Rex Ryan left no doubt Thursday about his belief in rookie quarterback Geno Smith.
Asked about dialing back the offense to help Smith along, Ryan expressed his belief in Smith’s ability to run the full offense with no problem in Sunday’s season-opener with the Buccaneers.
“This is his offense now,” Ryan said.
But is that the wise choice? Should the Jets simplify Marty Mornhinweg’s offense to give Smith, and the team, a better chance to succeed?
The Jets argue Smith has learned Mornhinweg’s system since his arrival in April and that while less experienced than the injured Mark Sanchez, he has spent nearly the same amount of time studying Mornhinweg’s offense, which is new to Sanchez, too. Ryan also said they believe Smith is moving the way he was before he sprained his ankle last month, allowing him to play better than he did in the preseason.
Ryan and the Jets have been down this road before and they came up with a formula that worked — Ground and Pound. With Sanchez starting as a rookie in 2009, the Jets rode a bruising running game and a dominating defense all the way to the AFC Championship Game. Sanchez had his share of success, but the Jets’ strategy then was to limit what was asked of Sanchez and rely on other strengths to win.
That season the Jets ran the ball 607 times, the second-highest total in team history, and passed just 393 times. They had the No. 1 rushing offense and No. 1 total defense in the NFL that year. So, despite Sanchez’s 20 interceptions, the team went 9-7 and then got hot in the playoffs.
It does not sound like the Jets are considering the same type of plan this year, and definitely not this week against the Buccaneers, who were No. 1 in run defense last season and dead last against the pass.
“It’s probably not a good start if that’s really your plan,” Ryan said when asked about taking a Ground-and-Pound approach with Smith. “They did lead the league in run defense. I get what you’re saying. Clearly, yeah, you want to run the football. You go into every game and want to be able to run the football. We know what we’re up against. Geno’s got a good grasp of our system. We’ll see what happens.”
Last year’s Seahawks employed a similar strategy to the 2009 Jets with Russell Wilson, but not quite as extreme. Seattle ran the ball 536 times to 405 passes. The Seahawks also finished fourth in defense. Jets general manager John Idzik watched firsthand as a Seahawks executive.
Some of the other teams with rookie quarterbacks in 2012 did throw the ball more than they ran — the Colts, Dolphins and Browns all fell into that category. The Redskins ran the ball more, largely because of Robert Griffin III’s rushing ability.
So the key to Smith’s success may not be his own performance, but that of those around him.
“The other 10 players as well as the defense and special teams kick it up a notch,” Morhinweg said. “Really, that’s an important part of the thing for a young quarterback. Certainly schematically and the things going into the game plan — I may cross out a whole host of things here as we get to Friday and Saturday depending on our conversations, what the film looks like, how the Friday practice looks and those sorts of things. The rest of the players jacking it up a notch Is key.”
That leads to the question about the talent around Smith. Can Chris Ivory and Bilal Powell grind out yards like Thomas Jones did in ’09? Can this defense with seven new starters compare to that ’09 unit that smothered offenses? The only holdovers on the offensive line from those days are center Nick Mangold and tackle D’Brickashaw Ferguson.
“I think that always helps if you can balance the offensive attack,” Ivory said. “ I think that definitely can take some pressure off [Smith] by running the ball if we’re successful.”