cut down on the giveaways. The Giants will get theirs with Eli Manning to Victor Cruz, and David Wilson will break some long ones, but they will miss having a power running game.
Patriots (-9¹/₂) over BILLS
Very similar to the Jets game with rookie EJ Manuel starting for Buffalo after missing time with an injury. Spread’s way larger, and Manuel has better help in C.J. Spiller and Stevie Johnson than Smith has. But Tom Brady put up 89 points in two games against the Bills last season.
Titans (+7) over STEELERS
Deep threat Mike Wallace is gone and Isaac Redman and retread Felix Jones now carry the ball for the Steelers. Big difference in the defenses (Steelers were No. 1 in yardage allowed, Titans worst in points allowed), but the talent gap in this matchup has shrunk to less than the full TD spread.
SAINTS (-3) over Falcons
Teams split two meetings last season when Sean Payton was suspended. He’s 10-2 lifetime against Atlanta, and returns to run his loaded offense, led by Drew Brees.
Chiefs (-4) over JAGUARS
KC was another team decimated by turnovers (a ghastly -24) in 2012. With Andy Reid on the sideline and reliable-if-not-dynamic Alex Smith under center, the Chiefs’ high-level talents Jamaal Charles and Dwayne Bowe will have a better chance to flourish.
Bengals (+3) over BEARS
Chicago presents an opposite case study in turnovers. The Bears were +20 last season but still were outgained by 5 yards a game. Without such a turnover edge, the Bears can sink fast. Expecting a lot from Andy Dalton and this Cincy crew.
Dolphins (pick) over BROWNS
Joe Philbin has a year’s edge in experience on new Browns coach Rob Chudzinski, and while QBs Ryan Tannehill and Brandon Weeden had similar stats as rookies, the arrival of Mike Wallace tilts this in the Dolphins’ direction.
PANTHERS (+3¹/₂) over Seahawks
Just way too much hype for Seattle. Cross country trip and early start are always hurdles for the Hawks, and they’ll have a tough tangle with Cam Newton and a Panthers team that won its final four to get to 8-8 last year.
LIONS (-5) over Vikings
Minny won both meetings last year. But Lions were killed by -16 in turnovers and have an offense ready to put up huge numbers, with Reggie Bush taking some of the load off Calvin Johnson.
COLTS (-9¹/₂) over Raiders
Gotta go with our Super Bowl champion selection, and against another debuting rookie QB in Terrelle Pryor.
RAMS (-4¹/₂) over Cardinals
Rams won twice by 14 against Cards last season, and people are expecting too much from hard-used vets Carson Palmer and Rashard Mendenhall in Arizona.
Packers (+4¹/₂) over 49ERS
You may never again see a QB run for 181 yards as Colin Kaepernick did against the Pack in a 45-31 playoff win last year. Green Bay was really banged up for that game, and adds bruiser Eddie Lacy to the offense. Good game and chance for upset.
MONDAY NIGHT
Eagles (+3¹/₂) over REDSKINS
No idea what you get when you cross Chip Kelly’s system with all of the Eagles’ weapons but it should be fun to watch. No one is sure what to expect from Robert Griffin III’s knee. And again, turnovers were the difference between these two teams last season: Eagles -24, Skins +17
Texans (-4) over CHARGERS
Norv Turner may have been the Chargers’ biggest problem but he wasn’t the only one. Mike McCoy adds Danny Woodhead, Manti Te’o and used-up Dwight Freeney to pretty much the same team that went 7-9.
BEST BETS
Texans, Patriots, Saints
LOCK OF THE WEEK
Texans