The two Jets-Patriots regular-season meetings have produced a split decision, but it’s the 45-3 pummeling the Jets took in prime time on Dec. 6 that is stuck in the memory entering Sunday’s AFC divisional playoff game at Gillette Stadium.
How will coach Rex Ryan and the Jets turn the tables from that beating?
“We have to play fast and physical,” Ryan said. “That doesn’t mean we’re going to dummy it up. If you dummy it up against them, you’ll get crushed. I have to find the balancing act while keeping our team physical.”
Here’s a look at the matchups:
JETS PASS OFFENSE vs PATRIOTS PASS DEFENSE
Mark Sanchez threw three interceptions against the Patriots in the last meeting, but went 21-of-30 with three touchdowns and no INTs against the Patriots on Sept. 19. Sanchez has been awful in his two previous games in Foxborough, completing just 25-of-54 for 300 yards, no TDs and seven INTs.
Sanchez needs to hit some quick, short completions to his top wide-receiver weapons, Braylon Edwards and Santonio Holmes. He also must get tight end Dustin Keller involved. Keller had seven catches for 115 yards and a touchdown in the 28-14 win over the Patriots in Week 2. New England’s pass defense was ranked a 30th this season, yielding 25 touchdowns and 4,348 yards (misleading, though, because the Patriots were up big in many games, and opponents were forced to pass to try to catch up). Their best corner, rookie Devin McCourty, had seven INTs. At safety Patrick Chung is a tackling machine and Brandon Meriweather had three INTs.
Edge: Jets
JETS RUN OFFENSE vs PATRIOTS RUN DEFENSE
The Jets need LaDainian Tomlinson to have the same bounce in his step as he had last week in Indianapolis (83 rushing yards, two TDs). Their best chance to win is to control the ball with their running game. If the offensive line, along with RB Shonn Greene (70 yards against the Colts) and Tomlinson can do that, it keeps Tom Brady off the field. New England, which will use a myriad of different fronts to counter the Jets’ run game, is led by linebacker Jerod Mayo, who had an incredible 193 tackles this season.
Mammoth NT Vince Wilfork (87 tackles) is a load in the middle for Jets center Nick Mangold and guards Matt Slauson and Brandon Moore to deal with. LB Rob Ninkovich is active.
Edge: Jets
PATRIOTS PASS OFFENSE vs JETS PASS DEFENSE
Tom Brady (3,900 passing yards, 36 TDs, 4 INTs) dictates everything. He doesn’t make mistakes, and he throws the ball to everyone. Slot receiver Wes Welker is as dangerous as ever, particularly for the Jets, who have problems covering the middle of the field. Deion Branch stretches the field. And rookie tight ends Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski are fantastic in the red zone. The big question here is how the Jets use CB Darrelle Revis, who in the last meeting covered Welker a lot. Keys to the Jets defense will be how well their safeties Eric Smith and Brodney Pool and nickel and dime backs Drew Coleman and Dwight Lowery mark their receivers.
Edge: Patriots
PATRIOTS RUN OFFENSE vs JETS RUN DEFENSE
Despite not having a so-called star runner, the Patriots ranked No. 8 in rushing. They were led by BenJarvus Green-Ellis’ 1,008 yards and 13 rushing TDs. Danny Woodhead, the former Jet, had 547 rushing yards and five TDs and is a strong change of pace. The Jets’ bread-and-butter on defense is stopping the run. They ranked No. 4, allowing 90.9 rushing yards per game.
If they allow the Patriots to run the ball effectively, the Jets will be done as quickly as they were on Dec. 6. They need big games from linemen Sione Pouha, Mike DeVito and linebackers David Harris, Bart Scott, Bryan Thomas and Calvin Pace.
Edge: Even
SPECIAL TEAMS
The Jets, who usually have an edge in this area against most opponents, meet their match here. As good as kick returner Brad Smith is (28.6-yard average, two TDs), the Patriots counter with Brandon Tate (25.8, two TDs). The Patriots have a slight edge in punt returns with Julian Edelman averaging 15.3 yards (one TD return) to Jerricho Cotchery’s 8.3.
Edge: Even
KICKING GAME
Nick Folk (30-for-39 on field goals) is coming off his winning kick against the Colts, and his confidence is high. Shayne Graham is 12-of-12 on FGs for the Patriots, but has missed two PATs in his 37 attempts. Jets punter Steve Weatherford had his worst game of the season in the Foxborough blowout, but has been a reliable player for the Jets and is similar statistically to the Patriots’ Zoltan Mesko.
Edge: Even
COACHING
Rex Ryan is an emotional leader and master motivator who doesn’t get enough credit for his Xs and Os. Bill Belichick is a brilliant football mind who doesn’t get enough credit for his way of motivation ‹ through his preparation. Can Ryan outcoach Belichick Sunday? That will be difficult considering how lethal Belichick has been traditionally with extra time to prepare. Ryan needs to lean heavily on offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer to call a crisp game and be perfectly in sync with Mark Sanchez.
Edge: Patriots
INTANGIBLES
The Jets are not generally intimidated on the road, as evidenced by their 14-6 record under Ryan. But they have lost their last two at Gillette Stadium, neither game close. The Patriots are 60-12 in the regular season and 7-1 in the playoffs at home since 2002. Sanchez needs to prove he can handle the cold-weather elements at least as well as Brady, who has won an NFL-record 28 home games in a row.
Edge: Patriots
PREDICTION
The Jets don’t have the defense to stop Tom Brady enough to win this game. Brady, with all his weapons, will make just enough plays. The Jets will run, hit some big passes and keep this closer than last time, but it won’t be enough to overtake Brady, who is on a magical roll.
PATRIOTS 31, JETS 27